Civil War in Iraq? Poll

[dcentity2000]

Recent developments in Iraq have lead to a current knife-edge situation that threatens to bring the country down into all out civil war.

Baghdad's streets are almost deserted after Iraq's government put the capital and three provinces under curfew to halt sectarian violence.

The action, should you have missed it, was that the religious groups have resorted to violence:

At least 130 people - mostly Sunnis - have died since the al-Askari shrine, holy to Shias, was bombed on Wednesday.

To outline how grave the situation is, a said curfew has been instated and...

All police and army leave has been cancelled.

Hiwa Osman, an Iraqi Government spokesman, has acknowledged that civil war is now a distinct probability, saying:

Everything will fall apart if we have civil war.

He does, however, not believe that they are either in a state of civil war and firmly hopes that there will not be one.

Everyone, even the most radical, are calling for peace:

On Thursday radical Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr added his voice to those calling for restraint.

"The occupation is sowing sedition among us," he said.

"Do not allow this to weaken your determination, unity and solidarity."

Sadly, it doesn't appear to be working - yet:

Our correspondent says the latest violence has been shocking even by Iraq's standards.
...
The main Sunni alliance said it was pulling out of the emergency talks convened by President Talabani after the string of attacks on Sunnis.

It has also announced its withdrawal from negotiations to form a coalition government - a development which could have far-reaching consequences, our correspondent says.
...
Ayatollah Sistani has urged Shias not to attack Sunni mosques, but a spokesman for the cleric said anger might be hard to contain.

The scale of the problem is widespread:

the Association of Muslim Scholars - the main Sunni religious authority - said at least 168 Sunni mosques had been attacked across the country since the bombing on Wednesday, the Associated Press reported.

I could go on like this for ages. It's a pickle, no doubt about that. But will these poor Iraqis descend into a civil war, in keeping with many occupations in the past?

I hope not. What do you think?

[EDIT] I voted that it will not yet descend into civil war, but probably will in the future. Hussein kept everyone suppressed and now they're all springing out. I also feel that the occupation is a negative at the moment, as it is not a peace keeping force and rather an invading force. People resent that kind of thing.



Rich::

 

[Tigger_Magic]

I don't believe they are yet in civil war, but they are standing on tip-toe on the ragged, frayed edge of it. It may take just one more big incident like the Golden Mosque bombing to push things over the edge. The government must pull itself together ASAP and respond in an appropriate fashion. The feuding religious factions must realize that it would be in their best interests to unite against the common foe -- those who are desperately trying to plunge Iraq into a civil war. It's a lot to hope for, but remotely possible for them to achieve.

 

[sodaseller]

In the never-ending and likely futile quest to hope others see links I see, let me repeat what I think is prophetic passage from the 1963 Encylical Pacem in Terris - "Peace on Earth" from John XXIII

Little by Little

161. There are indeed some people who, in their generosity of spirit, burn with a desire to institute wholesale reforms whenever they come across situations which show scant regard for justice or are wholly out of keeping with its claims. They tackle the problem with such impetuosity that one would think they were embarking on some political revolution.

162. We would remind such people that it is the law of nature that all things must be of gradual growth. If there is to be any improvement in human institutions, the work must be done slowly and deliberately from within. Pope Pius XII expressed it in these terms: "Salvation and justice consist not in the uprooting of an outdated system, but in a well designed policy of development. Hotheadedness was never constructive; it has always destroyed everything. It has inflamed passions, but never assuaged them. It sows no seeds but those of hatred and destruction. Far from bringing about the reconciliation of contending parties, it reduces men and political parties to the necessity of laboriously redoing the work of the past, building on the ruins that disharmony has left in its wake."68

 

[CapeCodTenor]

I voted "not yet/it's still too soon to tell" because I'm optimistic that the average Iraqi on the street is getting tired of all this violence, and will do something to stop it.

 

[BelleMcNally]

In the never-ending and likely futile quest to hope others see links I see, let me repeat what I think is prophetic passage from the 1963 Encylical Pacem in Terris - "Peace on Earth" from John XXIII

Well, if not prophetic, it is profound. And right on the money, if you ask me.

 

[eclectics]

In theory, it started when each religious faction was allowed to vocalize without fear. Sporadic spats have now sadly turned into something verging on Holy War. I sure hope not, because it threatens our troops more than they already are.

 

[Longsx3]

Since DH is in the Middle of it ....I believe a civil war has already begun.

 

[dcentity2000]

It's sad news

Apparently the curfews have failed to contain a growing wave of violence...

At least 36 people have died in violence across Iraq as the authorities fight to contain sectarian killing in which at least 165 have died this week.

The bodies of 14 Iraqi commandos were recovered in south Baghdad following a gun battle with Shia militiamen.

At least two people were killed as the funeral of a TV journalist was attacked in Baghdad. And a car bomb in the Shia shrine city of Karbala killed eight.

Civil war is now on the table even more:

At least a dozen members of a Shia family are gunned down in Baquba, north of Baghdad, officials say

The number of Iraqi battalions able to fight the insurgency with no US help falls from one to zero, the US military tells Congress - but the number able to fight with some US assistance rises substantially

The main Sunni political party says it might consider returning to talks on forming a new government, from which it withdrew earlier in the week.

This week's violence - which has led to fears that Iraq may descend into civil war - was sparked by the bombing of one of the country's holiest Shia sites, the al-Askari shrine in the city of Samarra.

Source and full story: BBC News

I fear the situation may grow out of control since the current severe methods are failing



Rich::