Crowd Calendars

[yaya74]

I used TP for the second time during my recent trip. I would say the prediction was pretty close to the real situation. I didn't use the crowd calendar to plan my trip. But I did use the "touring plan" function to plan for my daily itinerary which would predict how much time each attraction would take with or without FP. The prediction would based on the crowd level I believe. The plan's time stamp was very close to what I actually did on that day.

 

[lentesta]

How accurate are the crowd calendars from Touring Plans?

Some stats on TP's predictions. The numbers below are the average difference between what was predicted and what was actually measured. (So if we predicted a 5 and the actual was a 6, the +/- difference is 1.0.)

Over the last week: Magic Kingdom predictions are averaging +/- 0.29. Epcot was +/- 1.0. DHS was +/- 1.0. Animal Kingdom was +/- 1.71.

Over the last month: MK +/- 0.87. EP +/- 1.43. DHS +/- 1.23. AK +/- 1.13.

2018 YTD: MK +/- 1.36. EP +/- 1.27. DHS +/- 1.29. AK +/- 1.64.

All of 2017: MK +/- 1.19. EP +/- 1.12. DHS +/- 1.09. AK +/- 1.35.

Fro context, two of the biggest challenges to predictions are weather, and that Disney's own posted wait times aren't that accurate. For those reasons, I think the lower limit on the numbers above is probably around 0.5 to 0.8.

We track this daily. I'm happy to clean up the spreadsheet and post a link to it.

 

[FastPasser.]

and what was actually measured.

Are you able to describe how this is done?

 

[HollyJoy]

Some stats on TP's predictions. The numbers below are the average difference between what was predicted and what was actually measured. (So if we predicted a 5 and the actual was a 6, the +/- difference is 1.0.)

Over the last week: Magic Kingdom predictions are averaging +/- 0.29. Epcot was +/- 1.0. DHS was +/- 1.0. Animal Kingdom was +/- 1.71.

Over the last month: MK +/- 0.87. EP +/- 1.43. DHS +/- 1.23. AK +/- 1.13.

2018 YTD: MK +/- 1.36. EP +/- 1.27. DHS +/- 1.29. AK +/- 1.64.

All of 2017: MK +/- 1.19. EP +/- 1.12. DHS +/- 1.09. AK +/- 1.35.

Fro context, two of the biggest challenges to predictions are weather, and that Disney's own posted wait times aren't that accurate. For those reasons, I think the lower limit on the numbers above is probably around 0.5 to 0.8.

We track this daily. I'm happy to clean up the spreadsheet and post a link to it.

Thanks!

 

[HollyJoy]

I look at and compare crowd calendars from several different sources. I also look at park hours, using one year ago if the current year isn't available. Then I come up with my own daily plan. Once I have my plan I stick with it and don't try to over analyze it.

Yeah, I think I am overthinking everything, planning for this trip. Not sure why! lol I mean, it is what it is, right? I think I'm going to use TP as a guide and just make these decisions and stick with them.

 

[lentesta]

Are you able to describe how this is done?

Yes - we collect posted and actual wait times every day, from our users and staff in the parks, and Disney's API. Somewhere between 4,000 and 8,000 per day, IIRC. We also post these results publicly every day for the day before.

 

[FastPasser.]

Yes - we collect posted and actual wait times every day, from our users and staff in the parks, and Disney's API.

I was actually referring to how you measure park attendance accurately.

 

[lentesta]

I was actually referring to how you measure park attendance accurately.

Sorry, I misunderstood. We don't predict or track attendance. We measure crowds using attraction wait times. We think it's easier to understand differences like, say, 60 vs 90 minutes in line at Space Mountain, than 28,000 vs 35,000 people in the park.

 

[Superchikk]

This is the million dollar question. Josh at Easywdw doesn't do them anymore because Disney stopped providing the information he based them on. They also have reduced staffing at lower crowds times, which can make lines just as long as when there are twice as many people in the parks - according to what Josh has said on his website. It's a new ball game and I don't think any crowd calendar can give you predictions as accurate as they could two years ago.

Having said that, I do think the model Touring Plans uses is the most data-driven. You can use it as a loose guide, but I wouldn't live or die by them when planning a vacation.

Josh is one of my FAVORITE "Disney people." He's quite pragmatic and doesn't mince words. I hated when he stopped doing the calendars because I felt his were the best, but I completely understand why he did. His maps and cheat sheets are still my favorite.

 

[SarahC97]

Josh is one of my FAVORITE "Disney people." He's quite pragmatic and doesn't mince words. I hated when he stopped doing the calendars because I felt his were the best, but I completely understand why he did. His maps and cheat sheets are still my favorite.

Agreed. His blog is one of the only ones I read all the time.

 

[Tksolomom]

This. I'll also add that party days tend to be less crowded.

Easywdw just did comparisons for all parks over the year. Sat are not the worst day anymore for MK, it doesn’t seem like EMH makes much difference either. The reason that he quit doing crowd calendars is that WDW doesn’t publish their hours early enough anymore and the old rules don’t hold true.

I go on the day that works best with plans. If I am not going to the morning EMH, then I avoid that park. I like to rope drop in general though.

I do have a touring plans subscription though and use it for a rough estimate between parks. I also use their touring plans.

I love both sites.

 

[cdurham1]

Agree with everything said so far. I print off several suggested calendars and compare and try to use some logic with EMH, hard ticket event crowd flow, etc.

Ultimately, as Touring Plans points out, fastpass selection, being very early to rope drop, and actually having a touring plan is going to trump park selection.

 

[maryj11]

This is the million dollar question. Josh at Easywdw doesn't do them anymore because Disney stopped providing the information he based them on. They also have reduced staffing at lower crowds times, which can make lines just as long as when there are twice as many people in the parks - according to what Josh has said on his website. It's a new ball game and I don't think any crowd calendar can give you predictions as accurate as they could two years ago.

Having said that, I do think the model Touring Plans uses is the most data-driven. You can use it as a loose guide, but I wouldn't live or die by them when planning a vacation.

I agree. Touring Plans probably the best we have for now but don't depend on it being completely accurate.

 

[maryj11]

Josh is one of my FAVORITE "Disney people." He's quite pragmatic and doesn't mince words. I hated when he stopped doing the calendars because I felt his were the best, but I completely understand why he did. His maps and cheat sheets are still my favorite.

I love his cheat sheets! I always check them to make our plans.

 

[Epcotgal8]

This is the million dollar question. Josh at Easywdw doesn't do them anymore because Disney stopped providing the information he based them on. They also have reduced staffing at lower crowds times, which can make lines just as long as when there are twice as many people in the parks - according to what Josh has said on his website. It's a new ball game and I don't think any crowd calendar can give you predictions as accurate as they could two years ago.

Having said that, I do think the model Touring Plans uses is the most data-driven. You can use it as a loose guide, but I wouldn't live or die by them when planning a vacation.

I never found Easy WDW to be accurate on crowd calendars or much of anything else. TP isn't always spot on but way better than Josh's site IMO.

 

[bladiator]

I never found Easy WDW to be accurate on crowd calendars or much of anything else. TP isn't always spot on but way better than Josh's site IMO.

Maybe I'm just jaded but I think a lot of Josh nostalgia plays in with how much people thought his calendars worked. I mean, TP is ingesting a ridiculous amount of data to create their calendars and the majority of easywdw calenders were a huge paragraph about emh (where is it today, where was it yesterday, where will it be 2035)

Disclaimer: I am a TP subscriber.

 

[SaintsManiac]

Maybe I'm just jaded but I think a lot of Josh nostalgia plays in with how much people thought his calendars worked. I mean, TP is ingesting a ridiculous amount of data to create their calendars and the majority of easywdw calenders were a huge paragraph about emh (where is it today, where was it yesterday, where will it be 2035)

Disclaimer: I am a TP subscriber.

Josh regularly goes to the parks and reports back his own data in extensive articles. I’m also a TP subscriber, but I think crowd calendars are a bunch of hooey. Levels are totally subjective. You simply can’t throw a number or color on a day and call it accurate.

I’d rather read Josh’s site for his experience and candor.

 

[bladiator]

Josh regularly goes to the parks and reports back his own data in extensive articles. I’m also a TP subscriber, but I think crowd calendars are a bunch of hooey. Levels are totally subjective. You simply can’t throw a number or color on a day and call it accurate.

I’d rather read Josh’s site for his experience and candor.

Not to belabor this ( but I'm going to) have you ever read an article citing some of data analytics that go into the TP crowd calendar? I don't think a lot of people realize the number of variables that are accounted for.

Josh has also seemed to be a hater of Disney world and just a crotchety old man in the posts over read in the past so I guess I'm also guilty of allowing that to shade my view of his insights. What some call "telling it straight" I call "complaining ... A lot"

 

[SarahC97]

Not to belabor this ( but I'm going to) have you ever read an article citing some of data analytics that go into the TP crowd calendar? I don't think a lot of people realize the number of variables that are accounted for.

Josh has also seemed to be a hater of Disney world and just a crotchety old man in the posts over read in the past so I guess I'm also guilty of allowing that to shade my view of his insights. What some call "telling it straight" I call "complaining ... A lot"

I really appreciate the data that goes into TP. I too am a subscriber and will continue to be. Their touring plans, lines app, and room request feauture are awesome and totally worth the money. But the crowd calendar portion has been disappointing to me, particularly on my January/February trip this year. It wasn't dependable and was way off. Len has since tried to explain why and I know it was not their "fault" but I think it reinforces the point many have tried to make in this thread that because of changes on Disney's end, crowd calendars aren't as trustworthy or dependable as they used to be - even when such great methods are used to create them, like TP

 

[TheOneWithTheTriplets]

I’d rather read Josh’s site for his experience and candor.

Definitely! Only blog that I will laugh out loud reading while also finding incredibly useful information.