Curious when glut of backed-up points will be used?

[🍀TwinsMom]

Hi! I thought DVC had extended foreign owners a grace year to bank their points/extend their usage -- but then no one has been able to come over anyway. Between those points wasted/banked and the domestic points, is there a year/season that the lost/banked points will be used up naturally and we might see the borrowing restrictions lifted? Am I making sense? LOL. Just curious when all the points will have been worked through the system.

 

[New Mouse]

Hi! I thought DVC had extended foreign owners a grace year to bank their points/extend their usage -- but then no one has been able to come over anyway. Between those points wasted/banked and the domestic points, is there a year/season that the lost/banked points will be used up naturally and we might see the borrowing restrictions lifted? Am I making sense? LOL. Just curious when all the points will have been worked through the system.

In theory the answer has to be never... by simple math there will always be excess points in the system. The only way for points to be eliminated is if they flat out expire. It will ease up down the line, but not any time soon.

 

[Matty B13]

I think people forget that not all DVC members are power users like here on Disboards, and will let points expire because either the owner can't travel or doesn't want to be bothered. So even though there are a lot of points sitting on the sidelines right now, this surplus could disappear in a year or two. If we knew what DVC usually made from breakage on points we would have a better picture, but unfortunately we will never get that answer.

 

[CarolMN]

IMO, there will come a point when DVC will remove the borrowing restrictions even though a "glut" still exists. While I completely support what they have done to mitigate the impact of the closures on the Members who stood to lose their points, much of that mitigation came at the expense of other Members, who lost the flexibility to borrow all of their points. DVC "spread" the pain over a larger group of Members (and gave up the use of many of the points they controlled as well). At some point, DVC needs to remove the borrowing restrictions and return the flexibility that borrowing provides. When that happens, Members will have to book early and pay careful attention to banking deadlines - those who don't will end up with expiring points. Some will lose points. I believe this is inevitable.

IMO, the earliest the borrowing restriction will be removed is is after international travel restrictions are lifted.. My prediction for borrowing restrictions to be lifted is for reservations beginning sometime in 2023. But my guess is as good as anyone else's.

 

[ckb_nc]

Excellent question; one that I asked earlier. I think 2022 and 2023 will be tough to get reservations at some point. I was always borrowing points from my December use year into the current year and now banked points.

 

[Fangorn]

IMO, there will come a point when DVC will remove the borrowing restrictions even though a "glut" still exists. While I completely support what they have done to mitigate the impact of the closures on the Members who stood to lose their points, much of that mitigation came at the expense of other Members, who lost the flexibility to borrow all of their points. DVC "spread" the pain over a larger group of Members (and gave up the use of many of the points they controlled as well). At some point, DVC needs to remove the borrowing restrictions and return the flexibility that borrowing provides. When that happens, Members will have to book early and pay careful attention to banking deadlines - those who don't will end up with expiring points. Some will lose points. I believe this is inevitable.

IMO, the earliest the borrowing restriction will be removed is is after international travel restrictions are lifted.. My prediction for borrowing restrictions to be lifted is for reservations beginning sometime in 2023. But my guess is as good as anyone else's.

Agree completely with this. I'm not expecting the restrictions to be lifted until 2023 - probably mid year. It'll take that long to work most of that glut through the system. I'm going to lose a few points (<10) myself this year. I'm looking at it as my contribution to the good of the whole.

Steve

 

[ScarSimone]

Totally used - never.
addressed enough for the issue not to be so noticeable - 5 years - just a guess,
too many rental options, giving to friends, etc. I think it will help as international travel opens up and not everyone in the US has to vacation in the US.
I myself would not let one nights point total for a studio expire unless there was just no availability.

 

[Sandisw]

I am with Carol in that I too think it will be for reservations that start in 2023

 

[TCRAIG]

I’m hoping it’s 2022 but suspect it’ll be 2023…

 

[BigDaddyLaBouff]

I am with Carol in that I too think it will be for reservations that start in 2023

I am hoping for the under!! I say two years from the date it was implemented... I think that would be summer 2022... fingers crossed!

 

[Stargazer65]

I am with Carol in that I too think it will be for reservations that start in 2023

Yes at the very latest. It has to be lifted by 2023. They don't have a choice on going beyond that because I'm planning to max out my SSR points for a Treehouse reservation in 2023.

So let it be written, so let it be done...

 

[crisi]

I saw today that DVC is letting you use FOUR years of points for Adventures By Disney trips. That might help with the glut. It will also help with using points for those of us who aren't sure we want to go back to WDW for a while yet (With less than 50% of the U.S. population vaccinated and most of the world in much WORSE shape, anyone who is immunosuppressed is probably going to be avoiding Disney for a few years).

 

[JETSDAD]

I saw today that DVC is letting you use FOUR years of points for Adventures By Disney trips. That might help with the glut. It will also help with using points for those of us who aren't sure we want to go back to WDW for a while yet (With less than 50% of the U.S. population vaccinated and most of the world in much WORSE shape, anyone who is immunosuppressed is probably going to be avoiding Disney for a few years).

Letting people use points on exchanges won't help with the glut of points, it just changes who is booking those points.

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

I think the timeline depends largely on how much of the membership regularly loses points because they fail to bank on time, cancellations where points go into holding and end up not getting used, etc. But then again, if Disney just rents out the rooms via breakage that those points would have been used for, availability remains limited.

I know that it's wishful thinking, but it seems like DVC should not claim the excess availability in these situations for breakage when they have months worth of excess points in the system. Any breakage from people not being able to use their points should go back into the availability pool for other members to use up more of those excess points.

 

[ScarSimone]

I think the timeline depends largely on how much of the membership regularly loses points because they fail to bank on time, cancellations where points go into holding and end up not getting used, etc. But then again, if Disney just rents out the rooms via breakage that those points would have been used for, availability remains limited.

I know that it's wishful thinking, but it seems like DVC should not claim the excess availability in these situations for breakage when they have months worth of excess points in the system. Any breakage from people not being able to use their points should go back into the availability pool for other members to use up more of those excess points.

Isn't this kinda what Disney has been doing? Were they not using broken Poly points to rent out poly rooms for cash while the cash side was closed? They were kinda using DVC rooms to fill deluxe hotels requests - WL, BC, etc. However, I followed Poly availability for a long time early this year and there was literally multiple rooms available the next day, every day, so a lot of Poly point must have been broken, so that should have helped some, correct? Or am I seeing this incorrectly?

 

[Brett Wyman]

I think theres a big chance it wont revert at all. At least not for many years. Remember there were restrictions when DVC first started with just OKW. So having them now is more like taking it back to how it originally was, not necessarily taking something away. But bottom line is Disney/DVC will do it when it benefits them in some way, not us.

We are resale only so we used this time to do a cash stay at the Riviera(which we love) with the 40% off AP incentive getting us out of the required borrowing window.

 

[CarolMN]

I know that it's wishful thinking, but it seems like DVC should not claim the excess availability in these situations for breakage when they have months worth of excess points in the system. Any breakage from people not being able to use their points should go back into the availability pool for other members to use up more of those excess points.

There is so little available at the 60 day mark these days that I doubt there is very much inventory actually going to breakage. That may not have been true last year or even earlier this year when many DVC members didn't want to travel. But it doesn't seem to be true now. Members (except the international members) are traveling and those that aren't, are renting their points to others.

In fact, I think that rental activity has increased a lot compared to pre-COVID and that is where quite a bit of what used to go to breakage is actually getting used by members. My opinion is based on the R/T activity right here on the Disboards, which is only one of the many places available to owners to offer points for rental.

I've said this before. Disney did not have to do anything to help members who lost points because of the closures. We owners assumed that risk when we purchased. Disney is not a charity. I sincerely applaud them for what they have done for Members caught up in the pandemic and while I sympathize with those who lost or will lose points, I do not expect Disney to make anyone whole.

 

[Bearval]

Hi! I thought DVC had extended foreign owners a grace year to bank their points/extend their usage -- but then no one has been able to come over anyway. Between those points wasted/banked and the domestic points, is there a year/season that the lost/banked points will be used up naturally and we might see the borrowing restrictions lifted? Am I making sense? LOL. Just curious when all the points will have been worked through the system.

Not sure when the " glut" of points will be used up but I am willing to bet the point restrictions will go away as soon as the international travel restrictions are lifted and WDW is fully opened and staffed.

 

[ScarSimone]

There is so little available at the 60 day mark these days that I doubt there is very much inventory actually going to breakage. That may not have been true last year or even earlier this year when many DVC members didn't want to travel. But it doesn't seem to be true now. Members (except the international members) are traveling and those that aren't, are renting their points to others.

In fact, I think that rental activity has increased a lot compared to pre-COVID and that is where quite a bit of what used to go to breakage is actually getting used by members. My opinion is based on the R/T activity right here on the Disboards, which is only one of the many places available to owners to offer points for rental.

I've said this before. Disney did not have to do anything to help members who lost points because of the closures. We owners assumed that risk when we purchased. Disney is not a charity. I sincerely applaud them for what they have done for Members caught up in the pandemic and while I sympathize with those who lost or will lose points, I do not expect Disney to make anyone whole.

Availability has TOTALLY changed, because of demand, and you are right, not much will go into breakage. Not the case just a few months ago. Lifting of the masks was a big one. Having been there end of April and dealing with it, I wondered about September when it would be hotter...not an issue any more.

As far as making owners whole - Disney is under no obligation to do so. And frankly if they could do it for a nickel I think the current CEO would say no, save that nickel.

 

[MomOTwins]

I do think that as studios are hard to come buy, many people with "studio points" are suddenly renting 1 brs and 2 brs, and people who used to rent suites are now splurging on a night in a cabin. Some of those rooms would have just sat empty or gone to cash rezzies in a normal year. So it's not just a matter of everyone banking every year and carrying forward points indefinitely--the points are getting used slowly but surely.

It'll also help when they make VGF2 available to book at 7months. Give folks somewhere to use their points instead of banking.