How will I know if it’s gonna run at RD? Like should they be actively running empty test cars as people are queuing when the park first opens?
You'll have to get there to see.
Thats why it's a risk...nobody knows if it will be running BUT it is running more than it isn't so the odds are in your favor. If you do get there and it's closed, thats where the decision comes in and the big payout can really come through. Most people at that point will turn around and go somewhere else so you can do what most people do and end up waiting longer for wherever you go and still have an extended wait for Text Track later in the day OR stay put and keep your fingers crossed.
Last week we always stayed put and had a mixed bag of results.
1st attempt - we rope dropped universal and went straight to hagrids over velocicoaster. It was down and we waited probably close to an hour, by the time we got off there was lightenting in the area, Velocicoaster was down and when it reopned and we got there it was already an hour wait
2nd attempt - rope dropped magic kingdom, held at adventure land and went to splash / thunder. Stayed to the left, went to splash and it was down. Almost everyone turned around and went to thunder plus everyone that was going to thunder to begin with. We stayed put, waited MAYBE ten minutes and watched the standby time at thunder jump to 45 almost immediately. Got off splash
walked on thunder and the wait at splash was up to 50 minutes
3rd attempt - rope dropped HS and made our way to slinky dog. We were just to the point where you would tap your MB the second time for FP and they shut it down (after it being ran for the first 10/15 minutes or so. Announcement came on and said the ride would be closed for an unknown amount of time...of course, CMs wouldnt say why but we could literally see them trimming limbs near the track so we waited. After 45 minutes they finally came out and gave us FPs for later in the day
A lot of people say go later in the evening, but here is the recent reality for Test Track. It looks like it is pretty constant.
Yep...for the most part, all day is going to be a long wait. After 8 is really when things "level off"...not so much of a drop but it does tend to level off