Box Office Discussion

[rteetz]

I like Roeper but Rotten Tomatoes is giving Ghostbusters 75%. To me the movie looks horrible but who knows?

I don't think it looks horrible. I think it's not going to be as good as the original but not awful. So a 75% is kind of what I'm expecting. They have some great actresses in it.

 

[romitaz]

I don't think it looks horrible. I think it's not going to be as good as the original but not awful. So a 75% is kind of what I'm expecting. They have some great actresses in it.

It sounds like a perfect movie for me to wait for Redbox.

 

[TwoMisfits]

I like Roeper but Rotten Tomatoes is giving Ghostbusters 75%. To me the movie looks horrible but who knows?

Top critics are about 50% - they are probably more reliable this time (this is one of the only movies in awhile where the top critics and regular critics are apart by double digits)...

 

[OnSpaceshipEarth]

I believe Richard Roeper also gave a rave review for The Secret Life of Pets. I've seen that film and it was hardly anything to rave about.

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

I always enjoy these, and other might enjoy it too. BoxOfficeMojo always has an article every Thursday night about their prediction of the box office. Overall, they are pretty darn good with predictions. I would say their predictions are almost the standard, and when a movie does better then expected, it exceeds their prediction, and when a movie does worse than expected...well you get the idea.

They write the article on Thursday (usually comes out in the evening). On Friday morning they put in a Friday morning update to the same article with the Thursday preview numbers. I will say this, the Thursday preview numbers are typically a useless number to look at unless it is HUGE (like over 6 million big). But movies with big "cult" like followings tend to have huge Thursday Preview numbers, and huge Friday numbers but then die off very quickly (Batman vs Superman being a good example - had a monster Thursday preview and Friday numbers, but the Saturday and Sunday numbers didn't live up to the standards...on the opposite side, animated movies don't tend to have huge Thursday preview screening numbers but when they do it will be a hit -- Dory and Secret Life of Pets both had big Thursday preview numbers and went on monster weekend numbers. Typically an animated movie with a big Thursday would be considered ok for any other blockbuster -- this is cause kids don't tend to come out on Thursday nights (and don't get huge numbers on Friday nights compared to other blockbusters). For Ghostbusters...the Thursday numbers basically tell you nothing about the film. It isn't a big opening Thursday, but it isn't small either, so it could go either way. Some might predict that Ghostbusters will get a bit of a boast on Thursday/Friday from a following, but still too early to tell. It will be more the cast, if Saturday and Sunday are small, then they will say The Thursday ok numbers was cause of a following for the film, but if the Sat/Sun numbers end up semi-big then they will point to Thursday as an indicator of what what was to come. One thing is for sure from Thursday numbers, Ghostbusters will not be huge, and will need some help to hit its production budget domestically.

On Saturday morning (usually around 11 am) the site will do another update to the story with Friday numbers. This is a much better predictor of what is to come. Usually at this point they have a pretty good idea.

By Sunday morning (again around 11 am) they have the weekend estimates in. The numbers are always fairly accurate (which amazes me since Sunday tickets haven't even been bought yet), within 1 million for every film if not closer. For Sunday, they don't update the first article from Thursday, but create a new article as a wrap up.

It is fun to follow to me, but Thursday is the one I look forward to most, followed by the Sunday wrap up, and then seeing the Saturday morning update with Friday numbers.

Here is this week's Thursday article (that already has the Friday preview numbers in).

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4206&p=.htm

If anybody finds this interesting, I can try to keep posting them when they come up each week. Or maybe I am the only one that finds this interesting (or everybody has already found their way to the website).

At the bottom of the article, these are their final top 10 prediction box office numbers for this weekend:

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

• The Secret Life of Pets (4,382 theaters) - $54.3 M
• Ghostbusters (2016) (3,963 theaters) - $46 M
• Finding Dory (3,536 theaters) - $11.4 M
• The Legend of Tarzan (3,551 theaters) - $10.9 M
• Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates (3,008 theaters) - $7.5 M
• The Purge: Election Year (2,670 theaters) - $6.6 M
• Central Intelligence (2,381 theaters) - $4.3 M
• The Infiltrator (1,600 theaters) - $4.1 M
• The BFG (2,182 theaters) - $4.1 M
• Independence Day: Resurgence (2,290 theaters) - $3.9 M

 

[ChloesDaddy]

Dory is going to be a billion dollar film. Nemo made 936 million 13 years ago without China. It still has the UK, Japan, Germany and Korea among major markets. Plus another 100 million plus from China.

Films are a lot more front loaded then they use to be, even a couple years ago. With exhibitor contracts the way they are, studios want as many people to see a film, as quickly as possible to increase their take. Films just don't have the legs they use too. Dory is going to be at about a 3 times multiplier by the end of this weekend. Not sure I see enough to increase that much beyond 3.5. Having two family films plus some fanboy sequels coming out in the next 3 weeks is going to be a lot of domestic downward pressure on Dory.

I didn't realize there were major markets with such late release dates; should have looked. Still, it looks like European markets aren't lining up for Dory nearly as much as they did for Nemo. The take in France looks to finish up under $20MM vs. the $65MM Nemo took in. The UK may prove to be an exception based on results in Australia. Unless China has only seen a limited release to date with many more screens to come it won't get to $100MM there (maybe only ~$40MM). For whatever reason, China doesn't seem to warm up to Pixar flicks. Japan, South Korea and Mexico should provide a big boost, but it may still be a struggle to get to $1B worldwide. As for Domestic results, Dory took a big hit this week due mainly to the competition you noted, so I've probably overestimated at $495MM. Looks more likely to be $465-475MM, which will still leave it behind Nemo on an inflation-adjusted basis. I'm still surprised at how well it's done domestically. It was entertaining enough but lacked the charm and depth of Nemo.

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

I didn't realize there were major markets with such late release dates; should have looked. Still, it looks like European markets aren't lining up for Dory nearly as much as they did for Nemo. The take in France looks to finish up under $20MM vs. the $65MM Nemo took in. The UK may prove to be an exception based on results in Australia. Unless China has only seen a limited release to date with many more screens to come it won't get to $100MM there (maybe only ~$40MM). For whatever reason, China doesn't seem to warm up to Pixar flicks. Japan, South Korea and Mexico should provide a big boost, but it may still be a struggle to get to $1B worldwide. As for Domestic results, Dory took a big hit this week due mainly to the competition you noted, so I've probably overestimated at $495MM. Looks more likely to be $465-475MM, which will still leave it behind Nemo on an inflation-adjusted basis. I'm still surprised at how well it's done domestically. It was entertaining enough but lacked the charm and depth of Nemo.

It is still looking it might get to $500M domestically. Even with the dip from Pets, it is still on pace to do it. It won't have as big of a dip any more from any movies, so it is easy to compare to other big animation movies. It is still making as much as most big animated movies at this point, and those movies still made the amount needed to get over $500M (some made over $100M from this point forward, Despicable Me 2 being an exception). After this weekend it will almost be at $450 million, if it does it will be the 5th fastest film to ever do it, and even if it doesn't it will be the 6th fastest film in the worst case scenario. In fact, it is catching up to the Dark Knight, which did break $500m. Even if it dropped 50% each week (which it won't. Zootopia always dropped less than 40%, and while it will have its biggest drop this week, it shouldn't have a drop of more than 40% for a long time), it will be over 480m in 4 weeks, or if it drops more consistent with other animated films it will be between 485m to 490m after 4 weeks.

Internationally, it may be doing worse in some, but it is also doing better in others. Overall it is pretty consistent with other big hits at this point. Plus, it will make over $150 million more domestically than Nemo and Zootopia, which means even if it does bad in some markets, it makes up for it domestically. But as I said, it isn't doing bad in all markets. From my research it is split, 1/3 it hasn't opened in, 1/3 it's already beating comparable animated movies, and 1/3 it still has work to do (and some of those it will beat). All this together, well in my opinion will be inmaterial. As it will easily break $1B.

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

Here is today's article recapping the box office from the weekend:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4207&p=.htm

Quick wrap up - pets beats ghostbusters, and dory now the #1 animated movie all time and will become 8th movie all time to break 450 million probably on Tuesday. Tarzan has a pretty good weekend as well, might end up 3rd ahead of dory deepening final numbers. 5 straight weeks with an animated movie number 1. I think some of these figure releases for older crowds may benefit in the coming weeks as people look for something to fill the summer blockbuster label for them.

 

[rteetz]

Here is today's article recapping the box office from the weekend:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4207&p=.htm

Quick wrap up - pets beats ghostbusters, and dory now the #1 animated movie all time and will become 8th movie all time to break 450 million probably on Tuesday. Tarzan has a pretty good weekend as well, might end up 3rd ahead of dory deepening final numbers. 5 straight weeks with an animated movie number 1. I think some of these figure releases for older crowds may benefit in the coming weeks as people look for something to fill the summer blockbuster label for them.

Where's the finding dory ride being fast tracked in Epcot?

 

[Planogirl]

Where's the finding dory ride being fast tracked in Epcot?

And which country should it be placed in?

 

[OnSpaceshipEarth]

It looks like Finding Dory is Disney's one bright spot in a summer of flops(Alice, BFG). I have a feeling Pete's Dragon may flop as well.

It must be galling to Disneythat Universal produced a runaway hit(Secret Life of Pets) at 1/3 the cost of Dory and producing essentially the same box-office.

 

[Lesverts]

Alice should have never been made. And I think the BFG's biggest problem was release date. It should have been a late fall/Thanksgiving release.

 

[Liljo22]

It looks like Finding Dory is Disney's one bright spot in a summer of flops(Alice, BFG). I have a feeling Pete's Dragon may flop as well.

It must be galling to Disneythat Universal produced a runaway hit(Secret Life of Pets) at 1/3 the cost of Dory and producing essentially the same box-office.

The advertising expense for Universal on this is astronomical. They have been heavily advertising this film for over a year now including several spots during the Super Bowl and the NBA finals. I would put total advertising on this film over $100 million easily.

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

The advertising expense for Universal on this is astronomical. They have been heavily advertising this film for over a year now including several spots during the Super Bowl and the NBA finals. I would put total advertising on this film over $100 million easily.

Dory is estimated to make around 130-140 million more than Pets. So not sure why disney would care about success of pets. Also for the on that said summer has been bad for Disney besides dory - captain America is considered a summer movie as well. Zootopia and jungle book has made a good amount of money is the summer as well. Disney is destroying every studio this year and SUMMER. Disney is not worried about universals movies right now. They are the hottest ticket right now. Besides Alice and BFG still making them money due to interbational sales. Alice 2 bit as popular as first but still making money internationally and not done

 

[mikepizzo]

Alice should have never been made. And I think the BFG's biggest problem was release date. It should have been a late fall/Thanksgiving release.

I'm sure it didn't help that it seemed like the movie had zero marketing.

Fiancee holds a special place for the book. She read it when she was a kid and it really spoke to her, etc. etc. We were at the 2015 D23 Expo and she was so excited when it was announced. Fast forward to late June, 2017, on a whim she did a google search and realized it was being released in July. Neither one of us saw any kind of marketing for it.

Not sure whey this was released in the Summer either...I definitely think it would have done better in the fall.

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

I'm sure it didn't help that it seemed like the movie had zero marketing.

Fiancee holds a special place for the book. She read it when she was a kid and it really spoke to her, etc. etc. We were at the 2015 D23 Expo and she was so excited when it was announced. Fast forward to late June, 2017, on a whim she did a google search and realized it was being released in July. Neither one of us saw any kind of marketing for it.

Not sure whey this was released in the Summer either...I definitely think it would have done better in the fall.

I don't think Disney is as concerned as you all think about BFG and the release date. I think like the good dinosaur it will have a strong DVD/Bluray sales and that will be at Christmas time. Disney was ready for the contract with Stephen Spielberg to end. The movie was marketed, just depended what you watched. I saw a ton of commercials for it on some networks and not on others. But they are more focused on their other movies IMO. September and October are bad box office months and then their schedule is loaded in November and December. This was the only chance BFG had. But it was never going to be a hit in the box office. Releasing it in the fall would only have hurt box office and destroyed DVD and bluray potential sales for holidays. With Pixar, marvel, Lucas films and their animated films it didn't leave much room for this one. It will make money after everything, people will call if a flop that don't understand the entire pictures and Disney won't care. They are still the standard this year for movies and a schedule for the next 3-5 years that will make it hard to knock off it's podium

 

[Maineiak]

Where's the finding dory ride being fast tracked in Epcot?

Rookie...here's the new ride overlay. Fast, simple, cheap. Maybe I should be sending my resume directly to Mr. Iger and WDI!?!?!?!

 

[Goofy2015]

Rookie...here's the new ride overlay. Fast, simple, cheap. Maybe I should be sending my resume directly to Mr. Iger and WDI!?!?!?!

View attachment 182538

The Seas With Nemo & Friends : Under New Management with Dory

 

[Lesverts]

I don't think Disney is as concerned as you all think about BFG and the release date. I think like the good dinosaur it will have a strong DVD/Bluray sales and that will be at Christmas time. Disney was ready for the contract with Stephen Spielberg to end. The movie was marketed, just depended what you watched. I saw a ton of commercials for it on some networks and not on others. But they are more focused on their other movies IMO. September and October are bad box office months and then their schedule is loaded in November and December. This was the only chance BFG had. But it was never going to be a hit in the box office. Releasing it in the fall would only have hurt box office and destroyed DVD and bluray potential sales for holidays. With Pixar, marvel, Lucas films and their animated films it didn't leave much room for this one. It will make money after everything, people will call if a flop that don't understand the entire pictures and Disney won't care. They are still the standard this year for movies and a schedule for the next 3-5 years that will make it hard to knock off it's podium

The BFG has made 64 million on a reported 140 million budget. It needs to make probably 350 million worldwide to break even. So no it is not going to back money, it is going to be a massive write-down for Disney.

To put into perspective. John Carter made 284 million on a 250 million budget. That was a 200 million dollar write-down for Disney.

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

This weekends preview and estimates for the box office:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4208&p=.htm

Dory also passed 450 million this week, 6th fastest film to ever do so. It is likely to go into top 5 worldwide for movies in 2016 after this weekend

Animated movies will finally lose the top spot this weekend to Star Trek. Good run for animated movies.