Dining Plan Math (2016 and 2017 edition) [now with spreadsheet link]

[Faldred]

(a/k/a: Applying High School Algebra to the Real Word)

I did something like several years back, but it's a good reference so I thought I'd repeat it, using 2016 and 2017 prices.

Edited to add: here's a spreadsheet if you want to plug in your own numbers.

2016
===

Note: these prices appear to be the DVC prices from early 2016 - please use the spreadsheet or repeat the math if you need to plug in different prices.

To determine the average cost per credit for the dining plans, it’s best to represent the entitlements as an a equation that sums up to the dollar cost of the plan. There are four components to consider: quick service credits (Q), table service credits (T), snack credits (S), and the rapid fill mug (M, prorated to per-night basis):

2Q + S + M = 42.84
T + Q + S + M = 61.84​

Four unknowns, two equations. Not a good situation. Let’s clean it up a little.

I treat the mug as a souvenir item, and any use you get out of it is a bonus. Plus, it makes the math easier as the retail price of the mug varies based on length of stay. Therefore, the mug value (M) is treated as $0/night.

After that, we’re down to three unknowns but still only two equations. Things get a lot easier if we make one of the unknowns a known. Snack credits (S) have the least potential variability in absolute dollar value, and for the purposes of this exercise, I’m setting it to $4, as most snack items are in the $3-$6 range. The math can be re-run with a different value for S if you think $4 is not an accurate number.

So, let’s re-write our original equations into a form easier to solve:

2Q = 42.84 - S - M
T = 61.84 - Q - S - M​

Subbing in our M and S values:

2Q = 42.84 - 4 - 0 = 38.84
T = 61.84 - Q - 4 - 0 = 57.84 - Q​

We can now solve for Q directly by dividing both sides of the first equation by 2:

Q = 19.42​

And plug that in to solve for T

T = 57.84 - 19.42 = 38.42​

Solving for Deluxe Dining is easier, because we don’t have to differentiate between table service and quick service, just deluxe meal credits (D):

3D + 2S + M = 111.73
D = (111.73 - 2S - M) / 3 = (111.73 - 8 - 0) / 3 = 103.73 / 3 = 34.58​

You can solve for children’s credits (q, t, and d) similarly, and get:

q = 6.74
t = 10.22
d = 8.17​

Ok, now that you have these numbers, how do you use them? Well, they represent the “break even” value of each credit, assuming you’re paying full price for the dining plan of your choice.

So, the first thing to remember about that is that “break even” shouldn’t be treated on a credit-by-credit basis, but as an overall average - it’s okay to go under that value sometimes, as long as you’re going over it often enough to not lose money on the proposition. That said, if paying for the basic dining plan, it’s going to be hard to average much higher than $38 per table service credit, and you may need to “make up for it” by maximizing quick service and snack choices.

Also, remember that when comparing to menu prices, sales tax is already included in the dining plan, so add 6.5% to most menu prices (unless they specifically include tax) for comparison. [I believe some value resorts are in a different tax jurisdiction and charge 7% at their food courts.] For that $38.42 basic TS credit, that’s $36.08 actual menu price and $2.34 sales tax - so you should base your “break even” amount based on the $36.08 menu list price.

Since you’re tipping based on what’s actually ordered, tips should be a wash for comparative items.

Feel free to re-run the math with different values for M and S if you disagree with my assumptions, in order to see how the price points are affected. A spreadsheet may be helpful if you want to run a variety of scenarios.

2017
===

The math changes a bit, not just in numbers, as an extra snack has been added to QSDP and DDP. Our base equations (for adults) turn into:

2Q + 2S + M = 46.34
T + Q + 2S + M = 67.33​

New credit values (again, using M=$0 and S=$4):

Q: $19.17 (caveat: this is now entree + beverage only, no dessert)
T: $40.16
D: $31.86​

q: $6.09
t: $10.13
d: $9.87
​

Commentary:

As always, remember that averages matter more than per-credit savings/cost, and that dining plan credits include sales tax, so add 6.5% to cash menu prices to get an accurate comparison (7% at value resort food courts). Or, alternatively, divide the values above by 1.065 to get the pre-tax equivalent cost.

I continue to question the value of the QSDP and basic DDP plans; you really have to work hard to do better than break even, and if you have to do that, is the pre-paid convenience really worth it that much? Seems like the plans are heading into the only worth it as part of a "free dining" package territory. DxDP, on the other hand... if it suits your style of dining, it continues to be a good deal, and even better this year with a roughly 10% price drop for adults.

The lower DxDP meal credit price actually makes the California Grill and Narcooses brunches a more clear-cut "win" for adults. In 2016, it was mostly a wash, saving maybe the tax amount on the check. In 2017, two credits clearly cost less than the listed cash price for these meals.

 

[sharonabe]

Your 2016 prices are too low. The price of the QSDP is $44.13/19.04; DDP is $63.70/22.85; and DxDDP is $115.08/35.49

You may want to redo the math or just let everyone do it on their own. There's only three months left to the year anyway.

 

[Faldred]

Thanks for the heads-up (I may have missed a price increase or I'm using a DVC rate if it differs from the public one - no idea where I got the numbers from in my notes). I should really just make a spreadsheet and post/link it so people can plus in whatever values they like; starting with next year, as long as the entitlements don't change again, you should just have to update plan prices and assumptions for "M" and "S" for successive years, price increases, etc.

Maybe when I have a free hour or two...

Edit: Original post updated to include a link to a spreadsheet.

 

[sharonabe]

Thanks for the heads-up (I may have missed a price increase or I'm using a DVC rate if it differs from the public one - no idea where I got the numbers from in my notes). I should really just make a spreadsheet and post/link it so people can plus in whatever values they like; starting with next year, as long as the entitlements don't change again, you should just have to update plan prices and assumptions for "M" and "S" for successive years, price increases, etc.

Maybe when I have a free hour or two...

Your prices do look like the DVC prices for 2016. I don't remember when the price increase came along, but it seems like it was late spring/early summer.

 

[Ratzo]

I remember there was an Excel spreadsheet years ago that allowed you to plug in your meals to get a pretty darn good estimate if the DDP was worth it. From what I remember, going to a two point restaurant like the Brown Derby on the regular (non-Deluxe) plan pretty much wiped out any financial advantage. Conversely, going to a one point restaurant on the deluxe plan was even worse.

 

[Faldred]

My basic analysis is that unless you're getting better value out of the snacks and refillable mug than I'm assuming in the model, QSDP and basic DDP are essentially not worth paying for, period. (Edited to add: well, if you're traveling with multiple children aged 3-9, it might be a different story, as those tend to be better value.)

Deluxe is a totally different story. If it fits your dining style, the average pre-tax cost of $30/credit makes it super easy to break even or far better, as long as you're not letting credits go unused or use too many on counter service. At a 1TS location, even ordering "low end", say a $6 appetizer, $15 entree, $6 dessert, and $3 drink breaks even. Ordering a higher-end entree can even let you skip an appetizer or dessert and not lose money.

Example: At Skipper Canteen, the lowest priced items in each category includes hot & sour soup ($7.50), curried vegetable stew ($17.50), any dessert ($8), and let's say $2.50 for a soda for a total of $35.50.

If you didn't feel like a dessert, you could order the arepas ($9.50), char siu pork ($24), and a soda ($2.50) for a total of $36.

In both cases you're well ahead of the $30/credit value on deluxe without having to immediately jump to the highest-priced items on the menu.

If you were trying to maximize absolute dollar value, the noodle salad ($11), steak ($34), dessert ($8) and Schweitzer slush ($5.50) comes to a total of $58.50, but the point is that you don't have to "maximize" credit value in order to break even or save money on deluxe like you do on the basic DDP.​

As for 2TS vs. 1TS, in almost all cases, assuming you're ordering from analogous choices, the 1TS is going to be a better "value" than the 2TS, regardless of whether it's basic or deluxe dining. Mostly because signatures don't typically cost twice as much across the board as a regular restaurant.

Still, just because the sheer amount of food (and time!) involved, it's still recommended to start your deluxe planning with the idea of a 1TS and a 2TS per day. Despite being less "value" than 1TS, it's pretty doggone easy to get over $60 pre-tax with an appetizer, entree, dessert, and beverage at a signature.

Example: Or even if you don't order all four. At California Grill, you could just order a middle-of-the-road entree like the swordfish ($47) and a cheese board for appetizer or dessert ($21) and already be ahead of the game, without even a beverage or one of appetizer or dessert.
​

 

[Faldred]

2018 Updates:

Plugging in a value of $5.00 per snack credit and valuing the refillable mug at $0, I get the following break-even costs per credit:

CS - Adult $21.25 (compare to $19.95 pre-tax), Child $5.88 (compare to $5.52 pre-tax)
TS - Adult $44.24 (compare to $41.54 pre-tax), Child $10.75 (compare to $10.09 pre-tax)
Dx - Adult $35.42 (compare to $33.26 pre-tax), Child $10.00 (compare to $9.39 pre-tax)

 

[DisneyWife2015]

I did a cost analysis on our last trip back in May. The reason the DDP works for our family is because our children are at an age where they can share a QS meal so we are able to get more meals out of our plan. For instance: We were given 28 QS meals (4 ppl X 7 nights) but instead of using 4 per day, we only used 3. That gave us 9 meals (with 1 credit leftover so we had one QS meal that they didn't share). TS is a little different because we did a few character meals where we had to use all 4 AND they do not allow children to order adult meals at TS so the portions were smaller and they ate the entire kids meal on their own. I saved all the receipts (we took a picture of it instead of trying to keep up with the actual papers) and entered the amounts in my own spreadsheet. In the end, we saved $482.32 for the entire week. We really liked the change of the dessert from QS meals to a snack credit. We used the credits for occasional on-the-go breakfast items, late night ice creams, and of course Flower and Garden food booths. In fact, we used 19 of our 56 snack credits at EPCOT (most ranging from $5-$7)! We are planning a trip without kids this coming Dec during the free dining promotion. We'll do another analysis and see if it would have been worth the money for just two people.