Cash vs. Points: How do I tell?

[emelee1053]

I have reservations for the last week in September and 1st week in October at SSR on DVC points. Now I see that the first week's dates at All-Star Music for the same period would be about $450.00 with the AP discount. I'm wondering if I should cancel the 1st week at SSR and go cash at ASM, or stay on DVC. I am planning a return trip in April which will be more expensive for cash, and cost more points for DVC, and I don't have enough DVC points for both trips.... How do I figure out which way is more cost effective? Thanks!

 

[ct_chris]

I am not sure what you cost/point is, but let's use $8/point (this would include you buy-in amortized over length of contract and 2012 MF cost)

Approximate cost for 1 week at SSR Studio DVC (355 sq. ft.)
The last week of September 2012 will cost you 95 points ($760)
The first week of October 2012 will cost you 102 points ($816)
Not sure when you are going in April 2013 but the first week (Easter week) will cost 159 points ($1272) and any of the other three weeks will cost 120 points ($960) .

You said ASM (260 sq. ft.) at $450 cost (40% AP discount). Did you include the 12.5% tax to your room cost? That would make the total $506 for a savings of $254. If you need to save points for next April's trip then the bigger question is will there be a 40% discount in April next year. If not then I would lean towards ASM your last week in Sept and save those points for April 2013, since you can't guarantee a 40% discount during Magic or Premier season. Do you have a estimate for the cost for a week at ASM in April 2013? If I use an estimate rack rate of $150/night + 12.5% tax then the total is the total at $1181. Which makes it $91 better then the first week in April and -$221 worse the other three weeks.

 

[Sandisw]

If you have no points to borrow--which is what I would do before I would pay cash--then you probably will get a better deal for September than for April.