Crowds this Friday?

[disneymoon0606]

I checked the touring plans crowd calendar for this Friday and it anticipates very low crowds. This seems off to me, considering it's Memorial Day weekend, and I also think the Disneyland half marathon this this weekend.

Anyone have other insight on how the crowds will be Friday? We'll just plan to go another day if it's going to be crowded.

 

[amyg1975]

I hope it is correct- we will be there on Friday!

 

[figment_jii]

I would not go expecting low crowds this weekend (Fri to Sun). Marathon weekends, coupled with being a three-day weekend (Labor Day) for many, usually result in fairly high crowds in the parks (especially in the evenings). IsItPacked.com, another crowd calendar, has Friday as "Yup, It's Packed", so it'll be interesting to hear reports back on what it's like in the parks.

 

[chrisaman]

It is always really busy Friday Saturday Sunday and Monday Labor Day weekend because of the races. I have been there this weekend the past 4 years. The mornings are very light though because everyone is late to the parks due to the runs so take advantage of that

 

[disneymoon0606]

You're all confirming what I suspected. I just can't figure out why tp has it listed as a low crowd day. We were going to go for the evening, but maybe we'll skip it.

 

[Girimama33]

Touring Plans is notoriously incorrect in predicting crowd levels at Disneyland Resort.
My crystal ball does a better job, and it is telling me it will be crowded.

Check out this thread to see why...http://www.disboards.com/threads/wh...ans-website-dlr-crowd-calendar.3196851/page-3

 

[V.I.N.C.E.N.T.]

You're all confirming what I suspected. I just can't figure out why tp has it listed as a low crowd day. We were going to go for the evening, but maybe we'll skip it.

Send TP an email. I've questioned predictions in the past via email and they have always responded.

 

[disneymoon0606]

Send TP an email. I've questioned predictions in the past via email and they have always responded.

I sent one this morning. Hoping I hear back from them.

 

[tarheelalum]

It's a holiday weekend and the weather is going to be in the 80s after weeks of super hot weekends. I'd expect it to be packed.

Be there at rope drop to get the most out of your day and have a great time.

 

[LisaT91403]

Also, just an FYI that the Los Angeles Unified School District is off this coming Friday. I'm guessing a ton of people will be going on Friday since it's an "extra" day off (rather than braving the crowds on Monday, which is a holiday for all rather than just for some).

 

[disneymoon0606]

This was the email response I received from them this evening:

Thanks for contacting us! We stand behind our numbers and in our experience they are accurate within one index point 90% of the time. Historically, the last week of the summer is a slow week and last year it was extremely slow. We saw some of the lowest wait times of the year in the last week of August. Yes,LaborDay falls later than usual in September but I don't see why that would change anything. September is always very slow and we expect it to be that way this year as well.
It is worth noting that although the calendar uses historical data it is not simply a restatement of what we saw last year with the dates shifted to account for holidays. It is a complex statistical model that measures hundreds of factors then makes the best prediction possible.

Disneyland is always crowded but the wait times are expected to be low.



So, I don't know. The main reason we want to go is to see paint the night and the fireworks. Worth it, or wait a couple weeks until our next opportunity to go and hope it's not too hot then?

 

[valerie160]

Touring Plans had the days we were there as being not too crowded (3 or 4 on their scale or something?), but it was the first Sunday that all the passholders were unblocked since the summer so the crowds on Sunday and Monday were huge. That being said, we showed up at rope drop every time and didn't stand in line for more than 15min max at any ride (utilizing ridemax helped as we were able to figure out a strategy for FP and basically zigging when people were zagging).

We saw PTN that very crowded monday night and got pretty good seats right behind the benches at about 7 (can't remember if it was an 8 or 8:30 show). But if you feel like that is a long time to wait and you have the opportunity to see it again in a couple of weeks when crowds may be better, it's really up to you whether you'd like to put in the time to wait. That being said, I loved the PTN parade and the fireworks. They did an amazing job

 

[figment_jii]

Disneyland is always crowded but the wait times are expected to be low.

So, this points out something kind of interesting. I went back and looked up Touring Plan's DL predication for last year's marathon weekend. They predicted 2 on Friday, 4 on Saturday, and 3 on Sunday. The "actuals" turned out to be 4 on Friday, 5 on Saturday, and 3 on Sunday. They noted that "Sunday of the Disneyland Half Marathon weekend brought in thousands of runners but wait times in the parks remained well below yearly averages, as predicted". This would seem to indicate that TP bases their crowd calendar predictions on attraction wait times, but doesn't really reflex number of guests in the parks. So it can be useful to determine attraction wait times, but doesn't necessarily reflect how "busy" the park feels or how busy the non-attraction areas of the parks (e.g., parade route, fireworks viewing areas, etc.) may be on a given day.

 

[BobearQSI]

They predicted 2 on Friday, 4 on Saturday, and 3 on Sunday. The "actuals" turned out to be 4 on Friday, 5 on Saturday, and 3 on Sunday.

Don't forget Labor Day itself! Anyone here and all over the internet will tell you Labor Day weekend is busy. Touringplans predicted a 2 for DL on Labor Day last year. The actual value? A 6.

I checked the touring plans crowd calendar for this Friday and it anticipates very low crowds. This seems off to me, considering it's Memorial Day weekend, and I also think the Disneyland half marathon this this weekend.

I did a little analysis awhile ago - they've been regularly under by 2-3 levels for the whole summer Diamond Celebration. You can see graphs and my take on it here:
http://www.disboards.com/threads/touringplans-crowd-calendar-mini-review.3434827/

One thing I noted was they seem to be the most wrong on holidays. I re-did it for the first half of August recently and also found more of the same.

Also, I e-mailed them too specifically about Labor Day, last year's failure, with links to the Disneyland estimates on their website and even mentioned California Adventure. They responded with simply a blog post about why Disney World wasn't going to be busy this Labor Day. In other searching, they seem to always respond the same way to other people: "Our predictions are based on very complex calculations and are accurate, so don't just go with your gut."

For PTN and Fireworks, you're probably better off doing a weekday in the week after Labor Day.

 

[figment_jii]

Don't forget Labor Day itself! Anyone here and all over the internet will tell you Labor Day weekend is busy. Touringplans predicted a 2 for DL on Labor Day last year. The actual value? A 6.

I know that Labor Day is going to be "busy" in the parks, but my point was more about how Touring Plans using wait times to predict crowds and doesn't necessarily take into account how crowded a park feels nor what kinds of crowds guests can expect for shows and non-attraction items.

I think your analysis is pretty interesting and does seem to point out that TP still has issues with DLR. So, while it is useful and can be helpful, it should be the only source of crowd estimates that someone uses. In that way it's nice that folks have things like Touring Plans, IsItPacked, and other calendars to try and get a sense of whether it'll be busy or not in the parks. It's like anything that tries to predict the future, take everything with a grain of salt and try to get as many opinions as possible and hope to reach/find a consensus.

 

[The_Banking_Scot]

Hi,

On Labor day ( I was there from 9am to 11am) the park got progressively busier ( busiest of the three days) . Radiator springs races was at 90mins standby by 10am or so with fast passes being issued fro late afternoon. Grizzly River Rapids had a 65 min standby time at 11am and fast pass returns were queuing at the main entry point. Queues for restauants were already out to the main doors ( Smokejumpers grill)

 

[amyg1975]

Friday was really light, compared to what we normally see!

 

[disneymoon0606]

I agree! I'm so glad we decided to go!