Crowd Level Calculations

[Reimagineer]

Is anyone familiar with how the various websites actually calculate actual crowd levels in parks? I've read that some sample ride wait times while others use regular attendance figures. We visited last week and were hit with some crowds that were really under-predicted. Given that the predictions are based on past data, I was curious how they got their data in the first place.

More importantly, which website is most reliable with predicting crowd levels?

Thanks!

 

[401Disney]

I have no idea how its calculated that's honestly to much math for me lol.

But the most accurate in my opinion is josh over at easywdw.com not only does he give you the crowd level and recommended park for that day but he gives you detailed reasons as to why he is recommending that specific park on that specific day. Not to mention his reviews of everything are always spot on and peppered with his own brand of humor.

 

[ArwenMarie]

I don't think there is any consensus on which crowd calendar is the most accurate. October seems to be tricky, because in past years it was known as a lower-crowd month (as compared to spring break, Christmas week and summer which are a bit easier to forecast). I like to look at a few of them and compare but in the end we are tied to the school schedule now so it doesn't matter as much, other than picking park days, where I use a combo of Touring Plans and Easywdw.

 

[JZCubed]

Is anyone familiar with how the various websites actually calculate actual crowd levels in parks? I've read that some sample ride wait times while others use regular attendance figures. We visited last week and were hit with some crowds that were really under-predicted. Given that the predictions are based on past data, I was curious how they got their data in the first place.

More importantly, which website is most reliable with predicting crowd levels?

Thanks!

Josh at EasyWDW has repeatedly attempted to show that 'Recommend Park' versus 'Avoid Park' is likely more important that just looking at Crowd Levels alone.

Also, if you can, know when the crowds in any Park will be the largest and attempt to avoid those times if you can.

But if you really want to watch Wishes fireworks, for instance, and you have to be on Main Street - it's going to be crowded whether the predictions are for a 4- or 10- Crowd level.

 

[Reimagineer]

Thanks, it definitely feels like it's more than just a "data decision" and that it's very helpful to get the anecdotal analysis that the EasyWDW site provides.

Does anybody live tweet from the parks so you can get a real-time picture of the crowd based on more than just posted ride waits? One of the downsides of being in WDW on a busy day is that their wifi and the available cellular capacity is swamped...we had trouble on multiple occasions running the wdw app and had to get the ride wait times the old fashioned way. Trouble is, that doesn't tell you much if you are considering a park-hop and want to make an informed decision where best to go!

 

[ArwenMarie]

Thanks, it definitely feels like it's more than just a "data decision" and that it's very helpful to get the anecdotal analysis that the EasyWDW site provides.

Does anybody live tweet from the parks so you can get a real-time picture of the crowd based on more than just posted ride waits? One of the downsides of being in WDW on a busy day is that their wifi and the available cellular capacity is swamped...we had trouble on multiple occasions running the wdw app and had to get the ride wait times the old fashioned way. Trouble is, that doesn't tell you much if you are considering a park-hop and want to make an informed decision where best to go!

There are other ways to check it on your phone's browser
I think easywdw.com/waits is one.

 

[Epcot_Fan_76]

I think that crowd calendars are becoming obsolete. WDW is crowded 365 days a year. Epcot's parking lot almost closed for capacity this past Sunday and Tuesday. That usually only happens on NYE. So far this fall (Sept. and Oct.) has been much more crowded than normal. As a local I usually try to avoid MK during the peak days, but it seems that Epcot has even been more crowded than usual. I think it is a combination of F&W, but also most of the MNSSHP's have been sold out, and when that happens a lot of people go to Epcot.

 

[Reimagineer]

I think that crowd calendars are becoming obsolete. WDW is crowded 365 days a year. Epcot's parking lot almost closed for capacity this past Sunday and Tuesday. That usually only happens on NYE. So far this fall (Sept. and Oct.) has been much more crowded than normal. As a local I usually try to avoid MK during the peak days, but it seems that Epcot has even been more crowded than usual. I think it is a combination of F&W, but also most of the MNSSHP's have been sold out, and when that happens a lot of people go to Epcot.

Seems like people are correct when they say there are no slow days anymore at WDW! If it's not F&W, it's MNSSHP. If not that, it's MVMCP. If not that it's Spring Break. If not that it's winter break in the southern hemisphere, or another country's holiday! If we can't reliably plan to avoid crowds, then at least we should just try and dodge 'em once they materialize. I like the idea of using the waits page on easywdw...

 

[CodeGoddess]

I think that crowd calendars are becoming obsolete.

As more special events happen this could be true but I think there will always be a place for them. We are going during the off season in February so I am still using the crowd calendars to plan which days we go where for both WDW and US.

 

[ArwenMarie]

Maybe a better way to classify the days would be Crowded, Really Crowded, Really-Really Crowded, Holy-Cow-Crowded

 

[havoc315]

Is anyone familiar with how the various websites actually calculate actual crowd levels in parks? I've read that some sample ride wait times while others use regular attendance figures. We visited last week and were hit with some crowds that were really under-predicted. Given that the predictions are based on past data, I was curious how they got their data in the first place.

More importantly, which website is most reliable with predicting crowd levels?

Thanks!

Read this recent blog from one of the major crowd calendars..... Especially read the comments section where their data guy gives some feedback:

http://blog.touringplans.com/2015/10/21/disney-world-crowd-calendar-report-october-11-to-17-2015/

Basically..... They know the crowds have been under-predicted the last couple of months. In fact, they are seeing Christmas-type "crowds" at a time that is usually considered slow.
They are trying to figure out what the heck is going wrong. They don't think it has anything to do with actual attendance.

 

[Epcot_Fan_76]

I think that it is just crowded, pure and simple. I live two miles from MK, and Sept. and Oct. have been almost as bad as the week after Christmas. Like I said in an earlier post, Epcot parking almost reached capacity on Sunday and Tuesday. There was a sold out MNSSHP each of those days. What scares me is that during the week of Christmas the MK parking lot will fill to capacity before the park, and then they direct guests to park at Epcot and take the monorail until MK reaches Phase 1 closure. However, on Sunday and Tuesday there were no guests from MK parked at Epcot, and yet the lot almost reached capacity. I go to Epcot every year during NYE and even then Epcot's lot is not completely full. It is amazing how fast they have removed and leveled off the Richard Petty track. I won't be surprised at all if that area is available for parking by the Christmas Holidays.

 

[MataHari22]

Maybe a better way to classify the days would be Crowded, Really Crowded, Really-Really Crowded, Holy-Cow-Crowded

I just said this almost exact thing to my friend, yesterday. My language may have been slightly less G rated, though.

 

[Reimagineer]

I think that it is just crowded, pure and simple. I live two miles from MK, and Sept. and Oct. have been almost as bad as the week after Christmas. Like I said in an earlier post, Epcot parking almost reached capacity on Sunday and Tuesday. There was a sold out MNSSHP each of those days. What scares me is that during the week of Christmas the MK parking lot will fill to capacity before the park, and then they direct guests to park at Epcot and take the monorail until MK reaches Phase 1 closure. However, on Sunday and Tuesday there were no guests from MK parked at Epcot, and yet the lot almost reached capacity. I go to Epcot every year during NYE and even then Epcot's lot is not completely full. It is amazing how fast they have removed and leveled off the Richard Petty track. I won't be surprised at all if that area is available for parking by the Christmas Holidays.

Do we know if they are also plans to expand parking at Epcot or is adding parking to MK all that is really needed?

It's kind of worrisome when you think about it...the parks are all so full, yet the response is to make more parking so more people can join in...

 

[ckcnj]

We just went on our first trip Oct 17-21. I cannot compare the crowds to another time of year bec it was my first trip but it was heavier than I expected. The crowd calendars indicated it would be a light crowd level time of year. But in the parks, it was like walking on the streets of NYC on a Saturday afternoon crowded. But maybe the resort was not at capacity bec the buses were standing room only just a few times during our stay--usually you could get a seat.

 

[mesaboy2]

Do we know if they are also plans to expand parking at Epcot or is adding parking to MK all that is really needed?

It's kind of worrisome when you think about it...the parks are all so full, yet the response is to make more parking so more people can join in...

Don't forget they've been expanding DVC like mad men for several years now.

 

[Kristine316]

I don't know if any of them are all that reliable anymore.
Some posters swear by Easywdw but, if you look at today, Josh's least recommended park is Epcot but, if you check ride wait times, Epcot has pretty decent wait times today. Epcot's ride lines seem to be the shortest of the four parks today.
I know why he didn't recommend Epcot.. Because of F&W, so in that respect I understand.
He does have HS as not recommended and HS's wait times are brutal right now. So he got that one right.

I think these sites can be a useful tool but, I also think they are wrong just as much as they are right. Don't bank of their advice.. Just keep it in mind.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

Here's Epcot wait times from yesterday:

"Not bad," right?

Here's World Showcase yesterday at 1:30pm.

Here's the advice for the day:

Epcot will be considerably busier than usual due to the incredibly popular International Food and Wine Festival. The event attracts tons of locals, especially in the afternoon and evening in the World Showcase where the majority of the Food and Wine events take place. Although the effect on Future World and the headlining attractions isn’t as great, we’re still much better off waiting until Monday to visit. Expect incredibly heavy crowds from 1pm through IllumiNations. If you can’t visit Epcot any other day, make sure you arrive prior to Park opening and visit Test Track, Sum of All Thrills, Mission Space, and Soarin’ immediately in the morning or follow a touring plan. Use FastPass+ in the late morning and afternoon when crowds and waits peak. Move up through the Mexico and Norway Pavilions in the World Showcase at 11am if you can’t get to the World Showcase on another day. The World Showcase will be buzzing from 1pm through close and it will be very difficult to move around with the heavier crowds, even if the attractions won’t necessarily be that much busier than usual. Try to move through World Showcase as quickly as possible and then return to Future World. If you’re trying to decide between visiting Epcot on Friday, Saturday, or Sunday, I would recommend Friday and then Sunday over Saturday.

It sounds to me like what was supposed to happen, happened.

As far as today, it would be less crowded in World Showcase than Saturday, but you're going to see similarly modest wait times and similarly heavy crowds in World Showcase.

 

[LuvMyEAR]

Leaving for WDW on Nov 8 and every indication, despite the crowd calendars is that the place will be super-busy. As off-site guests, FP+ and ADRs have been insane. I snagged a BOG breakfast the day they announced it would be a permanent offering, but otherwise, there is not a single MK table service meal available on any day of our 10-day stay. Might have got CRT, but not interested.

This has been our favourite time of year to visit, nicer weather, fewer crowds, etc, etc, but looks like those days are well and truly gone. FP+ helps crowd balancing somewhat, but I can honestly say that I am not a fan of seeing things booked solid months before we travel. The older system seemed to give everyone a bit fairer chance.

Whatever, there are few places I would rather be. Hopefully I will be singing the same song after this trip!

 

[maryj11]

Maybe a better way to classify the days would be Crowded, Really Crowded, Really-Really Crowded, Holy-Cow-Crowded