CDC Director: Impending Doom

Hasn't that been said by medical experts since the beginning of all this?

Initially there were hopes that it would be eradicated.

But yes, it's been posited for some time that we're going to need to chase Covid, continually chase it through gene sequencing and continually adapt our vaccines and boosters. But it's not a little thing. Covid isn't influenza. Initially, one of the mistakes we made all over the world was to attack Covid as if it spread like influenza...via mostly symptomatic people (2/3 of influenza cases is spread via symptomatic patients)...from large droplets and fomites (virus settling on surfaces).

But we know with Covid we have more asymptotic spread than we do with influenza, studies are still being done to try and determine how much. And....Covid has much more of an "airborne" quality to it's spread than influenza does. With Covid, and asymptomatic person literally breathing in a room can infect others in that same room over time. That doesn't happen with influenza.

The biggest issue many scientists see going forward is how we battle Influenza and Covid at the same time. Remember, we have very, very little flu this year...all over the world. We've all been avoiding each other and/or wearing masks when we're together. This really shows how contagious Covid is....because even with all of the mitigation, all over the world, people are still contracting Covid. Now we're going to try and get back to some sense of a 2019 existence with both Covid and Influenza circulating at the same time.

If we have periods of time where hospitals are dealing with very sick Covid and Influenza patients....year in and year out, we're going to have issues with very overloaded hospital systems. Even with vaccines and therapeutics.

I am actually hopeful in the short term that we can have a much more normal existence, especially when compared to 2020. But Covid is really a game changer, for the whole planet.
 
OK, I'll bite. Please explain how the percentage tells you "enough testing is being performed."
The nations who have been successful in containing this (South Korea, for example) have consistently kept their positive test rate below 3%. The thought is that if your positive test rate is above that, there are positive cases undetected (due to lack of testing) and contributing to spread. American's are terrible at proactive health and our healthcare systems discourage seeking treatment as well so 3% might be a pipe dream here but it still should remain the target.

Our ideal would be a super low positive test rate as it means we're catching all cases and the number of cases is rock solid. When positive percentage goes up, it tells us the case number is lower than it should be as an increasing number of cases are going undetected.
I don't think there is any "best metric". It depends on what you do with the data. Case numbers will tell you the virus is still out there, and will POSSIBLY tell you whether the spread is going up or down, but they're not going to tell you that without looking at OTHER metrics. Just because you have an increase in positive cases does NOT necessarily mean the spread is getting worse. As I said, you need to look at the number of tests conducted. Case numbers on their own won't tell you how dangerous the virus is. You've got to look at hospitalization, ICU, ventilator use, long term effects, and death. If we had 300 Million Americans come down with this, but only 50,000 went to the hospital and 1,000 died, we wouldn't really blink an eye.
If we were talking random samplings the number of tests being performed would matter. 6k people taken at random would be expected to have twice as many cases as 3k people taken at random. That is not how Covid testing is conducted though. I see Covid testing as breaking down into 5 groups offhand:
1. Travel
2. Medical procedures
3. Occupational
4. Symptoms
5. Exposure

Groups 1-3 are random but the numbers are stable week to week. If we see a large surge in testing, I would speculate the vast majority of the increases fall in groups 4 and 5. Because of that, the test group is self selecting instead of randomized and the number of tests is largely meaningless.

Hospitalization, ICU, ventilator, and death are lagging indicators. I agree with looking at them but you have to keep the lag in mind when the data is analyzed. If hospitals have gone from 50%->90% capacity this week and the case numbers have been climbing for weeks prior... it's too late.
 
The point would be better made when you leave out the underlined part because I agree with the rest.

People do die from the flu, children die from the flu and it's not going to be a comfort to people who have lost loved ones from the flu to be told from someone else that they don't have too many stories about losing friends in a typical flu season. It's also just swapping one virus with another. If you want people to treat it seriously who haven't lost someone to covid then comparing not knowing people who have died from the flu is going to come across as contradictory.
I agree with you...people do die from the flu. It wasn't meant to be a comfort to anyone, the statement was more to the point that a pp had made comparing this to the average flu season. Which is admittedly deadly for some too. But my point in that was simply that there isn't a real comparison with those two things. The sheer numbers when compared,in so many ways highlight the differences. The similiarities,of course are the horrible sadness that accompanies each outcome to those affected. Again, I get what you're saying but my point about numbers is what it is.
 

I prefer to keep track of the vaccine numbers. There are now 155 million people with at least on shot and 55 million fully vaccinated. As these numbers rise, the number of new Covid cases will decrease.
Vaccination numbers are not increasing rapidly enough to quell an active outbreak. It's optimistic for the future but we're months away from the vaccine bringing new cases under control.
 
Soooo - on one hand we have "impending doom", but on the other hand, go ahead and travel if you're vaccinated. Talk about conflicting statements.
There is a difference between being fully vaccinated and being unvaccinated.
 
Soooo - on one hand we have "impending doom", but on the other hand, go ahead and travel if you're vaccinated. Talk about conflicting statements.
Not quite what they're saying. They're revising the recommendations for testing/quarantine related to travel but still not recommending it:
Fully vaccinated people can travel at low risk to themselves, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said Friday, but travel still isn't recommended at this time because of rising numbers of coronavirus cases.

The agency said that as long as coronavirus precautions are taken, including mask wearing, fully vaccinated people can travel within the United States without getting tested for Covid-19 before or self-quarantining after.

For international travel, fully vaccinated people don't need a Covid-19 test prior to travel -- unless it is required by the destination -- and do not need to self-quarantine after returning to the United States. They should still have a negative Covid-19 test before boarding a flight to the US, and a follow up test three to five days after their return, the CDC noted.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/02/health/cdc-travel-guidance-fully-vaccinated-wellness/index.html
 
Soooo - on one hand we have "impending doom", but on the other hand, go ahead and travel if you're vaccinated. Talk about conflicting statements.

The feeling of impending doom shared by Doctor Walensky was a plea for patience to citizens and leaders. She was asking for leaders to hold off on opening up too quickly....for people to hang on a bit longer....because we're "almost there" with respect to getting enough people vaccinated.

Today was an announcement that illustrates how those who are wise enough to be fully vaccinated....can experience the "freedom" that so many have been shouting about for the last year (+). I think most people will be pretty happy about this news.
 
I will say that DH and I expected not to be able to get it till most likely the summer, so we were super happy to get in last weekend for the first dose, looking forward to getting the second one, it will be a relief to get it... It looks like here in Florida on April 5th - 18 and over will able to get the vaccine... To which my Daughter and Son in Law have said they can't wait to be able to get it...

FL heatlh department said that 16+ will be eligible in FL on April 5th; the only caveat is 16-18 must get Pfeizer.

https://www.claycountygov.com/community/emergency-management
There are a lot of spots open at the Clay County GCS location April 5-8; they offer the Pfeizer, so DS has an appointment there on Tuesday..

Clay County is offering vaccines at the county fair, which started yesterday.


*April 1, 2021, at 3:30 p.m.* In partnership w/
@clayfair
&
@HealthyFla
,
@ClayCounty_EM
will have a COVID-19 vaccine site at the Clay County Fair. This site will be located at the first aid station, & vaccines are available to all persons 40+. http://Alert.ClayCountyGov.com.
 
Soooo - on one hand we have "impending doom", but on the other hand, go ahead and travel if you're vaccinated. Talk about conflicting statements.
THANK YOU. I was coming here to say this lol.
 

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