Crowd Calendars 6 months out

[ParrotBill]

Doing our planning for April (just made our dining plans at 180 days) but found something surprising. Tried to use crowd calendars to help make decisions and surprisingly Kenny the Pirate's calendar and Undercover Tourist's calendar are very different. In fact they almost never agree for the 13 days of our trip! I ended up just using park hours and emh to try and make plans... knowing those will likely change too. I hate having to plan meals before we get reliable park hours.

Anyone else have the same issue, or do you have another approach?

 

[rwdavis2]

There are general rules that I've read.

1. Monday's at MK is crowded. People arrive on Sunday and then go to MK Monday.
2. Getting to a park at rope drop out performs almost any plan. Those first 2 hours are magic.
3. As you did, we used park hours and EMH. We did one morning EMH (MK) November last year then got out later in the day.
4. Although easywdw no longer does them the older calendars gave rationale for where you go on which days. If they are still there then try reading up on the month you plan to go. It might still be a decent guide.

 

[IrishNYC]

They both have different reasons for rating days differently. I would take them with a grain of salt, and add in your own logic. For example, if we are there during F&W or F&G, we avoid Epcot on Fridays and Saturdays for sure, and Sundays if possible. One of those calendars, if not both, recommend not going to a EMH park, whereas we prefer to go to DHS and AK on EMH days. I always avoid MK on EMH days.

 

[DisneyFive]

We pay for touringplans.com

I like their data based approach. We have used them for every trip. In the grand scheme of things, in relation to the cost of a WDW vacation, it's a drop in the bucket.

Dan

 

[CAS239]

Don't pay attention to crowd calendars. Your trip will be between a 6-8 crowd level. Put that to 9 or 10 around the holidays

 

[Klayfish]

Don't pay attention to crowd calendars. Your trip will be between a 6-8 crowd level. Put that to 9 or 10 around the holidays

This. Crowd calendars, IMO, are as reliable as flipping a coin or using a magic 8 ball. Go where you want on the days you want.

 

[SpaceMtnGirl]

Looking back KtP was much more accurate for our trip around Columbus Day weekend although we had went by Touring Plans. Take that for what it's worth! We are using KtP for our Spring Break trip.

 

[CeruleanMoon]

I just did my 180 day restaurant bookings too, so I'm guessing that we are going the same week. I found the same thing you did - that many of the crowd sites don't agree and sometimes flat out contradict each other! I ended up making a spreadsheet where I laid out all "best park" and "worst park" recommendations for Undercover Tourist, Kenny the Pirate, and Touring Plans. I also loaded in EMH days (in order to avoid them!) Then I looked to see if there were any days all these sites agreed on. I tried to stay away from "bad park" warnings for all three sites (if possible), and when there were disagreements, I would chose the parks that 2 out of the 3 sites agreed with. I found that Kenny and TP seemed to agree with each other more often than UT, so I gave those 2 sites a little more weight.

Yes, I probably spent hours on this. No, I wouldn't admit this to anyone but you guys. It was a lot of work, but also fun. I came out with a schedule that hopefully I'll be happy with, taking into account other things like placement of busy days vs rest days, water park day, etc. Now the big question is...how much will these recommendations change between now and 6 months from now? At some point I'm just going to have to let it lie and hope for the best!

 

[pitpat]

This. Crowd calendars, IMO, are as reliable as flipping a coin or using a magic 8 ball. Go where you want on the days you want.

I notice you say this often, but we could see a clear difference on our last two trips.

Staying at AoA which has separate lines for the parks, the lines we were in were clearly shorter than others. For example, the red parks for the day would be out of the queue while we walked up near the front of our line. It became a joke for us by the end of the trip.

I've seen so many first timers automatically pick the EMH park whether they will take advantage of those hours or not.

 

[buzznina]

After all our trips, I no longer spend any energy on crowd calendars and touring plans. I will say, stay away from Epcot on weekends during F&W.
Do RD and stay away during evening EMH's! Because we do the opposite

 

[hllb]

I've only used TP for our two previous trips and there was only 1 day that I think they got it wrong. Both sites use a data based approach, but, I can't speak to how statistically sound they actually are. I've got a better feel for TPs and it seems pretty strong statistically. But, they still have to determine which variables to use and that is a form of bias introduced into their model. I also feel that at least KtP adjusts recommendations based on day of the week as a matter of opinion. He will always say don't go to MK on a Monday because that's the first day of people's trips and they start there. That may or may not be correct, but based on an informal poll here, Monday was one of the smallest days as their "first day in a park".

That being said, yikes on the disagreements between the sites. My trip only had one day it disagreed on, but both sites rated it as low crowds anyway, so I decided it didn't matter that one day had it as best park and another had it as worst park.

 

[Micca]

Don't pay attention to crowd calendars. Your trip will be between a 6-8 crowd level. Put that to 9 or 10 around the holidays

I appreciate the general common sense in your crowd estimate. The best part about late April/early May is that spring break is over and summer breaks for schools hasn't yet begun. We did that time period this year (straddling the end of April/early May.) and I say it was around 5-6. We had to deal with some pretty heavy rain during our trip but we've honed our skills for weathering those storms.

 

[CeruleanMoon]

I appreciate the general common sense in your crowd estimate. The best part about late April/early May is that spring break is over and summer breaks for schools hasn't yet begun. We did that time period this year (straddling the end of April/early May.) and I say it was around 5-6. We had to deal with some pretty heavy rain during our trip but we've honed our skills for weathering those storms.

The crowd level estimates I'm seeing for the last week in April are in the 4-6 range generally. I'm hoping that stays accurate and that your past experience echoes next year's as well because that's when we're going!

 

[Klayfish]

I notice you say this often, but we could see a clear difference on our last two trips.

Staying at AoA which has separate lines for the parks, the lines we were in were clearly shorter than others. For example, the red parks for the day would be out of the queue while we walked up near the front of our line. It became a joke for us by the end of the trip.

I've seen so many first timers automatically pick the EMH park whether they will take advantage of those hours or not.

I wouldn't argue that you're "wrong", because it's a matter of perspective. In my opinion, and it's just that, sure there will be times when a crowd calendar is spot on. Just like flipping a coin, statistically speaking you're going to be exactly right 50% of the time. So plenty of people will say "Hey, it was exactly right". I do fully believe that there are some general conclusions that can be drawn based on historical data. Hard to argue with numbers. However, there are so many variables that a crowd calendar simply cannot predict or control that I think the margin of error is incredibly high...therefore, it's like flipping a coin. For me, it's also a mindset, which again everyone has their own. If I'm paying a lot of money to go to WDW, no way am I going let someones' guess about a crowd alter the things I want to do. I could never see myself saying "Gee, I'd really like to go to MK on Saturday, but someone (who I really don't know) gave it a code red, so I'll just go somewhere else instead". No way. If I want to be in MK, I'm going.

 

[SaintsManiac]

Expect 10s every day and then be happy when it's not that bad.

 

[pitpat]

I could never see myself saying "Gee, I'd really like to go to MK on Saturday, but someone (who I really don't know) gave it a code red, so I'll just go somewhere else instead". No way. If I want to be in MK, I'm going.

Really, Sunday would be better

 

[Wubar]

I ended up making a spreadsheet where I laid out all "best park" and "worst park" recommendations for Undercover Tourist, Kenny the Pirate, and Touring Plans. I also loaded in EMH days (in order to avoid them!) Then I looked to see if there were any days all these sites agreed on. I tried to stay away from "bad park" warnings for all three sites (if possible), and when there were disagreements, I would chose the parks that 2 out of the 3 sites agreed with.

LOL! I just finished up my own spreadsheet with the exact same information that you had! Other than wasting too much time wondering if "worst park on a overall light day" was better than "best park on a crowded day", we picked the parks we wanted to hit each day and based our ADRs off that. Unless FP+s show much more availability on one day vs the next, I think our park per day is set!

 

[mggeary]

Sadly easywdw crowd calanders are no more....

But its pretty easy to use the same logic on your own using EMH and a few rules of thumb. Target parks the day before or after they have EMH, especially good if you pick a day sandwiched in between EMH days. MK is always very busy on Sat and Mon. AK very busy on Sat EMH. Per easywdw, Sun has been the lowest crowd day for AK since Pandora. If there is a day that hours are cut short due to a holiday party, or special event, or nightime entertainment is not offered, that is always a great day to go if you don't need to see the nighttime stuff that particular day. Avoid Disney Springs on Fri/Sat nights if possible. Avoid Epcot on Food & Wine weekends. 8am non EMH openings are often great days to go to MK, particularly if offered midweek.

For example. A typical weekly EMH schedule might be: Sun (DHS), Mon (AK), Tue (EP), Wed (MK), Thu (EP), Fri (MK), Sat (AK)

A good park schedule for you might be Sun (AK or MK), Mon (EP), Tue (AK or MK), Wed (DHS), Thu (MK), Fri (AK or EP), Sat (DHS)

MK is particularly good on Thu, sandwiched in between EMH days, Epcot very good on Monday before popular night EMH on Tue. You get the idea.

If all else fails just go back to one of Josh's calendars from last year which are pretty similar to current situation.

For my two cents, i trust KTP much more than I would trust Touring Plans on crowd level predictions.

 

[DisneyFive]

Don't pay attention to crowd calendars. Your trip will be between a 6-8 crowd level. Put that to 9 or 10 around the holidays

That's a good point, for the OP's specific dates. Probably won't matter. All parks will be busy.

Dan

 

[kniquy]

He will always say don't go to MK on a Monday because that's the first day of people's trips and they start there. That may or may not be correct, but based on an informal poll here, Monday was one of the smallest days as their "first day in a park".

I find it hard to see any merit in this statement. I would say if anything -- people vacations would start on Saturday or Sunday, but then factor in that some people might fly in after work on a Friday or that flights on Tuesday are generally cheaper -- i think there are too many variables for this statement to make sense. Of our recent 3 trips - one started on a Wednesday, one on Tuesday and the next one starts on Saturday. It is not like WDW sets a certain check in/check out day.

Of our trips Epcot has typically been our first park of our trip -- maybe that should be another poll as to which park people hit first. We certainly like to end our trip at MK, but don't necessarily need to start it there.

Crowd calendars --i have put little weight on them -- we will factor in the EMH as i do think it has an impact on crowds. We will hit a morning EMH for a little bit and then get out and spend the day elsewhere or we might brave the evening EMH just to see what we can hit. We have nothing to lose as we just spend our day at our preferred park. Just make a plan that works for you - hoppers are the best way to navigate and have the most flexibility to take advantage of EMH and avoid crowds.