Can Someone Explain This?

[bookwormde]

My point is there is no combination that will balance all of the factors. Season/dates, unit type, resort. You cannot come up with a points chart that completely pushes down demand in key times and redistributes to other dates.

Yes, Disney can redistribute points. But it won't balance demand to the extent needed. Someone who bought a small BWV contract for F&W might consider coming to F&G instead, but even if points go stupid cheap they are unlikely to say "AUgust! It's like Satan's flop sweat! LET'S GO!!!!" There is also no redistribution that can make all the 100-point owners at Poly go wild for a Bungalow.

I am not sure this is true, but it to do this the charts would bo so complcated that few would be comfortable with buying. Of course no system is perfect but DVC could do a lot better with rebalanceing demand by adjusitng points (as they are required to do)

 

[jerseyduke]

I've been reading about the increasing difficulty that people have when trying to book studios and how it can be difficult, even at 11 months sometimes. It seems that the problem may have been magnified when DVC lowered the minimum point requirement to just 50 points for new members which increased the amount of OWNERS without changing the amount of available units.

I am a very "simple" person so here is how I will explain my question, please forgive me if this makes no sense

Let's take a week in January at HHI...

A studio for the week is 54 points, a 1BR is 108, a 2BR is 146 and a GV is 213 for a total of 521 points. Let's say that DVC sold those points to 5 different owners as (5) 100 point contracts and each owner wanted to stay for that one week....see the problem?? They have 5 owners but only ONE of them has enough points to book a room (the studio) for the week. DVC didn't "oversell", in fact, they aren't even sold out since they still have 21 points left. Even with banking and borrowing, it would be impossible for all 5 of those owners to use their points over that week, correct?

Is this the problem we are seeing with studio availability across DVC as a whole? The amount of POINTS that were sold were completely legit, but it would seem like there are more OWNERS with small contracts that can only afford studios than there are studios in the system. They didn't oversell the points, they oversold the small contracts, right?

One think that I would note is in your example you talk about weeks. I myself have not yet stayed at a DVC resort for exactly one week, and I am not sure I ever will. I would go on to venture a guess that most DVC stays are not 1 week.

The 2 issues I see are probably an increase in walking, and the availability of the low point rooms.

Ex:
VGF - AT MOST 47 studios.

BLT and BWV - standard view can be hard to get.

I am curious to see what people say about the tower studios at Riviera!

For me, I am at a resort for the resort, not the room. (Of course this is different for others, some people want to hang in their room, work, chill, and room is more important) Since I am never in the room outside of sleep and getting ready, I tend to want the cheapest room that will meet my needs at the resort at which I want to stay. Despite my mother telling me that I am a beautiful and unique snowflake, I have a strong suspicion that a lot of others think this way as well.

 

[Sandisw]

I am not sure this is true, but it to do this the charts would bo so complcated that few would be comfortable with buying. Of course no system is perfect but DVC could do a lot better with rebalanceing demand by adjusitng points (as they are required to do)

There is an appendix in the multi site POS, that has a chart showing what the point cost would be if every use day was exactly the same, so that a person could stay at least one day a year at that cost,

Seasons, can raise or lower that number for each day, but in the end, it’s has to balance. So some of that comes in to play. What they did is a good start, but what I am noticing this fall, is that 11 months out, exactly, when I check a few hours in, studios are available at pretty much every resort, with the exception of CCV and VGF,,,spotty..

Now, not all views, but something. I am finding something Similar at 7 months. Studios available at other Resorts..not all views and all resorts, but some choice.

 

[bookwormde]

There is an appendix in the multi site POS, that has a chart showing what the point cost would be if every use day was exactly the same, so that a person could stay at least one day a year at that cost,

Seasons, can raise or lower that number for each day, but in the end, it’s has to balance. So some of that comes in to play. What they did is a good start, but what I am noticing this fall, is that 11 months out, exactly, when I check a few hours in, studios are available at pretty much every resort, with the exception of CCV and VGF,,,spotty..

Now, not all views, but something. I am finding something Similar at 7 months. Studios available at other Resorts..not all views and all resorts, but some choice.

There is an appendix in the multi site POS, that has a chart showing what the point cost would be if every use day was exactly the same, so that a person could stay at least one day a year at that cost,

Seasons, can raise or lower that number for each day, but in the end, it’s has to balance. So some of that comes in to play. What they did is a good start, but what I am noticing this fall, is that 11 months out, exactly, when I check a few hours in, studios are available at pretty much every resort, with the exception of CCV and VGF,,,spotty..

Now, not all views, but something. I am finding something Similar at 7 months. Studios available at other Resorts..not all views and all resorts, but some choice.

There is an appendix in the multi site POS, that has a chart showing what the point cost would be if every use day was exactly the same, so that a person could stay at least one day a year at that cost,

Seasons, can raise or lower that number for each day, but in the end, it’s has to balance. So some of that comes in to play. What they did is a good start, but what I am noticing this fall, is that 11 months out, exactly, when I check a few hours in, studios are available at pretty much every resort, with the exception of CCV and VGF,,,spotty..

Now, not all views, but something. I am finding something Similar at 7 months. Studios available at other Resorts..not all views and all resorts, but some choice.

Yes points on high demand days would have to go up and low demand day go down keeing total points the same for the resort until demand equilibrium is reached

 

[mustinjourney]

I really don’t understand why people would cram in 5 people in a studio. The studios is small enough for 4 then adding the 5th does not make it better

I know it’s a financial decision more than anything else. For me I would rather have a more pleasant stay without the risk of tripping over my kids. That’s why we only do a studio if we are 3. Going 5 I would book a 1br Perhaps a 2br. With two teenage girls it’s just more comfortable for everyone that they have their own room. Another option would be to book two studios which I also could see myself do, that would add to the problem we are seeing.

When we go to WDW we never do rope drop and staying 7-10 days we watch the fireworks maybe 2-3 times. For us the resort plays a big role as we have a lot of resort time and that’s why the room also need to have some comfortableness.

if my memory serves me correctly -- I believe you are from overseas. It seems that there is a pretty big difference in vacation styles for Americans at WDW vs other world travelers, since most everyone else coming from across the pond gets a lot more time to spend on Holiday.

With that in mind -- there's a huge difference between coming down for 7-10 days on Holiday than a decent chunk of DVC members that might come down for 4-6 days. Those that come for just a few days are more in the mindset of going commando and just using the room to sleep and take showers.

With that said -- now that I've been like 10 times in the last three years, I'm more likely to take my time and enjoy the resort -- but I'd be willing to guess that the average DVC owner doesn't have enough points to go multiple times a year -- so when they go, they are still going all out.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

One think that I would note is in your example you talk about weeks. I myself have not yet stayed at a DVC resort for exactly one week, and I am not sure I ever will. I would go on to venture a guess that most DVC stays are not 1 week.

A week stay is pretty common for us. Sometimes 6 nights. Sometimes 8 nights. If it's WDW then it's right at the week mark or just around it but that lowers if it's VGC since I don't have to devote the same travel time to get there as a west coaster. DVC stated they selected the window booking option of up to 7 nights because that was the length of stays taken by the majority of owners.

 

[mustinjourney]

We are a young family of 4. While I would absolutely love to be able to stay in a 1 or 2 BR, there is simply too much of a point gap between them and studios. Most of the year, 1 BR is basically double the point requirement as a studio. We travel every summer (spouse is a teacher), and the cost of being able to stay in a 1 BR for our 10 nights would be astronomical. So it comes down to basic economics. Travel from Canada for a 5 night stay in a 1 BR, or 10 nights in a studio. We'll make it work in a studio as long as we possibly can.

If they rejigged the point charts and made the premium for the 1 BR to be about 30% more points, I would probably add-on and book 1 BRs.

I agree.

With the way the point charts are arranged -- 1BRs make no sense. If you're going to book 1BRs -- you look and see that 2BRs doesn't cost a whole lot more -- so at that point -- you might as well just book the 2BRs.

What's interesting is that the CRO cash side prices 1BRs at about 60% more than a studio. Which I think is probably more in line with actual demand.

I'd be curious to know if the DVC point chart is based on costs while the CRO side is based on demand.

I know for us -- if we're considering doing a 1BR -- I'd rather spring for the extra 10 points a night and book the 2BR and then invite the GPs along (for free) and have them help out with the kids.

If you have older kids -- I could totally see getting a 2BR and having each kid invite another friend to enjoy the magic.

 

[mustinjourney]

Actually, If Disney sees demand go up for one type of room during a particular time of year, they will increase the amount of points required for that room during that time. But they also lower points on another room type, so there is no change to the total points required for the resort. This how they distribute demand.

they haven't done this yet -- otherwise, 1BRs would have gone down with an increase to studios.

also -- not to rehash the 2020 point chart fiasco, but there are a lot of valid points that points can only be reallocated across seasons for each room type, since the POS states that each "unit home" has to be the same throughout the whole year.

 

[bakerworld]

IMO the villas that are 'disappearing' quickly are the ones with the lower point totals. I haven't been about to touch a Value AK-J studio at 11-month and 2 days so I guess I should've walked it starting in August.

 

[jerseyduke]

A week stay is pretty common for us. Sometimes 6 nights. Sometimes 8 nights. If it's WDW then it's right at the week mark or just around it but that lowers if it's VGC since I don't have to devote the same travel time to get there as a west coaster. DVC stated they selected the window booking option of up to 7 nights because that was the length of stays taken by the majority of owners.

6 days is not a week, nor is 8 days. You said 'just around'.

I have no data, so its merely a guess, but 7 nights might be the single most common length of stay, but I doubt it is over 50% of them, meaning the majority of the stays are NOT a week.

Many Europeans take like 2 weeks, and most split stays are not a week. Long weekends

Either way, the point it, apply a "week" logic to DVC is not a good idea as a lot of stays are not a week long, whether it is just a large number or the majority.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

6 days is not a week, nor is 8 days. You said 'just around'.

I have no data, so its merely a guess, but 7 nights might be the single most common length of stay, but I doubt it is over 50% of them, meaning the majority of the stays are NOT a week.

Many Europeans take like 2 weeks, and most split stays are not a week. Long weekends

Either way, the point it, apply a "week" logic to DVC is not a good idea as a lot of stays are not a week long, whether it is just a large number or the majority.

Ok, not clear. 7 days is the usual.

But not always.

The data came directly from DVC. They chose a booking window of 7 days "because that was the most common length of stay". So contact them to argue it isn't.

Yes, I know there are other lengths of stay because this is a point systems and so allows for it.

 

[mustinjourney]

DVC stated they selected the window booking option of up to 7 nights because that was the length of stays taken by the majority of owners

I would imagine that "up to" 7 nights is in fact the vast majority of stays -- but that, by definition, includes any stays less than 7 days...so that doesn't mean that 7 days is the most common.

 

[jerseyduke]

I would imagine that "up to" 7 nights is in fact the vast majority of stays -- but that, by definition, includes any stays less than 7 days...so that doesn't mean that 7 days is the most common.

Exactly, but since I was the one saying that it must be wrong.
40% 7 days
10% 1 day
10% 2 day
10% 3 day
10% 4 day
10% 5 day
10% 6 day
7 is the most common, but also NOT the majority.

But everything I say is wrong

 

[_auroraborealis_]

IMO the villas that are 'disappearing' quickly are the ones with the lower point totals. I haven't been about to touch a Value AK-J studio at 11-month and 2 days so I guess I should've walked it starting in August.

Although it's important to note that AKV-Value is also an inventory issue that cannot be solved in any realistic fashion. When you have a low number of total units, and units that you cannot violently raise the point rate on with a straight face... it will work like that. And there is no claim that should be made with a straight face that Disney is obligated to level demand for them, given the inventory numbers.

 

[crvetter]

Although it's important to note that AKV-Value is also an inventory issue that cannot be solved in any realistic fashion. When you have a low number of total units, and units that you cannot violently raise the point rate on with a straight face... it will work like that. And there is no claim that should be made with a straight face that Disney is obligated to level demand for them, given the inventory numbers.

Yeah there is a limit of the Value studios being necessarily required to be priced less per night than the Standard Views (else the Value studios will be undesirable at parity with Standard). And considering the minimal difference in size and amenities if they are always priced less per night than the Standard Views they will always have a demand and inventory issue.

 

[crisi]

I think the tipping point was not the bungalows or five in a studio, but the "by 25 (and then 50) points direct to get perks" - a lot of people bought resale and then added on for perks, and a lot of them did so to get a studio once every three years at BCV for Food and Wine. Or a studio at BLT once every three years. Or some other "its a pain to get this reservation at seven months" room. Both the bungalows and five in a studio didn't help - but the bungalows aren't causing the studio issues in the Epcot area at eleven months.

 

[crvetter]

I think the tipping point was not the bungalows or five in a studio, but the "by 25 (and then 50) points direct to get perks" - a lot of people bought resale and then added on for perks, and a lot of them did so to get a studio once every three years at BCV for Food and Wine. Or a studio at BLT once every three years. Or some other "its a pain to get this reservation at seven months" room. Both the bungalows and five in a studio didn't help - but the bungalows aren't causing the studio issues in the Epcot area at eleven months.

This is very true. A huge issue is\was seasonal demand. Take Poly and CCV where the Bungalows and Cabins exist, during the summer studio availability lasts for longer periods at 11 months (actually CCV had some studio availability at 7 months for 2020 summer). However once Fall Frenzy hits availability starts to get sparse (CCV is more pronounced simply because it isn't all studios). The Cabins and Bungalows aren't likely stressing the 7 month trade in the Fall Frenzy simply because most resorts are already mostly booked solid in the studios and 2 bedrooms in the home resort period (for movement to be possible those rooms need openings, thus no movement no stress). If I had to guess those extra points from the Cabins and Bungalows get traded into the Disney Collection (when all else fails it's pretty much just getting a moderate room for the same points, which we know renting points costs about the price of a moderate room, so kind of is a wash cash wise if you have to go during that period of time) or Cruises (no matter how bad of a trade) or they get used in the summer where they do stress the 7 month trade. I would have to see how large the lockoff premium is across the entire DVC ecosystem. It is likely most lockoffs are split, thus that premium eats away at some of the bungalow and cabin points.

To be fair to CCV the cabins do disappear way more frequently than the bungalows (at least from tracking the RAT). And have had times of disappearing within the home resort period (especially October and December and some holidays). So there is definitely a market at a certain price. DVC just was too greedy with them.

 

[jerseyduke]

I think the tipping point was not the bungalows or five in a studio, but the "by 25 (and then 50) points direct to get perks" - a lot of people bought resale and then added on for perks, and a lot of them did so to get a studio once every three years at BCV for Food and Wine. Or a studio at BLT once every three years. Or some other "its a pain to get this reservation at seven months" room. Both the bungalows and five in a studio didn't help - but the bungalows aren't causing the studio issues in the Epcot area at eleven months.

5 in the studios was big. Prior to the VGF (Which I believe was the first to offer it), if you had 2 adults with 3 kids, you either had to get a 2 bed room, or split 2 studios - and in order to spit 2 studios you would either need to split up the adults, or the kids would have to be at an age where at least one of them was ok to stay in their own room, which wont happen if all 3 are less than 10.

In hindsight, it may have been better to up the 1 bedrooms to and leave the studios at 4 (if it were feasible) and help create more demand for 1 bedrooms, which do tend to be the slowest to get booked.

 

[Lumpy1106]

New to this so hard to say, but I don't think it helped that you CAN'T put 5 people in some of the 1BRs. I get it and I've budgeted for it - my family of 5 needs a bigger unit. I'm happy to spend more points to get into those units. Re configuring the studios for 5 just puts more demand on the studios. If you reconfigured the 1br's for 5 or even 6 and restricted the studios to 4, I would have no reason to book the studios.

 

[mustinjourney]

I think the tipping point was not the bungalows or five in a studio, but the "by 25 (and then 50) points direct to get perks" - a lot of people bought resale and then added on for perks, and a lot of them did so to get a studio once every three years at BCV for Food and Wine. Or a studio at BLT once every three years. Or some other "its a pain to get this reservation at seven months" room. Both the bungalows and five in a studio didn't help - but the bungalows aren't causing the studio issues in the Epcot area at eleven months.

it certainly didn’t help matters, but is bcv or BWV that much harder to get the last two years during F&W? I joined right At the beginning of that mess and those two were very hard to book back then. So I’m not sure much has changed.

What has increased is the walking of rooms the last year or so. But that was expected given that they allowed us to modify online.