crowd predictor for dlr?

[cyndi harrison]

Hi, all! We've been to wdw a few times, and are now planning our first trip to dlr. Is there something comparable to touring plans' wdw crowd predictor which can predict approximate crowd sizes at dlr? We are trying to decide between a trip the first week of February (avoiding presidents' day weekend), or the third week of May (avoiding Memorial day weekend). Does anyone know if there is a noticeable difference in crowds between those two weeks? We will be there on weekdays only.

thanks,
cyndi

 

[Leofoenget]

Hi, all! We've been to wdw a few times, and are now planning our first trip to dlr. Is there something comparable to touring plans' wdw crowd predictor which can predict approximate crowd sizes at dlr? We are trying to decide between a trip the first week of February (avoiding presidents' day weekend), or the third week of May (avoiding Memorial day weekend). Does anyone know if there is a noticeable difference in crowds between those two weeks? We will be there on weekdays only.

thanks,
cyndi

The week (that monday and that week) after Mother's day is a wonderful time to visit. Weather perfect and low crowds. I have gone this week a few times. The week before Presidents day week is pretty good too although the weather could be a bit more unpredictable.

 

[HydroGuy]

Hi youngster!

There is nothing at DLR like the crowd predictors site for WDW. The demand is just not there.

Some might jump to the conclusion that it is because DLR is so much less popular than WDW. There is some truth in that because DLR draws at most half the people than WDW (two parks vs. four).

But an even bigger reason is the crowd mix. WDW draws 85% of its visitors from outside its geographic region and most of those are there on longer vacations. Hence there is a high demand for crowd prediction far in advance.

DLR is situated in a densely populated area (20 million people in SoCal) and draws only 30% of its visitors from outside SoCal. So it is more of a "locals" resort. Most of those visitors are not on vacation at DLR and are in fact day trippers. And DLR has 800,000 AP holders of which some 90% are from SoCal.

Bottom line here is that most SoCal day trippers do not care for crowd planning and just go to DLR whenever they decide to go and deal with whatever crowds happen to be there.

With all that said, here are some trends you can consider:

1. DLR is more of a locals park and in general has more lumpy attendance than WDW. Weekends and holiday weekends tend be more crowded than weekdays and the difference tends to be larger than you would find at WDW.

2. DLR's SoCal AP holders can really swing attendance at certain times of the year. See "The Psychology of the DLR Annual Pass Holder" http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2244322

3. You can use historical DL park hours as an indicator of expected crowds. Here is the guide:

8AM-Midnight - High crowds
9AM-10PM - Moderate crowds
10AM-8PM - Light crowds

4. DLR off-season crowds have surprised people in recent years for being busier than anticipated for some visitors. Even so, there are more downsides to visiting DLR than WDW in off-season. See "What You Should Know About Off-Season at DLR" www.disboards.com/showthread.php?p=18462889

HTH

 

[disneymama83]

Hi youngster!

There is nothing at DLR like the crowd predictors site for WDW. The demand is just not there.

Some might jump to the conclusion that it is because DLR is so much less popular than WDW. There is some truth in that because DLR draws at most half the people than WDW (two parks vs. four).

But an even bigger reason is the crowd mix. WDW draws 85% of its visitors from outside its geographic region and most of those are there on longer vacations. Hence there is a high demand for crowd prediction far in advance.

DLR is situated in a densely populated area (20 million people in SoCal) and draws only 30% of its visitors from outside SoCal. So it is more of a "locals" resort. Most of those visitors are not on vacation at DLR and are in fact day trippers. And DLR has 800,000 AP holders of which some 90% are from SoCal.

Bottom line here is that most SoCal day trippers do not care for crowd planning and just go to DLR whenever they decide to go and deal with whatever crowds happen to be there.

With all that said, here are some trends you can consider:

1. DLR is more of a locals park and in general has more lumpy attendance than WDW. Weekends and holiday weekends tend be more crowded than weekdays and the difference tends to be larger than you would find at WDW.

2. DLR's SoCal AP holders can really swing attendance at certain times of the year. See "The Psychology of the DLR Annual Pass Holder" http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2244322

3. You can use historical DL park hours as an indicator of expected crowds. Here is the guide:

8AM-Midnight - High crowds
9AM-10PM - Moderate crowds
10AM-8PM - Light crowds

4. DLR off-season crowds have surprised people in recent years for being busier than anticipated for some visitors. Even so, there are more downsides to visiting DLR than WDW in off-season. See "What You Should Know About Off-Season at DLR" www.disboards.com/showthread.php?p=18462889

HTH

Thanks! This is great info

 

[Leofoenget]

Do you mean 8pm-Midnight high crowds? Meaning the locals come out after work?

smile added

 

[HydroGuy]

Do you mean 8pm-Midnight high crowds? Meaning the locals come out after work?

Since you did not add a smilie your post read like it was a serious question, and if so I did not mean that because DLR never opens at 8PM.

I know you know that. It is true of course that there can be an evening crowd surge because of local AP holders with easy park access - especially on Friday nights.

 

[HydroGuy]

Do you mean 8pm-Midnight high crowds? Meaning the locals come out after work?

smile added

 

[Albort]

Weekdays are generally more busier than Sat. However, Fri and Sun are still the busiest 2 days followed by the weekdays and sat comes in last...

 

[HydroGuy]

Weekdays are generally more busier than Sat. However, Fri and Sun are still the busiest 2 days followed by the weekdays and sat comes in last...

Do you want to clarify whether this is high season or always? It seems if it is true year round that DLR would increase park hours on weekdays in off-season and decrease them on Saturdays because of the reduced crowds.

Also, I am curious if your vaunted CM status and high CM pay gives you access to any Disney publications which show daily park attendance? I wish those attendance numbers were more available to the public somehow but Disney does not operate that way.

Anyways thanks for the input from someone who is there regularly. BTW I looked for you last month at DCA. After checking lots of ODV name tags I gave up because but it was never you.

 

[Delilah Bleu]

For the last 3 years we have gone to the first weekend of February. The crowds were much smaller than when we have gone both at Thanksgiving and during July or August. The kids were able to walk on to most rides (ie. Big Thunder, Matterhorn, Space Mountain 20 min).The only down side for us was the weather. Two years ago it was much milder (i.e. sweatshirts at night). Feb of 09 was freezing for us. We wore jackets and long pants and wished we had gloves and scarfs. We still enjoyed our trip we just didn't stay in the park as long. We are alredy planning for Feb 5-7, 2010!

 

[alvernon90]

The week (that monday and that week) after Mother's day is a wonderful time to visit. Weather perfect and low crowds. I have gone this week a few times.

Perhaps things have changed, then. I went the third week in May this year and the crowds were amazing. Lines for Splash Mountain, Space Mountain, and Indy were consistently more than an hour. Even the Matterhorn had lines pushing an hour except in the first couple of hours after opening. We even waited nearly 45 minutes to ride IASW. Heck, we waited 20 minutes to buy a Coke from an ODV cart. Some lines were surprisingly short given how crowded the rest of the park was (like Jungle Cruise) but on the whole the experience was pretty shocking.

Also, it was hot.

 

[Leofoenget]

I don't know what to say, but I have been 2x after spring break but before Memorial day and it was quite nice. Maybe EVERYONE had the same idea.

 

[HydroGuy]

I went on a day trip to DL and DCA on May 16 (the Saturday after Mother's Day) and it was amazingly uncrowded. I was very surprised. One indicator was being able to walk onto Dumbo 30 minutes after park opening and 90 minutes after Magic Morning started. Jungle Cruise was a walk-on at 10:30AM. HM was a walk-on at 11:30AM.

 

[alvernon90]

I went on a day trip to DL and DCA on May 16 (the Saturday after Mother's Day) and it was amazingly uncrowded. I was very surprised. One indicator was being able to walk onto Dumbo 30 minutes after park opening and 90 minutes after Magic Morning started. Jungle Cruise was a walk-on at 10:30AM. HM was a walk-on at 11:30AM.

I guess I should have gotten there a day earlier! We went from the 17th to the 20th and the only time Dumbo was a walk-on was the first couple of rides of each day. On Sunday Dumbo wasn't even a walk-past because the queue spilled out into the main walkway and created a bottleneck.

I noticed that the scheduled hours for that week were longer than for the same week in 2008, but I suspect that the suits still did not sufficiently plan for the increase in crowds they knew was coming. I think if they had more staff it wouldn't have seemed so crowded.

 

[jernysgirl]

Also know that you will have better luck with the entertainment schedule and refurbs in May than you will in Feb.

 

[HydroGuy]

I guess I should have gotten there a day earlier! We went from the 17th to the 20th and the only time Dumbo was a walk-on was the first couple of rides of each day. On Sunday Dumbo wasn't even a walk-past because the queue spilled out into the main walkway and created a bottleneck.

I noticed that the scheduled hours for that week were longer than for the same week in 2008, but I suspect that the suits still did not sufficiently plan for the increase in crowds they knew was coming. I think if they had more staff it wouldn't have seemed so crowded.

Well, as I said I was surprised. I was planning to hit Matterhorn at 8:15 and move on because I assumed FL would be swamped. But when I glanced over and saw no lines for anything there we switched gears. We walked onto Dumbo, Alice, Tea Cups and Toad all between 8:30 and 8:45. Maybe it was a fluke. But a pleasant fluke.

 

[CelticBelle]

i just wanted to bump this and ask if anyone has any predictions for the crowd levels this weekend. I'm hoping for it to stay slow, but things are looking against that. The half marathon is this weekend (thats why were coming) and the weather looks like it will be cooler, and since the new dragon just premiered im getting kind of worried. Any have any info? I'd greatly appreciate it!

 

[Hound 109]

Hi, all! We've been to wdw a few times, and are now planning our first trip to dlr. Is there something comparable to touring plans' wdw crowd predictor which can predict approximate crowd sizes at dlr? We are trying to decide between a trip the first week of February (avoiding presidents' day weekend), or the third week of May (avoiding Memorial day weekend). Does anyone know if there is a noticeable difference in crowds between those two weeks? We will be there on weekdays only.

thanks,
cyndi

cyndi,

Along with all the excellent advice given in previous posts, you might want to consider one small change to your plans above. If you are going off peak (per HydroGuy's post that would mean a 10am or 9am Gen. Adm. start time), then you wouldn't enjoy the Fireworks or possibly other attractions that are dark except for Fri/Sat/Sun.

Also, you definitely want to see Aladdin (which is dark two days during the week). You might want to do a Sun - Wed visit (for example) instead of a Mon - Thurs........(or a Tues - Fri vrs. a Mon - Thurs)

Have a great time planning a visit to Walt's park.

 

[Krissy Marissy]

I would expect decently large crowds this weekend. The only thing that may help is that a lot of kids were supposed to start school and are either bogged with homework or are preparing to start tuesday. So maybe some families will stay away, they are getting back into their schedules.


However it is a holiday weekend and usually that means crowds. Being so late in the year should lessen them a bit but then you throw in the marathon. So just plan on big crowds and if they are low you'd be pleasantly surprised.