Current crowds: Temporary boost? Or permanent shift?

[modavi]

Hey, just wanted to get some opinions on the current crowds at the parks. Do you think that they will be temporary and short lived just due to pent up demand over the last 2 years? Or do you believe this signals a more permanent shift that is unlikely to change any time soon?

Cheers

 

[kanerf]

A lot of this is pent-up demand from being house-bound for almost two years. I think things will go back to normal levels next year.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Perceived crowding and actual attendance are two different things.

Perceived crowding has been elevated because things still aren't 100% open. Most theater shows are back, but Meet & Greets are still modified or unavailable, plus a lot of streetmosphere and roving entertainment. That should all be temporary.

I think things will go back to normal levels next year.

Epcot is going to get weird when Guardians opens while half the park is still a mud pit. They were supposed to have Play! open in time to help absorb some of those crowds, but obviously COVID had other plans for the construction timeline. Then the second giant domino will fall when Tron opens at MK.

I think you're right about post-COVID pent-up demand leveling out over the next year, but these are some major new attractions that will skew individual parks like we haven't seen since Galaxy's Edge and Pandora.

 

[modavi]

That’s an interesting point about perceived vs actual attendance. I know Disney doesn’t publish attendance numbers but I wonder if there are any ways to get an objective estimate of actual crowd numbers?

 

[sponica]

I think it'll be weird this year for lots of reasons.

You have 2 years of trips being taken over the same period of time and I think a good number of people are preferring to travel domestically for the time being, so people might be doing their once and only or once in a long while trip this year.

People might bump out to later this year to get Guardians in Epcot and/or Tron whenever that opens.

 

[revdon64]

I've heard it referred to as "revenge travel." It seems to me that it is a combination of pent-up demand and decreased staffing. I'm guessing that it will never quite look and/or feel like it did before Covid. Staffing will never quite return to pre-pandemic levels. Attendance will decrease. Prices will continue to go up.

 

[Darcy03231]

I think the crowds are temporary and will level off by next year. There's a lot of pent-up demand for travel, some people have rescheduled trips due to cancellations in 2020 and 2021, some have expiring DVS points, and some people have opted to not do any international travel until things are more back to "normal."

 

[lockets]

I think it will stay busy through 50th celebration then cool somewhat after that. My 2 cents FWIW

agree with others that ride/show closures = crowded areas

agree with others that new rides = crowded areas

 

[MakiraMarlena]

pretty sure elevated crowds for the next year, maybe two. The big issue is going to be staffing. Right now they don't have enough staff to handle the demand to the level they did before COVID.

 

[disneyseniors]

pretty sure elevated crowds for the next year, maybe two. The big issue is going to be staffing. Right now they don't have enough staff to handle the demand to the level they did before COVID.

I wonder about the staffing at disney. Is it because they are holding off re-hiring of staff? I have heard that former CM's and staff are waiting to hear of being rehired. I actually think disney is holding off for a while.
I understand that Universal has all their staff back? Is this true? If this is true, then that's great and makes me wonder why disney can't or won't do it. I know that Universal is smaller so there's that.

 

[dd316]

It should be busy all this year for the reasons stated above. Next year is the real wild card, I'm leaning towards it being less crowded mainly because of so many negative reports from the past few months which is setting a terrible precedent. I think many people who would plan on coming back again are bitter their latest "revenge trip" didn't meet their expectations and will be looking elsewhere for future vacations. But then who knows how Disney will start dropping their pants if occupancy starts waning? Free dining again?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

It should be busy all this year for the reasons stated above. Next year is the real wild card, I'm leaning towards it being less crowded mainly because of so many negative reports from the past few months which is setting a terrible precedent. I think many people who would plan on coming back again are bitter their latest "revenge trip" didn't meet their expectations and will be looking elsewhere for future vacations. But then who knows how Disney will start dropping their pants if occupancy starts waning? Free dining again?

I think a lot of those people will be disappointed when they "look elsewhere" and realize that COVID didn't just make Disney worse, it made everywhere worse. Don't like the labor shortage taking away daily housekeeping at Port Orleans French Quarter? Come on down to Ocean City, New Jersey where the labor shortage will have you waiting 45 minutes for some fish tacos. Don't like inflation's impact on QS F&B prices at Cosmic Ray's? Come on down to Lake Compounce where chicken strips and fries are $14.99.

 

[lockets]

I wonder about the staffing at disney. Is it because they are holding off re-hiring of staff? I have heard that former CM's and staff are waiting to hear of being rehired. I actually think disney is holding off for a while.
I understand that Universal has all their staff back? Is this true? If this is true, then that's great and makes me wonder why disney can't or won't do it. I know that Universal is smaller so there's that.

I was wondering this too.

 

[Darcy03231]

I think a lot of those people will be disappointed when they "look elsewhere" and realize that COVID didn't just make Disney worse, it made everywhere worse. Don't like the labor shortage taking away daily housekeeping at Port Orleans French Quarter? Come on down to Ocean City, New Jersey where the labor shortage will have you waiting 45 minutes for some fish tacos. Don't like inflation's impact on QS F&B prices at Cosmic Ray's? Come on down to Lake Compounce where chicken strips and fries are $14.99.

We just got back from 5 days in New Orleans and a 7 day cruise. We did the whole trip including hotels, airfare, food, entertainment, etc. for under $4000. We had daily housekeeping at our hotel, twice a day house keeping on the cruise, and all of the food was excellent. Entertainment was also top notch. I wasn't disappointed at all.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

We just got back from 5 days in New Orleans and a 7 day cruise. We did the whole trip including hotels, airfare, food, entertainment, etc. for under $4000. We had daily housekeeping at our hotel, twice a day house keeping on the cruise, and all of the food was excellent. Entertainment was also top notch. I wasn't disappointed at all.

Yes, cruises are basically begging people to get on board right now.

I just got back 2 nights at a ski resort in Pennsylvania. Lodging alone was $800 for the two nights and the place was an absolute pit.

 

[snikki]

I don’t think it’s a permanent shift but I don’t think the crowds are as bad as they seem. With not everything being opened the crowds look worse than what they actually are. Let’s see once fantasmic opens, once character meets are back to normal, CoH is back (if it ever comes back), more restaurants open to suck in more crowds (HDDR!), etc.

I also haven’t been disappointed with any of my covid vacations either. We did Poconos and had a lovely Airbnb that we paid a decent price with and did snow tubing and other excursions in the area. I think it really depends on where you go.

 

[gharter]

I expect to see this for at least a year. There were a lot of trips cancelled and a lot of DVC points banked that need to be used. Hoping I'm wrong, but not likely.

 

[Westerner]

I think crowds - or more pertinently, higher wait times - at formerly offpeak periods like Jan/Feb are here to stay. Disney has said they are looking to equalize demand throughout the year through dynamic pricing and probably other measures - it’s a more efficient operational model because its easier to plan ride capacity and staffing. Another way to explain this is to think of Jan/Feb as a period with historically underused capacity. Good for the guest (low waits) but wasteful of resources. Disney is engineering that inefficiency out of the system.

So it no longer matters as much when you go and the silver lining is holiday periods are better than they used to be.

 

[RoseGold]

Like all of you, I plan Disney for everyone I know. The last few trips I've planned were for people who couldn't go abroad with border/work/school restrictions, and settled for Disney. They built the droids and spent the cash, but they won't be back. Chapek is really happy with these customers, but I don't see how they are sustainable.

If this really was Covid, travel restricted travel, then the big spenders already did it, demand will go down, and APs should come back. I can also see this correcting in a year if normal travel becomes an option again.

Honestly, if this were my first Disney experience, with a genie demanding a pound of flesh at 7AM, $8 sugar milk, and a $150 light saber, I'm not sure I would go back either. Reviews are not good. Even I am telling people to go to Universal.

I think the solution for one-off visitors and big spenders is the hard tickets. I can see those expanding. Get ready for Halloween in July! For me, as an AP cheapskate, there might not be a solution. If demand is really this high, and APs don't come back, then I'm going to have to be out.

 

[revdon64]

I think a lot of those people will be disappointed when they "look elsewhere" and realize that COVID didn't just make Disney worse, it made everywhere worse. Don't like the labor shortage taking away daily housekeeping at Port Orleans French Quarter? Come on down to Ocean City, New Jersey where the labor shortage will have you waiting 45 minutes for some fish tacos. Don't like inflation's impact on QS F&B prices at Cosmic Ray's? Come on down to Lake Compounce where chicken strips and fries are $14.99.

I hear what you're saying, but we went to eastern Tennessee on vacation last year and it was great... and much cheaper than going to Disney. Just sayin'