Crowd Calendars & Reservations - Is it even relevant anymore?

[aadler]

I'm planning our May trip and looking at what happened in March and April, it seems that both parks are always fully booked up with reservations.

Is there any difference any more between week ends and week days? I'm so programmed to book quieter week days, but if it's all reservation-based and it keeps selling out, it should be the same right?? Are crowd calendars even really relevant any more under this new system?

(Background - We have an 8 day trip with a 5 day hopper. I took our "off days" mid-week and we'll go to Universal for one of them. Worried that I should actually be avoiding DL on the weekends)

 

[mdmost]

March and April are typically busier months than May given it's Spring Break for most of the US. So far May 2-4 and every Friday except the last are sold out for Single Day tickets. Park Hoppers are fine except for May 3-4 because of Star Wars Nite (you can only select DCA both days) and the 31st which is sold out. Is that also influenced by Key Holder reservations? Maybe. Does anyone really knows definitively?

I don't know if it was ever really established if there's less park availability during the week versus weekends. I could see Disney setting aside more availability on the weekends due to the expectation that more people will be there so they need to staff up and to staff less on traditionally slower weekdays.

I still think a good indicator of crowd level is the single day ticket price. The weekend price is usually a lot higher to marginally higher than weekdays. Mid week in May is anywhere from $104 which is the lowest tier to $159 towards the end of the month (Memorial Day weekend and Star Wars Celebration).

 

[Federalist45]

Here is what MiceChat had to say recently: “Particularly nice at Disneyland Fridays through Sunday as most Magic Keyholders are blocked. But that can make weekdays feel more crowded than weekends!”

The information that’s out there is anecdotal. My brain still says that, if reservation and staffing levels are equal (or at least proportional), I’d rather be in a park with more pass holders. They shouldn’t be competing with me for attractions and dining in the same way that Hopper/single ticket guests are.

This isn’t the conventional wisdom (or even the current wisdom), however, so either I’m not thinking of a variable, or the opinions offered are just rehashed, pre-pandemic balderdash. I have to admit that my thoughts are just theory, aka speculation.

 

[starlite_]

I wouldn't trust crowd calendars as much as before simply because we have almost 2 years of cancelled vacations still trickling in. Maybe next year it will even out a bit but for now I will expect the parks to be busier than normal in the "off seasons".

 

[theluckyrabbit]

I wouldn't trust crowd calendars as much as before ...

And crowd calendars were never really reliable at DLR in the "before times," either.
Most accurate crowd calendars?

 

[TikiTikiFan]

Grad Nites are going on in May too which accounts for some of the filled up park reservation days. Glad I made our reservations early- was going to switch things around and saw a few days are already booked!

 

[Obi-J Kenobi]

I am not relying on crowd calendars because I really don't understand the math behind all of the predictions. Not saying its inaccurate. I just don't understand it enough to say it is reliable or unreliable.

I have surprised my DW with a trip to DL in August. We are arriving when several local school districts are returning to school. I'm crossing my fingers that all the "DL is a locals park far more than WDW" means that when Orange County and LA kids return to school that the crowds may lessen a bit (although, I realize that there are many families that live in NorCal, Utah, Vegas and San Diego that also drive to DL for vacationing). Plus, Magic Key blackout status still is in effect for lower level keys, so I would think that would have some positive effect on crowding too.

 

[Steven G]

First off:
Reservations selling out does not mean the parks are at capacity. Far from it. It's Disney's method of crowd control and trying to maximize their money. They typically don't staff as much during the weekdays, so they may limit the # of reservations possible on those days.

What this generally means is that because of the crowd control and their manipulation, most days will seem busy. Are some days less busy in terms of # of people? Sure, but that also means that they won't staff as many CM that day and won't run the attractions at full capacity, so it will equalize out.

If you are lucky, then the day you happen to go on will be less busy, but it's getting harder and harder to see that (unless it rains or there is bad weather).

The best advice if you don't like crowds is to rope drop, stay until 12 or 1pm, go back to your hotel and rest for a few hours, and come back around dinner time and stay as long as you can. We did that 2 of the 3 days we were there a couple weeks ago, and it worked out well.