I think that the reason people say crowd calendars aren't as reliable as they used to be is because some of the old conventional Disney touring wisdom doesn't seem to apply anymore. I think blanket statements like "Avoid Magic Kingdom on Saturdays" or "Avoid parks on EMH days" are not necessarily true anymore. But, as others have said, going in mentally prepared for the crowds, utilizing rope drop, and getting fastpasses for your must-dos are ways you can make any crowd level seem more manageable. I say go and see what you think. You sound like you're preparing the best you can. Plus, let's face it - any day at Disney is a great day!
I think many of those blanket statements were never universally true. I'm originally a
Disneyland person. Day of the week there matters probably 10 times more than it does at WDW with Saturday its busiest by far. Not nearly so much at WDW. Back when 98% of this board was saying avoid Saturdays, I was going in to very easy conditions. Now to be sure, some Saturdays are to be avoided such as those on a three day weekend and Saturdays that bracket a holiday or if you see a special event that will draw more people in. Similarly, avoid emh parks never was a universal general statement.
Here are my emh rules. They often require a judgement call and aren't totally hard and fast. No one size fits all.
1. If you don't want to remember rules avoid emh parks entirely. More often than not, that is the better strategy.
2. If you aren't staying at a hotel with that benefit, avoid emh parks entirely.
3. If you don't have hoppers, you should consider avoiding emh parks. Without hoppers, you cannot hop out of a bad situation if it arises.
4. Never show up to a morning emh park late or after the emh is over.
5. If it is very crowded time of year consider violating rule 3. It's packed anyway so what is a few more? and the extra time will be well spent.
6. If it is a slack time of year, consider violating rule 3. hours are usually short and you'll want some extra time. An extra 10% of a very low number is?????? Also a very low number.
7. You get more time at an evening emh, but it does not start from a zero line condition.
8. A very late evening emh will be less crowded than one that starts earlier, but you won't want to get up for morning touring the next day.
9. If you otherwise intend to go back to the hotel for rest in the afternoon, then hop, consider emh strongly. This is its maximum benefit of morning emh. You lose no time in the transfer because you were going back to rest anyway.
10. IF you don't intend to rest consider that it takes about 30-45 minutes to go from your ride to the gate to the transportation to the new park to your first ride. You will lose back quite a bit of time in your transfer and you won't be hitting the new park at a zero line condition. Sleep can be at a premium at WDW and in this situation, it's probably best to consider the extra hour of sleep and just going to your intended park.
11. If Disney adds an emh while you're down there, avoid that park. Disney is expecting crowds. This usually occurs at MK.
12. When emh planning, consider your schedule. A schedule attending emhs that gets you 6 hours sleep in a 60 hour time period isn't ideal.
13. I would consider emh more on a shorter trip than a longer one. You can use the extra time.
