Break even / value calculator for DVC = per resort

[JPKnapp]

What has always been the Achilles heel of "is it worth it to buy DVC?" arguments is what the lost investment value if you invested the cash and paid cash along the way. You not only need to account for future dues and the corresponding dues increases, but you also need to account for the cost of cash stay and the increased costs of those. By taking into account the option to invest the money and earn interest vs pay for cash stays along the way, the below spreadsheet calculates on a per resort basis what the break even point would be for you.

Inputs include your average cost of cash stays, the number of trips per year, the interest rates on investments, the inflation rate of cash stay prices, points to buy, and dues increase predictions.

The yellow/amber cells are input cells. You can change those to suit your situation or if you think my original inputs could be improved. While my initial numbers are rooted in research for historical pricing increases and calculating the average increase over last 10 years, you can change if you see fit.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...dL9eoF7fwP9r65vb5ei1h2_AU/edit#gid=1984954368
Provide any feedback to make this better.

 

[Louis morrell]

Access denied

 

[JPKnapp]

Access denied

Fixed. Apologies there. Link updated above and here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...dL9eoF7fwP9r65vb5ei1h2_AU/edit#gid=1984954368

 

[Louis morrell]

With just a glance, WOW the difference in predicted cost diverges quickly as time goes by. That is if I am looking at this correctly.

And you sure put some time into that project.

 

[JPKnapp]

With just a glance, WOW the difference in predicted cost diverges quickly as time goes by. That is if I am looking at this correctly.

And you sure put some time into that project.

You are looking at it right. The year by year increase of cash stay costs are the real driver in that case. It not only out-paces dues increases, the dues are starting from a smaller initial number so the divergence becomes even more exponential over time. It's amazed me that Disney can increase their cash stay costs by up to 10-15% a year (my real numbers averaged out to 7.5% but I was conservative for future predictions @ 6.5%) and still have more people coming. Heck, it wasnt that long ago that a night at GF was $350 rack rate.

 

[Manifestbarn]

Thanks for creating the sheet. Question: where did you get the Price Per Point numbers? If I am reading the spreadsheet correctly, I see $90/point for Aulani, for example, which is definitely not correct, not even for resale.

The yellow/amber cells are input cells. You can change those to suit your situation or if you think my original inputs could be improved. While my initial numbers are rooted in research for historical pricing increases and calculating the average increase over last 10 years, you can change if you see fit.

 

[Renarr]

I didn't do anything nearly as formally as you had when deciding to look at DVC a year or two ago, but came up with some roughly comparable numbers for the break-even for the resorts we were considering. It's nice to get some independent confirmation of what my gut was telling me on it.

 

[JPKnapp]

Thanks for creating the sheet. Question: where did you get the Price Per Point numbers? If I am reading the spreadsheet correctly, I see $90/point for Aulani, for example, which is definitely not correct, not even for resale.

A cursory search of ROFR recently and eyeballing it. What jumped out to me for AUL was a fully loaded 100 point contract went for $82. But you are probably right the more common price is approaching $100. The beauty is being able to change that value to what you find your price per point would be especially since everyone looks at different point values and different vacation habits.

 

[starfrenzy]

Break even for me at AKL would be about 8-10 years according to your chart, which is just about what I calculated myself. Thanks for the time you put into this, and for sharing it with us.

 

[JPKnapp]

A few have asked for access to spreadsheet from within google sheets. I thought I had this set up the right way. Can someone verify they can see and also adjust the inputs (ex. change points to purchase)? Thanks all.

 

[mamaofsix]

I wonder if people are calculating hypothetical cash stays based on rack rates? It would seem much more accurate to calculate cash stays based on what people actually pay, which is often a 20-30 percent reduction on rack rate.

 

[mamaofsix]

A few have asked for access to spreadsheet from within google sheets. I thought I had this set up the right way. Can someone verify they can see and also adjust the inputs (ex. change points to purchase)? Thanks all.

I can't adjust the orange inputs, it says I need to request access in order to edit...

 

[ChimneyJim]

I can't adjust the orange inputs, it says I need to request access in order to edit...

Save a copy of it for your own edit. This step removes the lock

 

[CanadaDisney05]

Looks Great! Thanks

A couple of nit picky items.

A) In order to access the spreadsheet, just download a copy

B) I did notice one possible issue. The calculation in the investing chart at the bottom doesn't seem correct to me in 2020 (Cell F61 for SSR), which throws off all of the subsequent years. The calculation assumes that if you did not purchase DVC, you would take all of the money and invest it, but not take any vacation in 2020. Obviously, this is a case by case scenario, but I think (especially today since it's only the beginning of February) that you would need to withdraw some money in year 1 to pay for a vacation this year. If you purchased DVC, you would most likely take a vacation this year. I guess this is a bit of a case by case scenario.

C) A continuation of C. In 2021 (Cell G61 for SSR), your assuming that you do not see any growth on the 2021 MF (which are due in January), n'or are you reducing your growth by that year's cash withdrawal.

 

[vnovabri]

You should update the price at Riviera now too.

 

[mamaofsix]

What has always been the Achilles heel of "is it worth it to buy DVC?" arguments is what the lost investment value if you invested the cash and paid cash along the way. You not only need to account for future dues and the corresponding dues increases, but you also need to account for the cost of cash stay and the increased costs of those. By taking into account the option to invest the money and earn interest vs pay for cash stays along the way, the below spreadsheet calculates on a per resort basis what the break even point would be for you.

Inputs include your average cost of cash stays, the number of trips per year, the interest rates on investments, the inflation rate of cash stay prices, points to buy, and dues increase predictions.

The yellow/amber cells are input cells. You can change those to suit your situation or if you think my original inputs could be improved. While my initial numbers are rooted in research for historical pricing increases and calculating the average increase over last 10 years, you can change if you see fit.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...dL9eoF7fwP9r65vb5ei1h2_AU/edit#gid=1984954368
Provide any feedback to make this better.

Thank you so much for all of your hard work! I figured out how to download and save to change the numbers thanks to @ChimneyJim .

Your chart was very helpful in a different way than perhaps you intended as well.

I have been waffling on whether or not we should purchase DVC. We normally stay in a large pool home / villa off-site for about $200 / night, or $1400 / week. The rate of cost increases for this rental each year has been much lower than onsite Disney deluxe. About 4 % a year.

So, inputting my starting number at $1400.00 instead of $3000.00, and adjusting the rate of increase to 4.0% instead of 6.5%....

I'm left with a SURPLUS of money if I simply invest the cash for DVC and use if for offsite vacations instead. And it's quite a hefty surplus - my $18, 250 for AKV turns into $73,680 by 2056 in cash. Or the $29,446 for RIV turns into $222,798 by 2069!

Woah.

 

[CanadaDisney05]

Thank you so much for all of your hard work! I figured out how to download and save to change the numbers thanks to @ChimneyJim .

Your chart was very helpful in a different way than perhaps you intended as well.

I have been waffling on whether or not we should purchase DVC. We normally stay in a large pool home / villa off-site for about $200 / night, or $1400 / week. The rate of cost increases for this rental each year has been much lower than onsite Disney deluxe. About 4 % a year.

So, inputting my starting number at $1400.00 instead of $3000.00, and adjusting the rate of increase to 4.0% instead of 6.5%....

I'm left with a SURPLUS of money if I simply invest the cash for DVC and use if for offsite vacations instead. And it's quite a hefty surplus - my $18, 250 for AKV turns into $73,680 by 2056 in cash. Or the $29,446 for RIV turns into $222,798 by 2069!

Woah.

Definitely true. Just don't forget to adjust those numbers for inflation. That $73,680 in 2056 is actually $36k in 2020 dollars, or equivalent to $1k of 2020 dollars per year

 

[starfrenzy]

A few have asked for access to spreadsheet from within google sheets. I thought I had this set up the right way. Can someone verify they can see and also adjust the inputs (ex. change points to purchase)? Thanks all.

I saved a copy to my own Drive and then I was able to change the number of points I wanted to purchase.

 

[JPKnapp]

You should update the price at Riviera now too.

It all depends on the number of points someone is looking to buy. With the incentives out there, with 300 points, it is $188 per point. So the variable works in that case. Plus is someone is evaluating resale on Riviera, that price might be a bit lower.

 

[JPKnapp]

All - the sheet permissions have been updated and should work now for editing. I am hoping I have the right cells locked down.