Chances of being Rofred AKL 118 pp 160 points

[Michelle Mohr]

A seller accepted my offer for AKL 118 point for 160 points. I read a lot of contracts have been taken back from disney lately. Im nervous for what Id be paying for it disney is for sure going to take it back. Thoughts?

 

[intamin]

You’d probably have a better chance of predicting the wind 1 year from today. Supposedly last month they bought back as high as 135 and AKL is the 2nd most commonly ROFR’d this year. I think it’ll depend on how large the contract is, if it’s larger Disney can always turn those points around and sell them at much higher price per point on smaller contracts so that would also make it more likely for Disney to buy back, but really who knows what they’ll do.

Edit: I’m blind, just saw its for 160, I’m not sure if Disney will think it’s worth it since it’s moderately sized. I’d say 50/50 but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Cfabar1]

Disney has supposedly been not ROFRing as much lately so your odds seem better than a few months ago. But who knows….

 

[crazycatlady]

Was that the asking price? Just asking because I almost made on offer on Sunday for an AKL contract that was $118 per point but the use year was December and I need October.

 

[Michelle Mohr]

Was that the asking price? Just asking because I almost made on offer on Sunday for an AKL contract that was $118 per point but the use year was December and I need October.

18850 on fidelity

 

[Jonnnyap]

On the ROFR thread, someone just posted their 100 pt AKV for $115pp just passed, so hopefully yours will also. Good luck! Hope you get it. Our DVC home is AKV, and it’s fantastic.

 

[hookala]

Disney's stock price closed at 86.92 today. For comparison, the stock briefly (for like a week) fell below 86 in March 2020 during the covid market crash. It's down 42% this year. I'm pretty sure nobody at Disney is spending a nickel that doesn't need to be spent. Unless there's a buyer waiting who wants exactly your contract, you're gonna pass.

 

[Frederic Civish]

No one can say. I personally believe that Disney only offers to take a property on the ROFR if someone has already contacted Disney and made a request that fits those parameters. Disney DOES keep a 'waitlist' of people requesting certain properties.

However, that price seems low enough that I would expect Disney to take it on ROFR. Please keep us informed.

 

[Sandisw]

No one can say. I personally believe that Disney only offers to take a property on the ROFR if someone has already contacted Disney and made a request that fits those parameters. Disney DOES keep a 'waitlist' of people requesting certain properties.

However, that price seems low enough that I would expect Disney to take it on ROFR. Please keep us informed.

The direct sales of resorts that they have been active in ROFR have been well below the points taken.

So, while that may be one of the reasons, they must take them for other ones as well.

 

[tom1944]

There is so much information out and so many DVC employees it is surprising that the ROFR process or formula has not been leaked

I doubt they just buy them back on a whim

 

[Sandisw]

There is so much information out and so many DVC employees it is surprising that the ROFR process or formula has not been leaked

I doubt they just buy them back on a whim

The process is not meant to be predictable and the goals change regularly.

So, from what I have been told, there is no set “formula” applied. It can be a multitude of things used to decide on one contract.

The one thing that seems to be as close to predictable as we can guess is the international seller.

And, having a daughter who was a CM and involved in those infamous PIN codes years ago, she still doesn’t share how guests were chosen to get one!! Lol

 

[tom1944]

The process is not meant to be predictable and the goals change regularly.

So, from what I have been told, there is no set “formula” applied. It can be a multitude of things used to decide on one contract.

The one thing that seems to be as close to predictable as we can guess is the international seller.

And, having a daughter who was a CM and involved in those infamous PIN codes years ago, she still doesn’t share how guests were chosen to get one!! Lol

I am sure there are a multitude of reasons that a contract is subject to ROFR.

It still surprises me that the DVC experts have not been able to put together some type of calculator that may not be perfect but is a reasonable educated guess

 

[Sandisw]

I am sure there are a multitude of reasons that a contract is subject to ROFR.

It still surprises me that the DVC experts have not been able to put together some type of calculator that may not be perfect but is a reasonable educated guess

Well, the RoFR thread here is a pretty good source foe knowing what the floor at the current time might be. The resource put out by the board sponsor is also a nice guide.

But, as we have seen with SSR, for example, 6 months ago, anything in the 120s was almost sure to be taken..and now they are letting things pass below that.

The more that get through, the more aggressive buyers are with lower offers and the more agreeable sellers are who are aware that contracts are passing for less.

The one thing I think most agree on is that if you are offering more than what seems to be the ROFR trigger you have a better chance than if you are below it.

 

[BruinEd03]

A seller accepted my offer for AKL 118 point for 160 points. I read a lot of contracts have been taken back from disney lately. Im nervous for what Id be paying for it disney is for sure going to take it back. Thoughts?

No need to be nervous. If it gets taken by Disney, there are tons of other contracts out there. Not to mention even if it's below the lowest ROFR price, there's no guarantee Disney will take it.

 

[Bearval]

Disney's stock price closed at 86.92 today. For comparison, the stock briefly (for like a week) fell below 86 in March 2020 during the covid market crash. It's down 42% this year. I'm pretty sure nobody at Disney is spending a nickel that doesn't need to be spent. Unless there's a buyer waiting who wants exactly your contract, you're gonna pass.

DVD can change the use year and the number of points in the contract so they no long have to have June use year to sell if a buyer wants one.

 

[Sandisw]

DVD can change the use year and the number of points in the contract so they no long have to have June use year to sell if a buyer wants one.

To add to this, while they can, they still need to have the correct points in a different UY to change in order for it to be changed.

Right now, everyone is in their 2022 UY so it would be a pretty easy switch as long as any UY can be changed as long as it has those 2022 points exist.

As we start the 2023 UYS, those begin to drop off as options.

But, as you say, they can change a UY to make a sale if they have what they need to do it b

 

[Michelle Mohr]

No one can say. I personally believe that Disney only offers to take a property on the ROFR if someone has already contacted Disney and made a request that fits those parameters. Disney DOES keep a 'waitlist' of people requesting certain properties.

However, that price seems low enough that I would expect Disney to take it on ROFR. Please keep us informed.

Im expecting it to be taken as well. Ive been looking elsewhere just in case. I will let ya'll know.

 

[Bearval]

A seller accepted my offer for AKL 118 point for 160 points. I read a lot of contracts have been taken back from disney lately. Im nervous for what Id be paying for it disney is for sure going to take it back. Thoughts?

Right now I think anything $115 and above is safe, prices are starting to drift lower.

 

[Chefnerd]

I just got my email today confirming Disney passed on my contract I am purchasing. 160 Points for AKV for $118 a point

 

[Jonnnyap]

Congratulations! That's a great price. Hope you enjoy your AKV home.