$CAD...any predictions?

[deedubb]

Good to see the dollar on the rise. Is there anyone here in the industry who can make an educated guess as to where it is headed?

 

[FigmentSpark]

Not in the industry. I have the same questions and no crystal ball, but I've seen predictions of 80 cents by the end of 2019 and I've seen 70 cents by the end of 2019. Very frustrating. I expect our election will have some impact, although I don't know what.

For what it's worth (and if it's not all Greek to you, like it is to me), I found this forcast:

https://longforecast.com/canadian-dollar-forecast-2017-2018-2019-2020-2021-usd-cad

 

[ottawamom]

With that forecast I guess I will put off getting more US$ until some time in September.

 

[Mikamarii]

Not in the industry either but I read a report a week or so ago that the BOC was looking at cutting interest rates when they made their quarterly announcement last week but decided against it which has caused the dollar to rise and likely will continue to rise through the next couple months as the economy has been strong.
There's a likelihood that an interest rate cut could happen in octoberish which would then slow the loonie or cause it to drop. There are so many factors at play though.

We just agreed to the sale of our dvc contract with a buyer but can't close until January as we have a reservation booked. Kind of hoping for an increase over the next couple months then a sharp drop until about February /March haha.

 

[bankr63]

Good to see the dollar on the rise. Is there anyone here in the industry who can make an educated guess as to where it is headed?

I spent years in the industry. It could go up. It could go down. You pick. Most well-educated analysts are unable to accurately predict where it will go, and we are always just one tweet away from tanking again.

 

[youngdeb12]

Long-term forecasts are spotty at best. There are so many things that can happen that will affect the FX rate good and bad. If the US ends up cutting rates as they have been discussing, there could be a bit more weakness in the USD but a lot of that is currently priced in. Where the CAD is trading right now is higher than it's been over the past several months. 78.5 cents is a bit of a target I have in my mind but there are many things that could affect it going forward. Currently there is strength in the CAD but that could change if the US fed changes its mind about cutting rates in the short term and if we get some bad economic numbers out of Canada.

 

[deedubb]

we are always just one tweet away from tanking again.

So true. It's funny, because in the grand scheme of things, the amount I am going to save/lose if the dollar swings one way or the other by 2 or 3 cents is really minimal, yet I keep hemming and hawing, thinking that tomorrow might be better than today to spend. Mind games.

 

[badiggio]

^Agree.I'm the same way.

 

[Disneylovers2000]

I wonder what will happen after both of our elections in the fall! I bet that will have an effect on it as well!!

 

[scrappinginontario]

I used to spend a lot of time speculating and hoping to catch the dollar at the 'right' time until I realized that for every $1,000US I'm spending on a Disney trip, the exchange 'only' meant a $10 difference per $0.01 that our dollar changes. That's a few cups of coffee at Timmy's.

I was spending far too much time checking to see if it went up or down. Over the years when our dollar has gone from being on par to where it is right now, that's a HUGE difference. But, the little bit it goes up and down right now isn't worth me trying to catch it at just the right moment. It's just kinda bumping around and I'll have to pay the current rate and no longer stress about what it might or might not do.

 

[bankr63]

I used to spend a lot of time speculating and hoping to catch the dollar at the 'right' time until I realized that for every $1,000US I'm spending on a Disney trip, the exchange 'only' meant a $10 difference per $0.01 that our dollar changes. That's a few cups of coffee at Timmy's.

I was spending far too much time checking to see if it went up or down. Over the years when our dollar has gone from being on par to where it is right now, that's a HUGE difference. But, the little bit it goes up and down right now isn't worth me trying to catch it at just the right moment. It's just kinda bumping around and I'll have to pay the current rate and no longer stress about what it might or might not do.

And for folks like you, dollar cost averaging can be a very smart way to put away for your vacation. If you are a regular traveler to the US, try putting a set amount in C$ into a US$ account - say C$100-200 every payday. That way when the US$ is high you will buy a bit less, and when it is low you will buy a little bit more, but over time you will get a fairly good average rate. It's the easiest way to "time the market" without paying any attention to it.

 

[tinkerone]

I spent years in the industry. It could go up. It could go down. You pick. Most well-educated analysts are unable to accurately predict where it will go, and we are always just one tweet away from tanking again.

Retired from the industry and could not agree more. Nobody can predict what it will do, if they say they can then they are not paying attention. Our government, their government, BOC, elections, 45's tweets, China's economy, heck the world economy, it all has an influence and you would have to predict all of that to even start to figure if the dollar is going north or south.
Yes, you said it very well.