Direct vs Resale vs Renting over 10 years

[Bo1203]

Been trying to math these options against one another. Trying to do about a week long trip once per year. Let me know how you guys would do this different and hopefully this will be helpful for others.

Assumption #1 yearly dvc dues rising 3%. This is the historic average dvc dues have risen. Newer resorts seem to start higher and rise slower for a period of time.
Assumption #2 cost for renting points is $3,900 per year rising 3% every year. Last year we rented 12 days at Boardwalk sv studios for $2400. But you could easily spend double that at many other resorts depending at the time of year/view for just 7 days. You could also look at this figure being similar to getting a hotel room at $500-$600 night room.
Assumption #3 using approximate current resale prices for purchasing now and selling 10 years from now. I don't have a crystal ball.
Assumption #4 paying cash, not paying any interest. Although, on a dvc contract with 10% down and a 6%-8% interest rate paid off few years early, about $3,000 in interest could be worked in to this math.

Riveria direct-150 points at $207pp = $31,500 +
10 years worth of dues rising 3% year = $14,444.49 = $45,944.49 RR direct contract and dues over 10 Years

Grand Floridian direct-150 points at $207pp = $31,500 +
10 years worth of dues rising 3% year = $12,060.00 = $43,560.00 GF direct contract and dues over 10 Years

Saratoga Springs Resale - 150 points at $133pp + cc = $21,000 +
10 years worth of dues rising 3% year = $12,610.27 = $33,610.27 SS resale contract and dues over 10 years

Renting/hotel starting $3,900 year, rising 3% per year over 10 years = $44,709.13 Renting or Hotel for 10 years

If you sold at todays prices 10 years from now
Resale RR 150pp $22,500 = $23,444.49
Resale GF 180pp $27,000 = $16,560.00
Resale SS 130pp $19,500 = $14,110.27
Resale renting points $0 = $44,709.13


Approximate park tickets for 4 people 7 days park hopper $2,684.00. 10 years risings 3% per year = $29,389.05

Super approximate direct savings $500 per year in 10% savings on food, shops, free parking etc = $5,000 over 10 years
Resale or renting would also net you about half that amount in savings on parking alone.

Assumption #5 the longer you run this out, likely the more favorable it becomes for buying dvc
Assumption #6 you are going on vacation to Disney yearly, of course it be cheaper to just stay home.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

This only works if you're using points at each of those resorts to stay at the same resort, i.e. 150 points at VGF will get you a week at VGF, but 150 points at SSR is going to get you a week and a half at SSR.

 

[Bo1203]

Definitely, where you use your points would determine the point chart and length of stay for that trip.

Another cost you could also lop into renting points/hoteling it is trip insurance. We've only rented points the one time and during covid, felt like such a major risk to pay for the points and risk not being able to go.

 

[Ruttangel]

I wouldn't assume any direct perk savings as they can be pulled, just look at AP sales discounts. Not guaranteed.
I wouldn't include inflation as the dues increases are weighted later in contract cycle so SSR may be 8% and VGF/RIV 4%, just guessing.
Using historical data then 8-12 years break even on resale and 12-15 on direct.
As far as comparing contracts then the extra 200 resort studios at VGF might mean you can get these at 7 months with a SSR contract. Again, I'm speculating

 

[Bo1203]

I wouldn't assume any direct perk savings as they can be pulled, just look at AP sales discounts. Not guaranteed.
I wouldn't include inflation as the dues increases are weighted later in contract cycle so SSR may be 8% and VGF/RIV 4%, just guessing.
Using historical data then 8-12 years break even on resale and 12-15 on direct.
As far as comparing contracts then the extra 200 resort studios at VGF might mean you can get these at 7 months with a SSR contract. Again, I'm speculating

Never safe to assume anything, I know! But hey right now there's some savings may or may not stick around. If you increased the dues at a higher percentage which is a total possibility, it won't have a drastic effect in the next 10 years of the contract. The later years will be majorly impacted.

For example Riveria dues rising at 3% for 10 years = $14,444.49. At 10 years 6% =$16,607.80

Years 11-20 at 3% =$19,412.18. Years 11-20 at 6% = $29,742.04

 

[Sandisw]

Personally I do not consider resale value as part of the equation. IMO, it’s a bonus to get some of your buy in cost back when sold. But I think SSR will hold the least value of all those.

I still believe that you should own at a resort that you are happy to stay at and that is where the decision should start.

In terms of RIV, if you want to stay there, and any future resorts that could come along, you have to buy direct. If not, your forced to do other things as SSR resale points bought now are restricted from booking there.

In terms of perks, the potential is there buying direct for any that are offered. Resale does not but I wouldn’t use those figures again other than potential savings

I lokw having points good where I want to use them and think the extra for direct that one would spend assuming you don’t want to just stay at SSR, given current incentives is worth it in the long run. But, financially, I wouldn’t put it into the equation because those can be changed.

SSR is going to be the easier of those to book as a non resort owner. RIV SV rooms will be the hardest as a non owner

VGF has the highest points chart of the 3 but currently MFs are slightly more at RIV.

So it really comes down to priority of where you will be happy. DVC is too much $$$ to buy something to save a few thousand now and end up frustrated or discouraged because you try to trade out and can’t.

I own all 3. RiV is tops and worth the extra we paid. VGF is second and most trips are always split stays with both.

SSR are my sleep around points to use to upgrade rooms at those places,,,or to book nights at those resorts at 7 months if they are still available and then cancel my home resort booking and save those for the following year.

 

[Bo1203]

Thanks Sandisw, appreciate your insight and advice. We're leaning towards GF or RR, just because we'd prefer to stay there and longer contracts. But SS maths out nicely even not considering reselling. We have flexible schedules, its intriguing to roll the dice at 7months at other resorts or buy a few extra points and go for 1bedrooms.

 

[Ruttangel]

Thanks Sandisw, appreciate your insight and advice. We're leaning towards GF or RR, just because we'd prefer to stay there and longer contracts. But SS maths out nicely even not considering reselling. We have flexible schedules, its intriguing to roll the dice at 7months at other resorts or buy a few extra points and go for 1bedrooms.

If you are actually on the fence on those 2 resorts then remember your figures where VGF is worth more after 10 years and you will likely pay less dues. Only downside is the proportion of studios to 1/2BR.

 

[Her Dotness]

Have you factored in the impact of location?

As Sandisw indicated, there's a reason why SSR so often is bought as "sleep around points," and that's because it doesn't offer easy-speedy access to a park. With RIV, you've the Skyliner to get you to Epcot and DHS. You're practically in the MK at VGF, and that gorgeous new walkway is a convenient means of getting to MK as well as down to the TTC if you don't mind a bit of a hike. (About 40-45 minutes from MK to TTC, we found.)

Seriously, one reason we bought at VGF is that it's about a 10-minute monorail ride from MK.

Location, location for whatever parks you frequent most.

I'd advise what we did at VGF--buying a sizable chunk of points at whichever of the two, RIV or VGF, really zings for you and then adding on some SSR SAP points later. We haven't yet added SSR but probably will for an SSR bookend if we can't find any other resort we fancy for arrival night. We like a DVC "campout" upon arrival and then move over to VGF for the real stay, where we unpack and settle in. We also go for only a single week annually.

Easy park access may be a bigger factor than you've considered thus far unless you're not that into the parks or are looking at a DVC home base for excursions off-property.

 

[Bo1203]

If you are actually on the fence on those 2 resorts then remember your figures where VGF is worth more after 10 years and you will likely pay less dues. Only downside is the proportion of studios to 1/2BR.

Wish we could free trial stay at both for a night lol. Walked them and ate at the restaurants our last trip. They are both great, with great parks nearby. Pretty amazing what resale on GF has been and Disney priced it at $207p minus what ever incentive they may have. RR resale is still pretty good though given those resale restrictions.

Have you factored in the impact of location?
Location, location for whatever parks you frequent most.

Totally, I'd have no real intentions of staying at SS (new rooms look great and we like eating DS) I'd be trying at 7 months to go anywhere else. Looking at availability charts and being flexible I think it could be done, although that could change and be stuck.
Can I wake up at GF to go to MK and and go to bed at RR after Epcot?

 

[Ruttangel]

Pretty amazing what resale on GF has been

Likely that no VGF will get taken back while in active sales (unless it's selling super fast) so if you get a VGF resale at $150 or under then also worth considering although you couldn't stay at RIV with that

 

[Lumpy1106]

I wrote a spreadsheet when we bought BLT resale just before the restrictions kicked in. We compared, not to renting points to stay at the same property or staying on the cash side, but instead staying where we would have otherwise - an AoA family suite. The DVC MFs increase based on real costs while the AoA rack rate increases on "Disney" inflation. I think we assumed 3-5% for the MF inflation and double that for the AoA rack rate. Here we are, 3 years later and that has proven to be about right. We calculated a "payoff" time of about 10 years, not considering selling. In the decision process, we couldn't really see it making sense for a time period a lot longer than that.

From experience now; the spreadsheet doesn't matter. If you are happy with your purchase, you are happy with your purchase. No regrets here. We stayed at BLT in 8/2020 when we would have definitely cancelled any other trip had we not bought DVC. That was once-in-a-lifetime crowd-wise and we had a blast. We also stayed at BWV and I had never dreamed of staying there and would not have if we had not bought DVC. It's hard to put a value on those kids of experiences.

 

[Bo1203]

I wrote a spreadsheet when we bought BLT resale just before the restrictions kicked in. We compared, not to renting points to stay at the same property or staying on the cash side, but instead staying where we would have otherwise - an AoA family suite. The DVC MFs increase based on real costs while the AoA rack rate increases on "Disney" inflation. I think we assumed 3-5% for the MF inflation and double that for the AoA rack rate. Here we are, 3 years later and that has proven to be about right. We calculated a "payoff" time of about 10 years, not considering selling. In the decision process, we couldn't really see it making sense for a time period a lot longer than that.

From experience now; the spreadsheet doesn't matter. If you are happy with your purchase, you are happy with your purchase. No regrets here. We stayed at BLT in 8/2020 when we would have definitely cancelled any other trip had we not bought DVC. That was once-in-a-lifetime crowd-wise and we had a blast. We also stayed at BWV and I had never dreamed of staying there and would not have if we had not bought DVC. It's hard to put a value on those kids of experiences.

Comparing to the cash side of RR or GF would really make DVC look like an outstanding purchase. My thought was comparing to average rental price BWV, AK etc being low end for 7 days and GF, RR being on the high end.

What do you mean by "increase based on real costs"? Good to hear from someone who bought recently and feels like it was a good decision. Love the doc holiday tombstone avatar.

 

[Her Dotness]

Totally, I'd have no real intentions of staying at SS (new rooms look great and we like eating DS) I'd be trying at 7 months to go anywhere else. Looking at availability charts and being flexible I think it could be done, although that could change and be stuck.

Weelll, okay, then, if you're sure you wouldn't mind laying out as much money as points cost for "potluck" bookings at 7 months. Just sayin', I think you'll find yourself doing mostly split stays, stalking to get a full week somewhere or waitlisting if you're buying SSR for that purpose.

Most DVCers put the bulk of their points where they really prefer staying so they've got a stay they know they'll enjoy if nothing appealing comes along at 7 months.

Can I wake up at GF to go to MK and and go to bed at RR after Epcot?

Sure can if you adopt our arrival one-nighter custom. Dump your stuff at VGF and head for MK, sleep over, and then have Disney transport your bags to RIV while you spend the day at EP.

We don't usually waste a park ticket on a half day so just use that arrival one-nighter to check out another DVC resort. But, whatever suits.

 

[Lumpy1106]

Comparing to the cash side of RR or GF would really make DVC look like an outstanding purchase. My thought was comparing to average rental price BWV, AK etc being low end for 7 days and GF, RR being on the high end.

What do you mean by "increase based on real costs"? Good to hear from someone who bought recently and feels like it was a good decision. Love the doc holiday tombstone avatar.

MFs are based on what things really cost. They estimate what it will cost to run, maintain and update your home resort and you pay your share of what those costs are based on how many points you own. When the minimum wage in FL increased, so did MFs. When things got shut down and things like buses were reduced, so were MFs (we got a credit). That also includes things like breakage and regular room updates, a fresh coat of paint, whatever, but it's the actual cost of those things without a markup. What they charge for rack rate at any on-site hotel is whatever the market will bear - and as long as people are flocking to the parks and filling the rooms that can be whatever Disney wants - and it is.

Just as an aside, and not to stir the pot on something we can do nothing about, but it was shocking how little or dues were affected by the removal of DME. You might have noticed that room rack rates didn't go down either but I was less shocked by that.

 

[Bo1203]

Weelll, okay, then, if you're sure you wouldn't mind laying out as much money as points cost for "potluck" bookings at 7 months. Just sayin', I think you'll find yourself doing mostly split stays, stalking to get a full week somewhere or waitlisting if you're buying SSR for that purpose.

Most DVCers put the bulk of their points where they really prefer staying so they've got a stay they know they'll enjoy if nothing appealing comes along at 7 months.

My Scrooge side just see's the $10k upfront savings... Longer term the less hassle/stress at 7months, longer contract, possible savings of direct perks, should probably go GF or RR. Anyone just uses points at 7months at not home resorts with success?

I got you Lumpy, the first time I read the real costs I was like how is he predicting the actual future costs lol. I re-read you said 3-5%.

 

[Sandisw]

Wish we could free trial stay at both for a night lol. Walked them and ate at the restaurants our last trip. They are both great, with great parks nearby. Pretty amazing what resale on GF has been and Disney priced it at $207p minus what ever incentive they may have. RR resale is still pretty good though given those resale restrictions.



Totally, I'd have no real intentions of staying at SS (new rooms look great and we like eating DS) I'd be trying at 7 months to go anywhere else. Looking at availability charts and being flexible I think it could be done, although that could change and be stuck.
Can I wake up at GF to go to MK and and go to bed at RR after Epcot?

If you know you don’t want to be at SSR, I recommend not buying there.

That leaves the other two. Which room size do you want? I think studios at VGF, if you are okay with the resort studios, will be easier at 7 months than the SV ones at RIV…which I already mentioned.

And, I definitely wait up to MK and go to bed to Epcot almost every trip because we split stay!

The thing about 7 month booking is it is dependent on when you travel and how many nights as well as room sizes.

Mid September to mid January are very busy DVC times. Getting the near park resorts during that time is difficult if you don’t own any of them, especially for studios .

Now, if you travel in summer, then you will have more success but you may not have an option for the rooms that are less points.

Nothing is impossible, but getting what you want elsewhere may not be easy

 

[Brian Noble]

Been trying to math these options against one another. Trying to do about a week long trip once per year. Let me know how guys would do this different and hopefully this will be helpful for others.

I personally think that the MouseSavers analysis is pretty good.

https://www.mousesavers.com/other-disney-vacations/disney-vacation-club/

 

[RivShore]

Been trying to math these options against one another. Trying to do about a week long trip once per year. Let me know how guys would do this different and hopefully this will be helpful for others.

Assumptions #1 yearly dvc dues rising 3%. This is the historic average dvc dues have risen. Newer resorts seem to start higher and rise slower for a period of time.
Assumption #2 cost for renting points is $3,900 per year rising 3% every year. Last year we rented 12 days at Boardwalk sv studios for $2400. But you could easily spend double that at many other resorts depending at the time of year/view for just 7 days. You could also look at this figure being similar to getting a hotel room at $500-$600 night room.
Assumption #3 using approximate current resale prices for purchasing now and selling 10 years from now. I don't have a crystal ball.
Assumption #4 paying cash, not paying any interest. Although, on a dvc contract with 10% down and a 6%-8% interest rate paid off few years early, about $3,000 in interest could be worked in to this math.

Riveria direct-150 points at $207pp = $31,500 +
10 years worth of dues rising 3% year = $14,444.49 = $45,944.49 RR direct contract and dues over 10 Years

Grand Floridian direct-150 points at $207pp = $31,500 +
10 years worth of dues rising 3% year = $12,060.00 = $43,560.00 GF direct contract and dues over 10 Years

Saratoga Springs Resale - 150 points at $133pp + cc = $21,000 +
10 years worth of dues rising 3% year = $12,610.27 = $33,610.27 SS resale contract and dues over 10 years

Renting/hotel starting $3,900 year, rising 3% per year over 10 years = $44,709.13 Renting or Hotel for 10 years

If you sold at todays prices 10 years from now
Resale RR 150pp $22,500 = $23,444.49
Resale GF 180pp $27,000 = $16,560.00
Resale SS 130pp $19,500 = $14,110.27
Resale renting points $0 = $44,709.13


Approximate park tickets for 4 people 7 days park hopper $2,684.00. 10 years risings 3% per year = $29,389.05

Super approximate direct savings $500 per year in 10% savings on food, shops, free parking etc = $5,000 over 10 years
Resale or renting would also net you about half that amount in savings on parking alone.

Assumption #5 the longer you run this out, likely the more favorable it becomes for buying dvc
Assumption #6 you are going on vacation to Disney yearly, of course it be cheaper to just stay home.

We did some similar calculations a few years ago before buying and came to similar conclusions. We ended up buying at RR and have been very happy with it so far!

And I'll add that we compared to our usual stays at POR, we projected DVC to cost about the same over time for a much much improved room.

 

[Bo1203]

If you know you don’t want to be at SSR, I recommend not buying there.

That leaves the other two. Which room size do you want? I think studios at VGF, if you are okay with the resort studios, will be easier at 7 months than the SV ones at RIV…which I already mentioned.

And, I definitely wait up to MK and go to bed to Epcot almost every trip because we split stay!

The thing about 7 month booking is it is dependent on when you travel and how many nights as well as room sizes.

Probably studios, maybe a 1 bedroom if we borrow points, do a shorter trip. Jan-May is when we tend to go to Florida, hoping to do a Dec use year. That would be a great split stay, I'm jealous!

I personally think that the MouseSavers analysis is pretty good.

That's a great article thanks. All about seeing these others calculations, like their spreadsheet.