The combination of tribal knowledge thinking summer crowds are huge (it used to be very true 6+ years back). Plus more affordable local silver and lower passes being blacked out in June and July. Plus a reduction in global crowds have actually resulted in somewhat better summer crowds than you might expect.
In recent years it keeps changing if June or July is somewhat busier.
While still summer hot, earlier June might have a better chance of missing a week of heavier than typical rain. when there’s a typical afternoon storm, outdoor rides close, but people don’t leave because tickets are expensive and they still have FP booked.
The worst part about summer is Disney knows about reduced crowds and doesn’t keep parks open to midnight+ (was great with hotter temps) like they used to do.
