You have a chance but it may depend on how fast your computer communicates with Disney's at 8 a.m. in relation to others. 2BR standards, both lock-off and dedicated, tend to disappear quickly Christmas week. Walking should be considered but you may have like problem finding a day to start walking because it appears many are doing it. For 2016, days during the week before Christmas disappeared quickly at 8 a.m. but four of them, Dec 19 through 22 had opened up again by the time you got to 11 months out from December 25. If considering a long walk the time to start would likely be the Sat or Sun after Thanksgiving. Lake View and Theme Park view had no issues at 11 months out.