CCV projected to increase from $188 to $210 on 6/1/19

Discussion in 'DVC-Mousecellaneous' started by SpaceMountain77, Mar 11, 2019.

  1. deerh

    deerh DIS Veteran

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    You buy at $65/point like we did in 1999 at BWV. Kept it for the past 20 years, and go to WDW 1-2-3 times/year and now paid off.. Could sell for double what I paid for it-that is how!!!
     
  2. drusba

    drusba I went to Iowa once, and it was closed.

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    Buys mainly on impulse while at the park, but realizes that at best he can only purchase a low number of points, and even for that he needs to finance the purchase. At the behest of the salesman, who assures him he can easily get a studio at his home resort if he reserves with the 11 month window and can even get other resorts at 7 months out, he buys 75 points to assure getting the perks, and unbeknownst to him the points he gets are more cabin points being sold to purchasers who can only afford studios. Figures he has enough points to get a studio for five nights in the fall season, the time he always wants to go. Following the purchase, at 11 months out he goes online to reserve a studio for a time in fall 2020 and discovers he can only get it via wait list because CCV has developed a serious 11-month issue for its studios due to the "oversell" of the studios resulting from having the cabins that few can afford. Meanwhile, in late 2019 while waiting for his wait list to come through, he first receives the new dues estimate for 2020 which has his dues going up 8%. Then at the end of 2019, he receives a notice that the new point charts for 2021 are available. He goes to review the CCV point chart and sees that studios have gone up close to 20% per night for the fall season. He sits back and says to himself, "I can't believe a company like Disney did this to me."
     
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  4. crvetter

    crvetter DIS Veteran

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    To be fair this is something that is happening at all of the resorts for a noble reason of paying CM a living wage. So honestly I'm okay with the increase; however, I think sale people should be honest in telling those that buy that 2020 and 2021 dues are likely to increase higher than average across all resorts (but likely lower than the 2019 average increase, since most of the wage increase was stacked that year).

    Hopefully all of us that struck a cord with Disney about the 2020 increase and they decide seasonal adjustments should happen only. Though as you said the fall season can increase and rightfully should probably increase by quite a bit, IMO, being the most popular time.

    At least CCV is average is better than PVB since its average contract was for I think 20-25 more points at 150, which is even more of a difference when you consider the studios are significantly cheaper than PVB. So people are buying for larger units (likely the 2 beds not the cabins) not just studios, so there is some mix of buyers. It's even better than VGF where people bought on average less points too for a much smaller number of studios and 1 bedrooms at a much higher point cost. Really the only MK resort that seems to have great balance is BLT (price, contract size, unit distribution).

    As for the 182-188 price point of CCV (ignoring the cabins issue, which this paragraph is only doing to comment on the price, assuming you can get the unit you want, which is a bit of a simplification) isn't significantly higher in cost than the other MK resorts (aside from BRV), if you were purchasing a fair amount of points (150+) back before beginning of 2019. By the time you adjusted for incentives you were sitting around 160-165 a point. So yes slightly higher than resale at BLT (140 on average) but if you purchased correctly (use year considerations, etc) you got a years of points almost free that you could rent eventually saving you another 10-15 a point (and many resales are even stripped 2 years, not just 1 year, of points so could be another 10-15 a point savings depending what is on the market). So while DVC direct is getting expensive, though if the resort is a must have for an individual (and they are aware of the limitations) direct prices may make sense (if and only if) you properly consider all costs and compare to other resale resorts. Now buying direct for sold out resorts is almost never financially prudent unless you are looking for a small add-on 25-50 points, where it is chasing a unicorn. Buying the other MK resorts (aside from BRV) you have much higher point costs that CCV so while Disney may raise the points (or try to again) switching points from the Cabin (November/December will let us know their intentions) they have a significant cushion that can be absorbed before reaching the points per night of PVB/VGF/BLT(lake and TP), which if 2020's original charts are any indication DVC intends to move everything in lock-step anyways (if what they did was legally allowed I fully expect them to move everything in lock-step again just to a smaller degree). And Disney will move points from the Bungalows to the Studios at PVB, which if they do that I would fully expect them to increase the lock-off premium at VGF identical movements to keep those two resorts priced even at the studio level.

    It will be interesting to see if with incentives Riviera is priced similar to BCV (likely no in this case because it has the higher point chart), which is why Disney is probably exercising ROFR on those points to drive up the resale prices, IMO. CCV had the advantage they couldn't really set it higher than BRV, at onset, because no one would have bought it at a premium over BRV. I'm most curious what Reflections will be like, the leaked architectural drawing, if real, has a fairly large resort (at the detriment to FW) with what looks like a pool similar in vein to SAB, lazy river right looking over the lake. The original DVC resort over there did call for a lazy river so it isn't wild and since its a cash resort Disney might be more willing to spend. But new resale restrictions really put a damper on Riviera forward.
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2019 at 9:40 AM
  5. Bing Showei

    Bing Showei DIS Veteran

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    Makes sense.

    [searches eBay for gently used time machine]

    $65 back in 1999 is the equivalent of $100 today. 20% growth over 20 years while paying dues that outpaced inflation is nothing to write home about, financially. Was it a great prepayment plan on vacations? That argument could be made. But buying in direct in 1999 compared to a resale equivalent (supposing there was a resale presence in 1999) doesn’t make any more financial sense than direct vs. resale today.

    The question was how does one justify today’s direct prices over resale. I think the easy answer is small add-ons negate most resale savings, and current, incentivized resorts (excepting AUL) will have a smaller Delta with resale. If you like CCV, buying direct made the most sense in most cases. But buying BCV direct at $225? That’s a harder sell. And maybe that’s the point.
     
  6. BWV Dreamin

    BWV Dreamin DIS Veteran

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    Curious to know if there are any fixed weeks left, and if that fixed week price ( in the lowest season for my inquiring mind) have also increased?
     
  7. crvetter

    crvetter DIS Veteran

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    Fixed weeks are 10% premium on the points required to book that week on the initial point charts (2017 in this case I'm certain). The only difference in price is the 10% extra points and you lose any incentives. So if the week (Sunday check in to following Sunday) was 100 points in 2017 you would have to buy 110 and pay full price per point on 110.

    You then are guaranteed that week year in and year out. If that week in subsequent years is more or less than 110 you won't have to pay more points nor would you get any points back. The nice part about DVC fixed weeks is you can opt out of the fixed week (for that year it isn't permanent), if you do that you get 110 points, since that is what you bought.

    Last I heard they had some left still, most guides don't even know how they work.
     
  8. BWV Dreamin

    BWV Dreamin DIS Veteran

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    Yes I actually own a fixed week studio second week of December. I was wondering if they were going to increase that 10% premium in addition to the price per point.
     
  9. crvetter

    crvetter DIS Veteran

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    Sorry I misread your post,j I apologize. I was told once the resort was sold out they wouldn't sell anymore fixed weeks. At least that was what I was told when I was working very actively on figuring this out. Since this price increase is the sold out price I'm assuming no more fixed weeks then.
     
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  10. BWV Dreamin

    BWV Dreamin DIS Veteran

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    Wow, so unless one sells a fixed week at the resale market, Disney will not sell anymore fixed weeks direct once sold out! Wow.

    No apologies....its all good :)
     
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  11. crvetter

    crvetter DIS Veteran

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    I wonder if Disney exercises ROFR on them more than other contracts since they have to make whole (with Developer points) fixed weeks when the points owned on that contract are less than the points required to book the room for the week.
     
  12. BWV Dreamin

    BWV Dreamin DIS Veteran

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    Well, we may find out starting with the 2021 points chart. The last revision left me only 4 points extra instead of 11 points extra with the 2019 points chart.
     
  13. KAT4DISNEY

    KAT4DISNEY Glad to be a test subject

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    They have sold fixed weeks at both VGF and PVB after they were "sold out".
     
  14. crvetter

    crvetter DIS Veteran

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    Good to know. That’s interesting it was opposite of what I was told when I asked the sales leadership, shows they have miscommunication. So who is tracking all the deeds recorded post “sold out” to know guaranteed weeks are sold.
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2019 at 10:26 PM
  15. LAX

    LAX DIS Veteran

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    I realize this is way off topic (at least in terms of direct sale at CCV), but imagine this scenario playing out at DRR! That "poor" CCV owner can at least get a decent chunk of his initial outlay back on the resale market, but a DRR owner will most likely lose his shirt.

    LAX
     
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  16. 1SickPupe

    1SickPupe Support Our Troops

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    After reading all of these posts the one thing that goes through my mind is: How could I possibly recommend DVC to my family or friends? The cost per point and the restrictions have changed the way I feel about DVC.
    I am happy with my purchase but I paid $71 pt back in 2003 for BWV. I have more than made up for the costs but with the price per point now how could the average buyer justify their purchase in 2019?
    We love being at Disney but I believe 2042 might be the last year my family makes that trip.
     
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  17. LAX

    LAX DIS Veteran

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    I would never recommend anyone buying direct at these prices (actually even at prices a few years ago when I bought mine through resale). The numbers just don't make any sense even without crunching them. However, I used to suggest to friends & family that buying resale can be a good value. With this latest restriction and DVD's continued negative attitude towards resale owners, I would now recommend AGAINST buying DVC (even resale, of course).

    LAX
     
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  18. sleepydog25

    sleepydog25 Been here awhile

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    The reason I blink so much when I see current pricing (and think about future pricing) is that the purchasing power for most consumers hasn't budged much at all over the last 20-30 years. Wages have risen only slightly for middle class earners (even less for minimum wagers) and costs for consumer goods continues to outpace the wages. Disney's pricing has been even more aggressive. Points that I bought 10 years ago have an intrinsic value in that the point system has remained largely in my favor (despite recent attempts by Disney). Buying into the same essential system but for twice (and soon to be three) times what I paid makes no sense whatsoever for me. My "real" wages have not increased more than a couple of percent in any given year and, in some cases, has remained nearly stagnant. Disney could build the most elaborately themed, gorgeous resort possible and offer it for $200 a point, and I still wouldn't think twice about buying. Now, there are those out there who can afford to pay $300 a point without blinking, but they're bound for a different Disney than I can afford. DVC simply isn't a financial commitment I can recommend for the average middle class family. And that is a telling point about the direction Disney is headed. . .
     
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  19. CarolMN

    CarolMN DVC Co-Moderator Moderator

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    And yet park attendance continues to increase and DVD continues to sell out the WDW DVC resorts in spite of the pricing.
     
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  20. sleepydog25

    sleepydog25 Been here awhile

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    Yes, it does. Obviously, people are willing to take the plunge. However, for us, the numbers no longer work vis-a-vis buying more points.
     
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  21. KAT4DISNEY

    KAT4DISNEY Glad to be a test subject

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    And a little turn in things and attendance will pull back and DVC contracts will get foreclosed upon.
     
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