Crowd predictions after covid?

[lcomp]

I’m looking to book a trip (hopefully) to Disney World at the beginning of May 2021. I was hoping to get some opinions on predictions of crowd levels at that time. I’m not sure if they’ll be worse because cancelled trips are rebooking or better because people still won’t be traveling. Thoughts?

 

[fabfemmeboy]

Honestly? There are way too many question marks to say for sure. Just offhand, a few of the variables in my mind would be:
-Is there a vaccine? If so, when? Is it early enough for people to book summer trips in 2021, or not until late spring so people are traveling further out?
-What does the economy look like? Are people still out of work? If so, a lot of people might not be able to afford a vacation.
-What are schools doing? Did they start back early in fall 2020, like some are talking about? Are any of them ending early as a result? (I think this is the least likely scenario, but some schools out here are talking about going to a shifted or split schedule or even moving to tracks so 1/3 of students would be out of school at all times).
-How long has everything been reopen? Think about all the people rebooking 2020 trips. Airlines are generally giving people a year to rebook, Disney is giving incentives for certain times but allowing full cancellation and rescheduling later, etc. Right now, most people who had spring 2020 trips planned seem to be rescheduling for summer or fall 2020. If they don't reopen, or only partially reopen, or people are still afraid to fly, etc. for fall 2020, then the people who had spring OR summer OR fall trips planned in 2020 would be rescheduling for 2021. On top of people who had already planned to go in 2021 for the anniversary.
-What does air travel look like? Still dirt cheap? More expensive because they can't use middle seats? Are people still nervous about flying because for some reason half the country can't work out how to put a mask over both their mouth and nose at the same time? Are there more flights? Fewer?
-What does international travel look like? (Less likely to impact early May than other months, either for spring break or summer vacation, but still. If I would normally go to Europe but I can't because of travel bans, I may go to Disney instead. And if international travelers can't come here, that would decrease crowds).
-What is Disney doing financially? Did they increase costs to make up for the loss? Or did they, like after 2001 and 2008, start adding promotions on promotions to try to entice people back? Can I get free tickets if I sew masks for the local nursing home? Does everyone get free dining now? Or are they blocking out half their hotel rooms to prevent the parks from reaching capacity?

Unfortunately, answering your question is kind of like answering "How long is a piece of string?" There are just too many unknowns to have a reasonable answer at this point. If I were going to guess, off the top of my head, based on what I know today, I would say less crowded than usual with mostly die-hard fans, making lines shorter but ADRs and FP+ harder to get because it'll be people who know how to plan stuff well in advance. But I'm guessing than 5 people could come up with 15 answers and all of them would be equally likely to be correct.

 

[siren0119]

Came here to say exactly the same thing.

what happens in the next six months will probably give us a better idea of what May next year *might* look like, but a LOT can happen in six months so right now it's basically impossible to say. Nothing we know about past years is going to be helpful in predicting the next 12 months at Disney.

 

[StageTek]

It's so hard to predict, isn't it?

Reading the DIS Boards I get a 55/45 vibe. A small majority (55%) aren't going anywhere until this pandemic is considered over. But that slight minority (45%) is ready to get out and enjoy the Magic. And, of course, the folks here are huge Disney fans.

Let's say that Disney keeps the 50% capacity for 6 months - July 1 to December 31. It will be like a lottery - people going nuts to get the few admissions, people stressing over getting in to the parks.

I can already feel the comments; who says it will open on July 1. Who says it will stay at 50%. Just my speculation to make a point.

Anyway...

That could mean a huge surge in 2020 lasting well into summer and the 50th Anniversary celebration. People who couldn't get in during the limited opening, people who had to postpone a booked trip and people who didn't feel comfortable going so soon might flock to the parks in big numbers.

I predict HUGE crowds in 2021.

 

[Mainsail Minnie]

Here is my prediction for all of 2021:

If the virus is still going around and no viable vaccine is available to most Americans, then crowds will be lighter than is usually the case at that time of year.

If the economy is in the gutter due to damage from the closure period, then crowds will be lighter than is usually the case at that time of year.

If the virus magically disappears or a viable vaccine is developed and made available to the whole country, and if the economy bounces back almost as if this never happened, then crowds will be insane.

So as I said, crowds will be lighter than usual in 2021.

 

[Madhattermad]

I think crowds will be lighter because i) COVID-19 will hit peoples pockets and less people will be travelling globally ii) flight prices are going to jump up in light of various companies struggling or collapsing in a post COVID-19 world and iii) those that are still travelling will push back to the end of the year for 50th Anniversary celebrations. I

f the parks stay closed until late summer or the end of the year, maybe it will be busier but I still predict lighter than a usual year.

I personally don't think a vaccine will make a jot of difference, if they find one, it's likely to help the most vulnerable not a normal healthy person much like the flu jab but they still don't have one for SARS 12 years later, so I wouldn't hold out hope for that solution anyways.

 

[peaceluv&mickeymouse]

I am thinking insane crowds. Everyone re booking for 2021. Plus the 50th. But who knows. . Time will tell.

 

[Madhattermad]

...this is like a fun game of predict the future love the divergent views!

Like 'the big bang theory' TV show we should pose possible scenarios and take them to a crazy conclusion. For example....

In a post COVID-19 world where all Disney cruises are cancelled for 2020...all of those Disney nerds jump ship (yup pun intended) to a parks holiday and May 2021 crowds become unmanageable

[I'm quietly amusing myself here, I think lockdown fever may be finally breaking me]

 

[Future_WorldPhonencian]

My 2 cents: No one knows not even Disney. In terms of the 50th, a current rumor is that the 50th will start on the actually 50th anniversary: October of 2021 and extend for the entirety of 2022. All those 50th Anniversary projects will not be done for most of '21.

 

[siren0119]

My 2 cents: No one knows not even Disney. In terms of the 50th, a current rumor is that the 50th will start on the actually 50th anniversary: October of 2021 and extend for the entirety of 2022. All those 50th Anniversary projects will not be done for most of '21.

That's less rumor and more standard procedure. They start the celebration on the anniversary month and then extend it however long they see fit. The 25th anniversary celebration started in October 1996 (the actual 25th anniversary) and extended into 1998.

 

[fabfemmeboy]

Reading the DIS Boards I get a 55/45 vibe. A small majority (55%) aren't going anywhere until this pandemic is considered over. But that slight minority (45%) is ready to get out and enjoy the Magic. And, of course, the folks here are huge Disney fans.

Let's say that Disney keeps the 50% capacity for 6 months - July 1 to December 31. It will be like a lottery - people going nuts to get the few admissions, people stressing over getting in to the parks.

Keep in mind that 50% capacity doesn't mean 50% of the usual crowd. Even at the worst of Christmas week, they don't generally hit capacity because they rarely have to close to entry and turn people away at the gate's. So even at 50% capacity, at the very least resort guests would almost certainly be guaranteed admission, etc. But if the number is lower, then I agree that's definitely a possibility. It's one of the things I worry about if things are open for our planned September trip: what is the likelihood that we're down there, we're on-property, but we can't actually get into a park?

I agree with you about the roughly 55/45 ratio, though I would point out that we are by definition NOT a representative sample. Most people on the Boards go at least once every couple years, which the average family does not. A high percentage are AP holders, which the majority of Disney-goers are not. A high percentage are DVC members, which is atypical, etc. So I look at it this way: if more than half of us die-hards aren't going to Disney for awhile, I think that percentage is going to be a LOT higher in the general population. So even assuming Disney has to put a cap on capacity for roughly 6 months, and even assuming it's half of the usual crowd instead of half of capacity, I still think most people who really want to go to Disney would be able to get in just because most people would be holding off until everything is completely and totally over.

 

[leeniewdw]

Keep in mind that 50% capacity doesn't mean 50% of the usual crowd.

And isn't another part of the equation, how will Disney adjust ride/services capacity to match the crowds. I mean, if the crowds are "smaller", then that makes for a nice experience with literal crowds and moving around (especially post Covid), but will it makes lines shorter? Perhaps not.

Heck, we were there in March (crowded) and couldn't get a Dole Whip in AK because the concession shut down about an hour before park closing. I mean, we survived obviously, but they can always adapt offerings to smaller crowds.

 

[fabfemmeboy]

And isn't another part of the equation, how will Disney adjust ride/services capacity to match the crowds. I mean, if the crowds are "smaller", then that makes for a nice experience with literal crowds and moving around (especially post Covid), but will it makes lines shorter? Perhaps not.

Heck, we were there in March (crowded) and couldn't get a Dole Whip in AK because the concession shut down about an hour before park closing. I mean, we survived obviously, but they can always adapt offerings to smaller crowds.

Absolutely. For that matter, we almost always go in January and couldn't get anything to eat for about the last 3 hours before MK closed because all but one QS place closed. The only one left open was swamped.

Plus fewer people wouldn't mean shorter waits if - as suggested - they are only loading ride vehicles a quarter or half as full and having to stop to sanitize vehicles every few runs. For example, BTMRR has a ride capacity of 2,400 people per hour if both sides are running. Let's assume they keep both sides running but only load people into every other row, so you're down to 1,200 people per hour. They need to sanitize the ride vehicles more often, and you can't double-load the queue at the loading area (e.g. only one group can stand on 'row 12', instead of the people who will ride next AND the people who will ride after them), but that gets tricky with roller coasters because the timing is very particular. So assume that they are only running 4 of 6 possible trains at a time. That takes capacity down to 800 per hour, or 1/3 its usual capacity.

So if the parks are operating at 1/3 capacity, that means your wait time would be the same for BTMRR as it would be during your regular, non-COVID visit, right?
WRONG

Because 1/3 capacity is not the same as 1/3 of the usual park busy-ness level. So if you usually visit sometime other than Christmas week or Easter week or 4th of July, you're not seeing the park anywhere near capacity. The average number of daily Magic Kingdom visitors is about 56,000, or barely 1/2 of the stated capacity. Meaning if ordinarily your wait on a particular day/time for BTMRR would be an hour (2,400 people in line in front of you), and park capacity is at 25% (so 1,200 people are in line in front of you at BTMRR), then your wait would actually be 90 minutes - or 50% longer than it would usually be even though there are fewer guests in the park.

(This scenario makes a lot of assumptions that aren't quite precise and assumes that the distribution of guests through the park and choice of rides would be consistent before and after the virus, that the parks do actually reach their capacity limit for the day during all of this, and that there aren't additional time factors involved like a longer loading time due to use of remote queues or shutting down the entire coaster once an hour to deep-clean every car, etc. But just as an illustration.)

 

[Karin1984]

-What does international travel look like? (Less likely to impact early May than other months, either for spring break or summer vacation, but still. If I would normally go to Europe but I can't because of travel bans, I may go to Disney instead. And if international travelers can't come here, that would decrease crowds).

It's not just the travel bans. It's also a fear to get hospitalized in a foreign country. I think one thing we can safely say is that international travel will be down for a long time. But there will be groups of people to make up for this.

You cannot make any predictions for the coming year, we have never been in a situation like this. There are too many variables which influence crowds under normal circumstances, let alone now.
In the end there are 3 options:
- The crowds will be lighter.
There are still running at lower capacity with a reservation system, people do not have the money, people do not have the health to go back to crowded places .

- The crowds will be the same.
Those who cannot travel are equal to those who can but couldn't go during Covid.

- The crowds will be heavier.
Because the parks have been closed for such a long time / ran with lower capacity, people have postponed to 2021, because they couldn't take holidays in 2020. Or people are in need of breaks and take more holidays.

There are arguments for all these 3 options. Probably you won't be able to tell what May 2021 will be like till March/April 2021.

 

[fabfemmeboy]

It's not just the travel bans. It's also a fear to get hospitalized in a foreign country. I think one thing we can safely say is that international travel will be down for a long time. But there will be groups of people to make up for this.

Exactly. People from abroad may be less likely to come for the reasons you said, especially as America remains a higher-risk country than most of the rest of the world, but on the other hand if people from the US are less likely to go to other countries they may take a vacation stateside instead.

There are arguments for all these 3 options. Probably you won't be able to tell what May 2021 will be like till March/April 2021.

Pretty much. Any of those scenarios are possible, or even all three of them at different times before all of this is said and done. It may be the same-sized crowds at first, then much lower, then higher again, or some other order.

 

[Jabroniville]

One thing I can tell you is the restaurants are STILL being reserved the full 180 days in advance. I re-booked for September a couple months ago and managed to get everything I wanted (I forget if I had to be weird about time, but most things were 3-5 pm), but I "maybe-booked" three places for November just in case things aren't open yet and HOLY COW- 179 days in advance was too little for Cinderella's Royal Table for Friday! I grabbed one for the next day, but that the "you actually have to pay for this one" restaurant will book up in 1 day is pretty telling.


When they opened up restaurants here last week, they were PACKED to capacity (well, half, since they're forced to leave more space open)- people were so eager to get out somewhere that they filled every place in my area. I got turned away 1.5 hours before closing because there were 30 people ahead of me already once.

I really think Disney's going to be the same way. Imagine all the people with APs who are gonna make a mad dash immediately, regardless of the risk. The first month it's open is likely going to be nuts.

 

[beachdreamr1229]

I spend most of my time on the DL boards, but I'm just reading because I'm bored and looking for an escape from the monotony of being home, so forgive me if this is a ridiculous question. Does WDW always start their anniversary activities on their actual anniversary? I'm not as well versed in WDW, but DL tends to start their big anniversaries around Memorial Day (difference being the birthday is mid-July so a whole summer of celebration makes sense I guess).

May 2021 will definitely be less crowded than later in the year. That's about the only thing I can safely predict based on the patterns at all the parks.

Anyway, I'm planning December 2021 for WDW...I'm fully expecting it to be insanely crowded between the holidays and the anniversary. But, that being said, I'm not so sure COVID will be totally gone by then. I would love to live in a dream world where we get a vaccine, even if it's seasonal, or a treatment that prevents hospitalization/death, but otherwise, I think a lot of the at-risk population might skip a trip for a few years. Plus, the economy is not great. I know for my family, a week's vacation plus air fare is more than some people make in a year when the economy is good. So...we'll see. I love everyone's speculations. It's part of the fun of forum life.

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

I talked to someone who went to DS yesterday in the late afternoon and he said it was dead! The only garage that was open was the lime garage and only 2 rows in the garage had cars in them. He said it was so strange walking around and only seeing a handful of people. He plans to go back this weekend since it will be the holiday just to see how crowded it is.

 

[fabfemmeboy]

One thing I can tell you is the restaurants are STILL being reserved the full 180 days in advance. I re-booked for September a couple months ago and managed to get everything I wanted (I forget if I had to be weird about time, but most things were 3-5 pm), but I "maybe-booked" three places for November just in case things aren't open yet and HOLY COW- 179 days in advance was too little for Cinderella's Royal Table for Friday! I grabbed one for the next day, but that the "you actually have to pay for this one" restaurant will book up in 1 day is pretty telling.

It wouldn't surprise me if they had released fewer ADR slots than usual, assuming they would still be under capacity caps and social distancing requirements. Think about how many fewer tables you can have in CRT if you have to maintain 6 feet between each party? To say nothing of the possibility that face-character meet-and-greets may well be changed or limited for awhile after they reopen. So I wouldn't assume that it means the restaurants will be "full" (in the usual sense of the word), but that they may reach their projected capacity.

 

[Jabroniville]

It wouldn't surprise me if they had released fewer ADR slots than usual, assuming they would still be under capacity caps and social distancing requirements. Think about how many fewer tables you can have in CRT if you have to maintain 6 feet between each party? To say nothing of the possibility that face-character meet-and-greets may well be changed or limited for awhile after they reopen. So I wouldn't assume that it means the restaurants will be "full" (in the usual sense of the word), but that they may reach their projected capacity.

ohhhhhhhh that makes some sense. Because yeah, they filled up REALLY quickly.

Also, I tried to book Be Our Guest reservations, but must have slept through my alarm- instead, I woke up at 7:41 instead of 5:41 like I was supposed to. And that less-than-two-hour gap was all it took for BOG to be ENTIRELY booked for dinner! I was furious, but thankfully someone must have dropped their reservations on another day, because I was able to get an earlier time by checking each night for a couple of days straight. Very lucky.