The variables are going to be subjective.......how much risk are you willing to take - there will be a lot of members out points (and therefore value) over Covid - us included. Even prior to Covid, there was always risk -
DVC cancellation policies are far more restrictive than cash, Covid drove home how little control you have. The other variable is that DVC WILL change your behavior. You think you will save money, but DVC wasn't designed by Disney so that its customers would spend LESS with the Mouse. You'll find yourself deciding to add on a small contract you can use at WDW. You'll find studios are nice, but that one bedroom is so much nicer. You'll take friends. Without a room bill, you'll find yourself spending more on dinner, experiences or souvenirs. You'll think that Hilton Head or Aulani look like a place you really want to get to. I think many, perhaps most, of us admit that DVC hasn't REALLY saved us a dime. It has, however, allowed us to bring family and friends, put the kids in a different room so we could enjoy some adult vacation time, travel to our favorite place more often, etc. If saving money is the most important thing, don't buy....buy because you think DVC (and understand the restrictions of DVC and the differences between a cash room and DVC) fits your family and you'll get more value for the dollars you do spend.