Crowd Calendars Are More Worthless Than Toilet Paper and Fake Dollar Bills

[disneydreamer1980]

We just always plan like it’s going to be a level 10 day, that way you can’t be disappointed. We pick which park to do on which day based on generally which parks are most crowded on that day of the week. And as a general rule, on days MK closes early it’s not very crowded.with good planning, the crowds don’t matter as much.

 

[friedela]

IMO, yes. But if you hate crowds that much and completely planned your entire trip to try to avoid them, I'm worried how you're going to enjoy the trip. It's WDW...it's busy.

well, me too! LOL. But now that I know I will adjust that expectation. I will still enjoy the trip, I just had a picture of it being low crowds. Some things us newbies just need to learn as we go!

 

[CampbellzSoup]

Crowd reports in totality are pretty crap as well. It’s all subjective and relative to your specific position/itinerary of what you want to do.

 

[Davey Jones II]

@siskaren and @AngiTN each have hit the nail on the head...

Josh has indicated numerous times here on his reasons for stopping and the logic is sound and should make us all question why anybody is attempting a crowd calendar at all. Here's the reasoning he has cited:

• Old patterns don't hold true anymore (i.e. avoid EMH or no Magic Kingdom on Monday)
• School Calendars seem to have less of a bearing on things, people are pulling out of school more, or there's the year round schools and other stuff contributing to more people with kids traveling year round.
• Disney cuts staffing (which in turn can reduce ride throughput) to match crowd levels meaning wait times can be roughly similar on a busy day or a less busy day simply because of the staffing difference (examples of this would be running only one side of dumbo or speedway until later in the morning OR having less trucks on the safari or boats on jungle cruise
• Based on these factors - how many people are in the park don't directly tie to wait times...which is primarily what people care about.
• Additionally Disney used to provide guidance very far out on expected crowd levels and no longer does that. They also tweak hours far later than they used to

I say all this to say that anybody doing a crowd calendar is certainly doing their best with whatever limited information they have. BUT the fact that Josh (who was the best at it) stopped doing it tells me all I need to know about their chances at being accurate...

There may be some truth to all these points, BUT...it's still more crowded during school holidays. Wait times are usually still lower during less crowded days. Everything else being equal, Monday is still not an ideal day to visit MK. Etc.

I disagree with the defeatist attitude that says "it's always busy, just go when you feel like it, no point trying to beat the crowds." And, if the crowd patterns are changing, let's learn how they have changed and what we can do about it. I'm certainly not going to show up on Christmas week and say "ahh, what's the difference? It's crowded anytime anyway."

 

[Davey Jones II]

No, Touring Plans doesn’t go off of crowd feel to get their numbers. They base their crowd levels on wait times at selected rides during set times of the day.

Right, they provide real time data from people in the parks on that very day. That's hardly "worthless."

 

[slpeters]

Crowd reports in totality are pretty crap as well. It’s all subjective and relative to your specific position/itinerary of what you want to do.

I definitely agree with this. We were there for a week last November and had a great trip. I only just this last week, largely because of all the really negative talk on here about crowds, looked up the crowd levels for the days we were there. Apparently we had nines and tens for at least half of our trip. Frankly I'm glad they were wrong going in. If I had known that going in I would have worried unnecessarily. I'm still a little confused about the numbers to be honest--dh's response pretty much sums it up: "you mean they don't get busier than that?" To be honest, other than during the fireworks we never felt overly crowded, we never waited longer than a half hour for an attraction. We only waited more than fifteen minutes four or five times in a week (and two of those were the FP line for FOP--which apparently people are willing to wait hours for), we never got shut out of a show. We had a truly magical week and only missed one attraction--Splash Mountain was down when we intended to ride it and the two other times we were able to ride it with reasonable waits it was evening and just cold enough we didn't want to risk getting wet. If that's nines and tens I guess we just don't have to worry about crowds at all.

 

[zebrastreyepz]

Disagree but it's usefulness is a subjective thing, IMO.

 

[Hoopfamily]

I find them still useful for planning. For the record I also find toilet paper extremely valuable.

 

[Ds4angels]

Another thing that makes crowd calenders hard to do right now are the new attractions coming up. Last summer had some low numbers, the summer before that was low due to Olympics being held in Brazil and that group of people not coming like they normally do. But this summer with TSL opening in HS there is really no way to gage the numbers. Will it be busy or will people hold out till SW is complete and do it all in one trip?

 

[CampbellzSoup]

Disagree but it's usefulness is a subjective thing, IMO.

I mean how do you disagree what if the family providing the report or the online venue is more in certain area than other areas? It’s a totally subjective thing too on what someone considers “crowded” and what others do as well.

 

[Dug720]

I mean how do you disagree what if the family providing the report or the online venue is more in certain area than other areas? It’s a totally subjective thing too on what someone considers “crowded” and what others do as well.

Agree that it is subjective! I live in NYC and my family in TN. What they call “crowded” I call “room to roam”. Lol.

 

[LSUmiss]

There may be some truth to all these points, BUT...it's still more crowded during school holidays. Wait times are usually still lower during less crowded days. Everything else being equal, Monday is still not an ideal day to visit MK. Etc.

I disagree with the defeatist attitude that says "it's always busy, just go when you feel like it, no point trying to beat the crowds." And, if the crowd patterns are changing, let's learn how they have changed and what we can do about it. I'm certainly not going to show up on Christmas week and say "ahh, what's the difference? It's crowded anytime anyway."

My “defeatist” attitude comes from my experience of going at more crowded times & supposed less crowded times & not feeling a huge difference if at all. IME some parts of Christmas week (closer to NYE) were just as crowded as the last week of Feb last yr. We went for NYE last yr & NYE was packed as expected, but the surrounding days weren’t as bad as the last week of Feb the same yr. It was Mardi Gras week in Feb which I expected to be crowded, but that doesn’t usually show up on the radar of crowd calendars & Feb is considered a less crowded time.

 

[MikeOhio]

I appreciate that Josh was honest about the value of crowd calendars in todays world of reduced/unpredictable park hours and variable staffing rather than just continuing to milk them for clicks like many other sites.

 

[SaintsManiac]

There may be some truth to all these points, BUT...it's still more crowded during school holidays. Wait times are usually still lower during less crowded days. Everything else being equal, Monday is still not an ideal day to visit MK. Etc.

I disagree with the defeatist attitude that says "it's always busy, just go when you feel like it, no point trying to beat the crowds." And, if the crowd patterns are changing, let's learn how they have changed and what we can do about it. I'm certainly not going to show up on Christmas week and say "ahh, what's the difference? It's crowded anytime anyway."

It's not a defeatist attitude. It's a realistic approach. I expect high crowds no matter when I go. I make a good plan that works with that and if it's not busy then I am pleasantly surprised.

 

[SouthFayetteFan]

My “defeatist” attitude comes from my experience of going at more crowded times & supposed less crowded times & not feeling a huge difference if at all. IME some parts of Christmas week (closer to NYE) were just as crowded as the last week of Feb last yr. We went for NYE last yr & NYE was packed as expected, but the surrounding days weren’t as bad as the last week of Feb the same yr. It was Mardi Gras week in Feb which I expected to be crowded, but that doesn’t usually show up on the radar of crowd calendars & Feb is considered a less crowded time.

It's not a defeatist attitude. It's a realistic approach. I expect high crowds no matter when I go. I make a good plan that works with that and if it's not busy then I am pleasantly surprised.

I would agree with both of these statements. Additionally, the way Disney staffs has a huge impact. Obviously it's noticeable when they are running a ride at less than full capacity, but it also can be seen with quick service eating places where they open less registers, or some of the snack carts that aren't open. When Disney is at its busiest they typically will have all hands on deck, i.e. rides at full capacity, every register open at QS places, etc... What that means is that while there may be less people there during a "slower" week, the lesser staffing still forces you to wait a little longer for rides, etc. and actually lessens the impact of the lower crowds. It's an unfortunate reality - and while this has always been the case, I think they are trying to be more lean with staffing now when they can.

 

[OneinThree]

I disagree with the defeatist attitude that says "it's always busy, just go when you feel like it, no point trying to beat the crowds."

I wouldn't characterize it as any sort of "defeatist attitude", as much as I would say that this is the new reality at Disney. I live here, and feel safe in saying based on my experience that if you do happen to hit on a slower day, you've caught lightening in a bottle, so to speak. There really isn't a "slow season" anymore. Summer seems to be dropping off some, and it *may* be a trend from what I can see. That WDW is busier during school holidays remains more common sense than it is a unique discovery by the makers of these "crowd calendars".

 

[zebrastreyepz]

I mean how do you disagree what if the family providing the report or the online venue is more in certain area than other areas? It’s a totally subjective thing too on what someone considers “crowded” and what others do as well.

I disagree that crowd calendars are worthless.

Crowded is subjective as different people have different expectations.

Sorry if I was unclear.

 

[LSUmiss]

I would agree with both of these statements. Additionally, the way Disney staffs has a huge impact. Obviously it's noticeable when they are running a ride at less than full capacity, but it also can be seen with quick service eating places where they open less registers, or some of the snack carts that aren't open. When Disney is at its busiest they typically will have all hands on deck, i.e. rides at full capacity, every register open at QS places, etc... What that means is that while there may be less people there during a "slower" week, the lesser staffing still forces you to wait a little longer for rides, etc. and actually lessens the impact of the lower crowds. It's an unfortunate reality - and while this has always been the case, I think they are trying to be more lean with staffing now when they can.

I agree with this & said this before. I even noticed this like 10 years ago before it got as bad as it is now. I almost start to prefer an expected busy time b/c like you said WDW has all hands on deck.

 

[bladiator]

No, I’m pretty sure that was Josh at EasyWDW. TP is based off wait times, not crowd feel. Wait times are measurable data and they have algorithms and statistical analysis. The popular science article linked earlier in the thread about their approach is very interesting.

I think you're right, I got those backwards.

 

[Skellingtonj]

I’m convinced that people see them and say “oh look March is a slow month, let’s go then” and that happens times a billion and that’s why it’s crowded