Contemporary Rumor

[tjkraz]

if there is any truth to the rumor that SSR is nearing a sell-out

They have about a year left to go at SSR.

...and assuming that the sales rate for AKV will end up being 'faster' than that of SSR because of a higher interest level among non-members...

That's a pretty big assumption.

According to stats posted here, SSR was actually selling at a rate about double the pace from 2000 to mid-2003 when SSR was first offered. While every resort will speak to different people in different ways, I think it would be a mistake to simply assume that AKV will sell faster than those that came before just because of a little Internet buzz.

...as well as the fact that AKV will have fewer units to sell...

Fewer units but with many of the rooms having higher nightly point requirements than SSR units, it's not exactly apples-to-apples. AKV will have less than SSR to sell, but not the number one would thing when looking solely at the number of units per resort.

Also, there's always the possibility of DVC expanding further at AKV. SSR was originally supposed to have 12 buildings and later grew to 18. Can we definitively conclude that the same won't happen at AKV? Unless I'm mistaken, even after the DVC room conversions, Jambo House is still the largest cash resort in the Deluxe class. Taking the 5th and 6th floors for DVC was a convenient cutoff point. Perhaps the 4th floor will be next.

Another factor you didn't address is other DVC developments. SSR has been the sole resort offered for sale practically since it was introduced. In light of persistent rumors regarding Disneyland and off-site developments, either of those projects could severely impact sales of SSR and AKV. Certainly they would open up new markets, but we have seen hundreds (thousands?) of members buying SSR and AKV points from the California sales center. In my opinion, sales of WDW-based points to west coast members would drop to near zero if they start selling a DL-based resort in the near future.

Construction time for the DVC CR (if that's what it is) is also an unknown. It took them over 6 months just to demolish the old structure (started in September, finished in April). They don't appear to be in any big hurry to complete whatever it is they are working on. It took Disney 2 1/2 years to open the first units at Saratoga Springs. That included re-using portions of the old Disney Institute, and features guest buildings that are only 4 stories tall. How long will it take to construct a 15-story tower, particularly given that the property is not as accessible as others on Disney property?

Depending on a lot of different market conditions, it's not totally out-of-bounds to think that they might be selling CR by 2009, but I can't see the facility opening to guests in '09.

...it's not THAT long to wait - especially considering that the CRV rumors have already been flying for what seems like years!

Oh, it doesn't just "seem like years."

 

[nuts]

why would it be 'long after 2009'?

if there is any truth to the rumor that SSR is nearing a sell-out (what - approximately 4 yrs after its initial offering?) - and assuming that the sales rate for AKV will end up being 'faster' than that of SSR because of a higher interest level among non-members, as well as the fact that AKV will have fewer units to sell - then might one expect to see the next DVC announcement 2 1/2 - 3 yrs after the initial offering of AKV??? that would put it at late 2009 / early 2010. seems that timeline may ALSO coincide nicely with the construction schedule for "whatever's" going on over at the Contemporary

...it's not THAT long to wait - especially considering that the CRV rumors have already been flying for what seems like years!

Construction will take longer than 2009, plus time share laws prevent you from selling until construction is near completion. Given that this is a tower (well, that is the drawing we saw)...they won't be able to build in phases as they have with SSR and AKV. So they will not be able to sell until near completion.

AKV starts sales this year...sellout, if we use other DVC's as a guide, will probably be 2011 to 2012 range. If this is the next DVC on property, I expect an announce in late 2010, with sales beginning in 2011. Now, for me, there are about 10 DVC trips I will take before then. Waiting is not an option for me

 

[spiceycat]

go look at the map on DVC site - it says that the building won't even begin until after 5/2008 for the AKV - when they have done the Jambo House.

so year 2010 - sounds about right for the sell out of AKV - okay maybe a little longer.

although if the CRV is ready for the market before then - DVC will do it.

they have sold several DVC resorts before. They can and will again.

the sales guide like customers to have a selection. If people can pick between several resorts they are less likely to say 'NO'.

Some guests will prefer CRV, others will prefer AKV - like other right now prefer SSR.

everyone has different taste - what words for me - doesn't work for my friends.

that say the new rehab has made CR a hot property (hasn't been this hot since the 70's). So I can understand DVC not wanting to pay the price for this hotel that Disney hotels is probably asking.

Disney Institue was a almost a give to DVC. Disney couldn't get people to stay over there without dropping the price to almost a value. They were not going to do that.

DVC will have to pay big time for the CRV. Unless they are waiting to see if the new wears off and it is again being offered at very, very reasonable prices. Which I can understand.

Something is going up there - still hope it is a DVC resort. but time will tell.

the only different between a Disney Suite and DVC resort is the kitchen. but I guess they can still put in a kitchen and call it a suite?

 

[psu4glory]

They have about a year left to go at SSR.

assuming that you're correct - and i have no reason to doubt - that means that sales of SSR are 80% complete. in my book, that translates to "they are nearing completion"...

Also, there's always the possibility of DVC expanding further at AKV. SSR was originally supposed to have 12 buildings and later grew to 18. Can we definitively conclude that the same won't happen at AKV? Unless I'm mistaken, even after the DVC room conversions, Jambo House is still the largest cash resort in the Deluxe class. Taking the 5th and 6th floors for DVC was a convenient cutoff point. Perhaps the 4th floor will be next.

Another factor you didn't address is other DVC developments. SSR has been the sole resort offered for sale practically since it was introduced. In light of persistent rumors regarding Disneyland and off-site developments, either of those projects could severely impact sales of SSR and AKV. Certainly they would open up new markets, but we have seen hundreds (thousands?) of members buying SSR and AKV points from the California sales center. In my opinion, sales of WDW-based points to west coast members would drop to near zero if they start selling a DL-based resort in the near future.

you are correct - i did not address either of these possibilities. the fact is, we know what we know. AKV may end up being larger than currently anticipated - it may not. DL DVC may be announced in the next couple of years - it may not. what we do know is that SSR will take approximately 5 years to sell out the 800+ unit resort. 80% of the way through the sales, AKV was announced. knowing what we know about the expected size of AKV, then - and not taking into consideration the possibility of DL DVC - AKV sales could hit that 80% level in late 2009 or early 2010.

Construction time for the DVC CR (if that's what it is) is also an unknown. It took them over 6 months just to demolish the old structure (started in September, finished in April). They don't appear to be in any big hurry to complete whatever it is they are working on. It took Disney 2 1/2 years to open the first units at Saratoga Springs. That included re-using portions of the old Disney Institute, and features guest buildings that are only 4 stories tall. How long will it take to construct a 15-story tower, particularly given that the property is not as accessible as others on Disney property?

not sure what your point is re: the property accessibility...but assuming that "construction" is slated to begin soon at the CR (judging from the newly spotted mountains of drainage pipes on site), then late 2009 / early 2010 puts them at 2 1/2 to 3 yrs of construction. maybe it's near completion then - maybe not...but that's quite a bit of construction time w/FLA weather

Depending on a lot of different market conditions, it's not totally out-of-bounds to think that they might be selling CR by 2009

that's all i'm sayin'!

 

[kim532]

I am glad my first post brought up this whole timeline discussion. It is very interesting. For me waiting until 2010 isn't a big deal. We just went down in April and this was going to be our last trip until our adoption was completed. We want our next trip will be with DD/DS and then a trip every year after that.

I don't want to take this OT, but what scares me about waiting is cost. If CRV is a go, will it be priced higher than others (taking out inflation and other factors that drive the price up)? I guess I am asking if it will it be premium priced due to demand and location?

Thanks,
Kim

 

[tjkraz]

I don't want to take this OT, but what scares me about waiting is cost. If CRV is a go, will it be priced higher than others (taking out inflation and other factors that drive the price up)? I guess I am asking if it will it be premium priced due to demand and location?

DVC actually has two ways of impacting the profitability of a facility: the $$$ they charge per point AND the structure of the point table for the resort. If AKV is any indication there probably won't be any big bumps in price. Right now they are selling SSR for a net of $94 per point (to new owners) and AKV with 3 more years of ownership for $96.

I think what is more likely is that they will set the nightly point costs to secure a room higher than all previous resorts. They did that to some extent at AKV. To illustrate, a Two Bedroom Villa in the Preferred View category at the BoardWalk (including the BW view rooms) is 32 pts in Choice season and 34 pts in Dream season. At AVK the same room with a Savannah View is 33 pts and 35 pts. A minor increase when comparing the most select rooms.

That said, AKV is tough to compare to other resorts. Despite the appeal of the savannah to many, the AKL has had one of the lowest occupancy levels in Disney's Deluxe resort category. In my opinion, that's a big part of the reason why you can get a Value AKV room for point costs that rival Old Key West and a Standard (mostly non-savannah) View room for less than Saratoga Springs.

But if this CR design does come to pass, I think in particular the rooms facing toward the Magic Kingdom may cost 10-15% more points per night than all prior DVC locations. The nightly point costs determine how many points DVC can sell for each room it constructs. Charging 40 points per night for a Two Bedroom villa puts a lot more money in Disney's pockets than if they were to charge 35 pts per night.

So, while points may cost about the same (after inflation adjustments) as they do now, you will almost certainly have to buy more points to stay a week at the CR than you would for the same size room at SSR or most classes at AKV.

 

[asianway]

2 years is plenty of time to build a 15 story building, in Florida work can progress all year round.

 

[asianway]

Agree 100%, the price per point will not be much different, but the points per night will give a lot of DVCers sticker shock.

 

[tjkraz]

2 years is plenty of time to build a 15 story building, in Florida work can progress all year round.

Saratoga Springs was announced in January '02 and the first units (just 46 rooms) didn't open until May '04. That included almost 9 months when DVC was exclusively in pre-sales because SSR was the only thing they had available.

Phase 3 of SSR was announced in May '04 and units didn't start opening until November '06.

AKV was announced in October '06 and Kidani Village won't begin to open (again, in phases) until early 2009.

Those projects are all much smaller in scope than a 15-story tower, yet they took (or will take) well over 2 years to complete. One would think that Disney would have completed these projects sooner if it was possible. Being in pre-sales mode for nearly a year on SSR was far from ideal. Every customer they were selling to had to wait months before using their first points. On AKV, the converted rooms at Jambo House will certainly sell out in less than 2 years, again leaving them selling Kidani Village units still under construction.

Resort construction at WDW doesn't seem to happen very quickly.

 

[asianway]

We are not talking about announcement to opening. Footers are being laid, utilities are being installed. Hi Rise construction goes very quickly, I think you will be surprised.

 

[CR Resort Fan 4 Life]

The way I see things construction has already began for the DVC building at the Contemporary, however since it has not officially been announced that is why some people think it will take forever.

 

[tjkraz]

Time will tell.

I'll say one thing--if the artwork being circulated is accurate, they couldn't have chosen a blander design for the structure. They certainly won't lose any time working on exterior design.

 

[CR Resort Fan 4 Life]

Time will tell.

I'll say one thing--if the artwork being circulated is accurate, they couldn't have chosen a blander design for the structure. They certainly won't lose any time working on exterior design.

If the design is the one that was linked to that website, I think it looks perefct for the Contemporary.

 

[RoyalCanadian]

Not me. I'm holding out for Sodom and Gomorrah Villas (SGV).

Just don't ever look back when you leave.

 

[psu4glory]

Those projects are all much smaller in scope than a 15-story tower, yet they took (or will take) well over 2 years to complete. One would think that Disney would have completed these projects sooner if it was possible. Being in pre-sales mode for nearly a year on SSR was far from ideal. Every customer they were selling to had to wait months before using their first points.

i'm not saying that DVC is in the habit of dragging their feet when it comes to constructing new units ...but with the persistent buzz for a monorail DVC resort, there may be that little 'extra' incentive for them to step it up a notch for CRV. plus - i agree with those that have said that construction has ALREADY begun on whatever's happening over there. however long it's destined to take, the clock has started

 

[keishashadow]

Construction will take longer than 2009, plus time share laws prevent you from selling until construction is near completion. Given that this is a tower (well, that is the drawing we saw)...they won't be able to build in phases as they have with SSR and AKV. So they will not be able to sell until near completion.

AKV starts sales this year...sellout, if we use other DVC's as a guide, will probably be 2011 to 2012 range. If this is the next DVC on property, I expect an announce in late 2010, with sales beginning in 2011. Now, for me, there are about 10 DVC trips I will take before then. Waiting is not an option for me

If they convert a couple floors of the tower or south building to "studios" as in case of AK - why couldn't they start to sell? Once the DVC tower is completed, they could then revert the inventory back to resort; more of a deluxe room = bigger $?

Anyone know the law as to % required before pre-sales and whether you can convert existing units to TS then transfer back?

 

[3DisneyKids]

If they convert a couple floors of the tower or south building to "studios" as in case of AK - why couldn't they start to sell? Once the DVC tower is completed, they could then revert the inventory back to resort; more of a deluxe room = bigger $?

This is a great suggestion and would certainly help move things along. However, I don't think they want to necessarily move things along right now. SSR needs to sell out first, IMO. (And I was just there this week and heard 2 DVC CMs state August of THIS year is the predicted sell out date for SSR. Again...time will tell).

I don't think there would be any problem selling CRV at AKV at the same time. Both very cool and themed with lots of unique perks (monorail vs. Savannah)...and since they are so different I think they could easily sell at the same time. As Pat said earlier on this thread....DVC is, has and WILL again sell more than one at a time. At the height, there were FOUR being sold all at the same time.

We would love a DVC at the CR and would likely add-on there since our two favorite parks are MK and Epcot. BUT...I am still hoping for something other than that C-shaped thing.

 

[tjkraz]

If they convert a couple floors of the tower or south building to "studios" as in case of AK - why couldn't they start to sell? Once the DVC tower is completed, they could then revert the inventory back to resort; more of a deluxe room = bigger $?

The main reason that AKL was selected as the new DVC location is because of occupancy problems at the resort. AKL had over 1300 cash rooms prior to this conversion. I can't think of another deluxe that has more than 1000--most are in the 700-800 neighborhood. AKL simply couldn't fill its rooms.

CR, on the other hand, has seen its occpancy skyrocket since the refurb. You have to book months ahead of time to get a room in the tower now. I just plugged two random dates into the trip calculator at waltdisneyworld.com (last week of July, last week of October.) Neither periods had any CR tower rooms available (July had some availability at concierge level). By comparison, for the same dates AKL had all room classes available. And that's AFTER the DVC rooms were removed from inventory.

This high demand is the main reason why you will continue to see doubt expressed about any CR villas until Disney officially makes an announcement. The Disney business units who operate the cash resorts and DVD are two separate entities and they both have their own interests to protect. I still have my doubts about why they would ever give that great piece of land right next to the MK to DVC for the next 60 years, much less could I envision them giving DVC rooms in the Tower.

Even from a profit and loss standpoint, Disney Vacation Development has to lease the land on which they construct a resort. The terms of that lease (which will have a real basis on the value of the land itself) will play a big part in determining the profitabiliy of the project.

While I'm sure a lot of people would jump at CR villas, they have also jumped at other more isolated locations. SSR and AKV are both on the fringes of WDW property, yet sales in recent years surpassed all expectations. There may be an overwheming amount of evidence pointing to the new building being a DVC facility, but we're talking about probably the most valuable piece of undeveloped land at WDW adjacent to the hottest resort on property.

Do the additional DVC sales really justify giving up the $500+ per night (even more for a villa / suite) they could charge for 500-600 brand new cash rooms, many with a skyline view of the Magic Kingdom?

Regarding DVC I keep hearing variations on the same story, which is that the CR was slated to be the site of the 8th DVC resort but that escalating costs and infighting at Disney over the final ownership of the project forced them to settle for AKL instead. As far as I'm concerned, it's entirely possible that those issues haven't been fully resolved even today. Disney stands to make a lot of money off of that site whether they sell the rooms on a cash basis or as DVC points. So paint me skeptical until points go on sale.

 

[spiceycat]

I keep hearing variations on the same story, which is that the CR was slated to be the site of the 8th DVC resort but that escalating costs and infighting at Disney over the final ownership of the project forced them to settle for AKL instead. As far as I'm concerned, it's entirely possible that those issues haven't been fully resolved even today. Disney stands to make a lot of money off of that site whether they sell the rooms on a cash basis or as DVC points. So paint me skeptical until points go on sale.

as I and others have stated we would be more than happy to share. Let CR have half - just as long as DVC gets half too.

of course with my luck - CR would get the ones with a MK view and DVC would not.

 

[Northern Lights]

I have been thinking about/planning/saving to buy CRV since the rumor first started and I came to the same conclusion as tjkraz about the cost structure. OKW already has a significant discount over BCV - and perhaps the other DVC resorts (I never check b/c it is always BCV or whatever is available if we do an unplanned trip). We took a last minute trip to WDW in December last year and could only get a room at OKW - we were pleasantly surprised at the point discount - I want to say it was about 20 points (4 per night) cheaper.

Our first love has always been the CR but as we saw prices start to escalate - and after touring the Beach Club and loving the location and SAB - we bought BCV resale in 2004. Because we are basically funding a grand gathering for the extended family next year we decided to bank our remaining BCV points and splurge and stay at the CR for this summer -we booked a MK view room in January for the whopping price of $500 per night (after tax) with the hope that we would get an AP discount later. When we used to stay at CR before we purchased BCV, you simply requested a MK view. Now, Disney has gotten more sophisticated in their pricing and you have to pay extra for the MK view. Anyway, no AP discount has been offered yet and I don't expect to receive one now as we are under 30 days to our trip and the Tower has been sold out for a few months.

Given they are building a new tower (i.e., more rooms than the previous wing) I'm optimistic that at least 300 rooms or so will be DVC. However, I'm planning to have to pay between $21,000 - $25,000 for a minimum contract (guessing about 180 - 200 points) at CRV.

Although obviously expensive - especially compared to what we paid for our BCV points - this is not too bad considering what it now costs to stay in the Tower. Besides, this would be perfect for our family as we have really enjoyed going twice a year by using studios but when the kids get older we are going to need at least a 1BR if not a 2BR and we would love to have CRV for the Christmas trip and BCV for the June trip.