Consumer Confidence Drops to 14 Year Low

[MassJester]

Are consumers right, is the worst for this economy yet to come? Is this just a normal economic cycle, or is something wrong?

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Declines 12 Points
February 26, 2008


The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined in January, fell sharply in February. The Index now stands at 75.0 (1985=100), down from 87.3 in January. The Expectations Index declined to 57.9 from 69.3. The Present Situation Index decreased to 100.6 from 114.3 in January.

The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by TNS. TNS is the world's largest custom research company. The cutoff date for February's preliminary results was February 19th.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: "The Consumer Confidence Index continues losing ground and, with the exception of the Iraqi War in 2003, is now at its lowest level in nearly fifteen years (Nov. 1993, 71.9). The weakening in consumers' assessment of current conditions, fueled by a combination of less favorable business conditions and a sharp rise in the number of consumers saying jobs are hard to get, suggests that the pace of growth in early 2008 has slowed even further. Consumers' expectations have also deteriorated significantly and are now at a seventeen-year low (Jan. 1991, 55.3). With so few consumers expecting conditions to turnaround in the months ahead, the outlook for the economy continues to worsen and the risk of a recession continues to increase."

Consumers' appraisal of present-day conditions weakened significantly in February. Those claiming business conditions are "bad" increased to 21.8 percent from 20.1 percent, while those claiming business conditions are "good" declined to 18.5 percent from 20.6 percent. Consumers' assessment of the job market was considerably more pessimistic than last month. Those saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 23.8 percent from 20.6 percent, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 20.6 percent from 23.8 percent.

Consumers' short-term expectations also deteriorated considerably in February. Consumers expecting business conditions to worsen over the next six months increased sharply to 21.4 percent from 16.3 percent, while those anticipating business conditions to improve declined to 9.5 percent from 11.5 percent in January. The outlook for the labor market was also significantly more pessimistic. Those expecting fewer jobs in the months ahead surged to 27.9 percent from 21.9 percent, while those anticipating more jobs declined to 9.0 percent from 10.5 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase declined to 17.0 percent from 18.1 percent.

Source: February 2008 Consumer Confidence Index
The Conference Board

 

[punkin]

tip of the iceberg IMO, but I already said I was a pessimist.

 

[MassJester]

tip of the iceberg IMO, but I already said I was a pessimist.

You did mention that.

I don't know--it is disturbing to think that things look worse than they did after 9/11.

 

[punkin]

After 9/11 our economy was essentially sound. The terrorist act was just a single occurrence and we were able to recover quickly. This is not the case now. There is a credit crisis (at least 2 years to work out); housing crisis (5 years at least); enormous foreign debt (anyone's guess); budget deficit (depends who gets elected).

 

[JoeEpcotRocks]

I'm optimistic that any recession will be mild.

We economically recovered from 9/11; we can recover from anything.

 

[crazyforgoofy]

I'm optimistic that any recession will be mild.

We economically recovered from 9/11; we can recover from anything.

Even 8 years of George W?

 

[Fitswimmer]

Even 8 years of George W?

Well, as far as GW's supporters are concerned, there are no problems now-all the problems will magically appear on Jan 21, 2009....and they will all be the fault of Hillary or Obama, whichever one wins.

 

[disneyfan67]

After 9/11 our economy was essentially sound. The terrorist act was just a single occurrence and we were able to recover quickly. This is not the case now. There is a credit crisis (at least 2 years to work out); housing crisis (5 years at least); enormous foreign debt (anyone's guess); budget deficit (depends who gets elected).

I agree. America is in a way different situation than we were after September 11th 2001. We weren't in a war that is costing us billions upon billions a month and adding to the huge national debt as we speak. You factor in the uneasiness over the war, the burden of the housing crisis, and the large amount of CC debt consumers have, it doesn't look good. Also lets not forget about the shock of high energy costs and gasoline prices at the pump today either. High energy and gas prices cause everything to rise and force consumers to scale back, which of course hurts our economy that feeds/survives on consumption. It's going to take awhile for all of this to work it's way out and get our economy back on a sound, even keel.

 

[ford family]

Well, as far as GW's supporters are concerned, there are no problems now-all the problems will magically appear on Jan 21, 2009....and they will all be the fault of Hillary or Obama, whichever one wins.

Or neither.

ford family

 

[crazyforgoofy]

Or neither.

ford family

Hold that thought.

 

[punkin]

I'm optimistic that any recession will be mild.

We economically recovered from 9/11; we can recover from anything.

funniest thing I have read today. tell me do sell those rose colored glasses?

 

[JoeEpcotRocks]

Even 8 years of George W?

Huh? He hasn't hurt the economy.

Some people blame everything on the President.

 

[JoeEpcotRocks]

funniest thing I have read today. tell me do sell those rose colored glasses?

You're easily amused I guess.

 

[JoeEpcotRocks]

Well, as far as GW's supporters are concerned, there are no problems now-all the problems will magically appear on Jan 21, 2009....and they will all be the fault of Hillary or Obama, whichever one wins.

I think you meant McCain.

 

[Peter Pirate 2]

Huh? He hasn't hurt the economy.

Some people blame everything on the President.

And some people blame nothing on the President.

 

[Fitswimmer]

I think you meant McCain.

well, in that case the problems will stay invisible, since McCain is GW's third term....

 

[JoeEpcotRocks]

well, in that case the problems will stay invisible, since McCain is GW's third term....

Works for me.

 

[Fizzgig]

Heya, Joe! I got some more Girl Scout cookies... Lemon-something and thin mints!

 

[MassJester]

Works for me.

Well let's hope you stay in the minority.

 

[JoeEpcotRocks]

Heya, Joe! I got some more Girl Scout cookies... Lemon-something and thin mints!

Put me down for:

Thin Mints
Samoas
Do-Si-Dos