Bob Iger top candidate to take over Disney

[crazy4wdw]

Scroll down to bottom of this article for the info. on Iger
JOBS REPORT COULD BE BAD NEWS FOR STOCK INVESTORS

BY JOHN CRUDELE, New York Post

January 6, 2005 -- TOMORROW'S em ployment report could be very tricky for the financial markets because it's setting up to be one of those lose/lose situations.
As this column has been saying for a long time, the monthly employment figures being reported by Washington have mainly been driven by guesses that the Labor Department makes about jobs being created by newly-formed companies.

Wall Street — in its typically optimistic fashion — is expecting significant December job growth of between 160,000 and 175,000.

But the Labor Department makes only modest additions to its employment numbers in December for these new companies.

In December of 2003 the Labor Department added 62,000 jobs for these new companies that it thinks — but can't prove — came into existence during the month.

These assumptions change from one year to the next, but have always been in the same ballpark. So for Wall Street to be correct, Friday's significant growth will have to come from the actual tabulation of jobs and not just assumptions. But here's why the situation is really fraught with risk.

If the figure comes in well below an expected range of 160,000-175,000, investors will again start worrying about the health of the economy and — more importantly — how policymakers will try and correct the problems.
But if the jobs figure is strong, Wall Street could then switch to worrying about how much more the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to slow the economy. That's the fear that sent the market lower on Tuesday.

A well-placed source on the West Coast tells me that Bob Iger is now the top candidate to take over leadership of Disney.

Iger is currently second to only Michael Eisner, Disney's chief executive. Eisner has said he will retire although the timeframe remains squishy.

And Wall Street has been speculating for months — too much gossip, if you ask me — as to who will be his replacement.

Well, insiders are now getting the feeling that Disney is going to look no further than Iger. And that's mainly because Eisner, attached as he is to Disney, figures he'll continue to have some sort of role if his protégé is in charge.
jcrudele@nypost.com

 

[DVCconvert]

My first reaction to this can be summarized by this:

 

[Peter Pirate]

Disney has no reason to look further than Iger. What is currently wrong with Disney?

Sure there are plenty of Eisner detractors, but what is wrong with Disney? Are the Parks struggling? Are the Resorts struggling? Is feature film struggling? Is animation struggling (careful now, that last one is loaded)?

Disney would be moronic to go outside the Company to fix problems they don't really have. If they wanted to do that they should have just sold out to Comcast and be done with it. Iger has paid his dues. He isn't Eisner (he's not a micromanager and he favors decentralization). He knows the Company and is the right guy to get the nod.

 

[crusader]

I agree Pirate.

For the past several years this company has been improving in the right direction. Heck even ABC is on top right now - so it doesn't surprise me that a handoff to Iger is favored internally. And it's tough to argue against his candidacy given the current situation which he worked to achieve.

The main area which remains in dire need of resuscitation with Disney is animated feature film production in house. This is one area I do believe they'll rebuild successfully with or without Pixar.

So it'll be very interesting to see where the second half of this decade leads. (That new ticket pricing strategy certainly got my attention - very impressive and perfect for that leisure crowd which I habitually accomodate)

 

[wtg2000]

I think it'll be a shame if Iger takes over and Eisner remains essentially in control. The company needs new blood. Animation is dying, their feature films are hit and miss, their last few new theme parks have been underwhelming, ABC has floundering for years (although it has a couple hit shows at the moment), they ran the Disney Stores into the ground. There are lots of talented people out there. Unfortunately, I don't think Eisner wants any of them because they might show him up! The board is obligated to their shareholders to find the best person possible and I don't think anybody thinks that's Iger. Even Eisner. He just sees Iger as someone he can control.

 

[Cobra B.]

On New Years Day Fox News had an all morning business and stock forecast for the year. If anyone caught any of it you will know what I mean. One of the commentators said that by April Disney will put in a bid to purchase Pixar and part of the deal will be that Jobs becomes the head of the joint company. I found it interesting that the rest of panel kinda questioned his thinking and he stood his ground by saying that he had gotten word inside that it was all but done already??? I only wish I had gotten the analysts' name.

 

[gapere]

On New Years Day Fox News had an all morning business and stock forecast for the year. If anyone caught any of it you will know what I mean. One of the commentators said that by April Disney will put in a bid to purchase Pixar and part of the deal will be that Jobs becomes the head of the joint company. I found it interesting that the rest of panel kinda questioned his thinking and he stood his ground by saying that he had gotten word inside that it was all but done already??? I only wish I had gotten the analysts' name.

Man I wish this comes true. Animation has always been the creative force in the company and who could be better than Jobs? Heck, WDW might as well be called Pixarworld with all the character tie-ins at the park.

 

[raidermatt]

Disney has no reason to look further than Iger. What is currently wrong with Disney?

Depends on what you expect out of Disney.

 

[Planogirl]

If Jobs would really take over, I would have hope again that animation and so on can rebound. As it is now, I believe that Disney is feeding off its past accomplishments for the most part and I don't expect too much else.

 

[dpic]

Disney has no reason to look further than Iger. What is currently wrong with Disney?

Sure there are plenty of Eisner detractors, but what is wrong with Disney? Are the Parks struggling? Are the Resorts struggling? Is feature film struggling? Is animation struggling (careful now, that last one is loaded)?

Disney would be moronic to go outside the Company to fix problems they don't really have.

This is all very true, Peter Pirate. Yet, it makes me think about the statue of Walt Disney holding hands with Mickey Mouse. Can you picture Eisner in this shot? Walt Disney had a vision, and it was not centered around merely making money. Like the statue, business and dreams went hand in hand.

What makes Disney unique is not hotel rooms, amusment rides, or movies; many companies are in that business. Disney sells fantasy and dreams, and you can't do that on the cheap. Now-a-days, the thought process is "lets make money." When Walt and Roy were around, it was "Lets make dreams, and if we do it right--with quality and vision--it will make money, too"

That's what's wrong with Disney.

 

[raidermatt]

Just wanted to say thanks, Dan, for saying again what so many of us have been trying to get across for so long. I've chosen to save this particular wall from the wrath of my head, but its good to see others still holding out.

 

[mrsR123]

Jobs still believes heartily, it seems, in innovation, although at this point in time, I'd settle for a dose of "I'll stick it to Eisner and be successful at actual quality just to spite him," which I think Jobs has in him as well.

 

[Peter Pirate]

Gee, still think I don't understand your view Matt?

Dan, good post and I agree philosphically. I just don't believe there's a frozen animators chance in hell that this type of return can ever be acheived by a company of this size and breadth in the marketplace we now live in.

But to be clear, I would love for a new Walt to somehow take the helm. A guy with vision and artistic talent. A guy who could woo the Street and investors while taking chances with dreams, never backing down on quality and making "show" more important that profit...I'm all for it. I hope it happens. I just think there is no chance that it will.

 

[raidermatt]

Gee, still think I don't understand your view Matt?

Not really. Oh sure, you get it literally. But not the spirit. If you did, you wouldn't point to short term financial results and ask why Disney should look anywhere but Iger.

Certainly, you wouldn't ask "What is wrong with Disney?"

I just don't believe there's a frozen animators chance in hell that this type of return can ever be acheived by a company of this size and breadth in the marketplace we now live in.

Of course it can be acheived. But only if the right people are in charge, and that hasn't been the case for a long time now. I haven't seen anything to indicate Iger is really the right people either, at least not for what Disney is/was about.

He might be better than Eisner, but I think Disney should be looking for the best, not just better.

I would love for a new Walt to somehow take the helm. A guy with vision and artistic talent. A guy who could woo the Street and investors while taking chances with dreams, never backing down on quality and making "show" more important that profit...I'm all for it. I hope it happens. I just think there is no chance that it will.

If everybody settles for less, of course it won't happen. The way you state things, it does seem impossible. But it's not about asking that "show" be more important than profit. Its about believing that greater profit will result from "show", and then putting people in place who can make that happen

Yes, there still are folks out there who get that, and who have the talent to make it work. Given the unusually long length of time the board said it would take to search for a new CEO, one would think they could find one of these people.

I just think there is no chance that it will.

And if you are right, THAT is what is wrong with Disney.

 

[Peter Pirate]

I am right, and it not just what's wrong with Disney...It's what wrong with our entire culture, IMO.

 

[raidermatt]

You're right that the problem is widespread, but as with any rule, there are exceptions. Again, the key is finding the right people.

If there really is no chance, it is only because there aren't enough people demanding it. All that I know for sure is which side I will be counted on. If it happens, we'll all be in for a treat. If it doesn't, life goes on. Those "right people" will do their good work, they'll just do it somewhere else. We as customers will continue to make our purchase decisions as we always have, and in the long run, Disney will be the poorer for it (relatively speaking, of course).

 

[Peter Pirate]

Is the current California 'gang' considered the "right people" in your book?

 

[raidermatt]

I knew that question was coming in some for or another (Who ARE the right people?).

Honestly, I don't know for sure. If I did...

All that I can say for sure about the CA gang is that they are better than the previous gang.

They've made some changes, but much of what they have done was predicted to happen even under the old regime. Even Eisner understands that if you are going to have a 50th birthday celebration, you'd better spruce the place up. One of the questions is are those changes permanent? And are they also fixing the behind the scenes things we can't see? As an example, the previous regime let the carousel rot to the point that when it closed for routine maintenance, they found they had to basically rebuild the entire structure. Will the current regime prevent things like that, or are they merely slapping paint over it?

We simply won't know that until after the 50th celebration is over.

Beyond those basic things that we shouldn't even have to be talking about, are they really prepared to put "their" money where their mouth is? We know they have a much better understanding of what Disney is supposed to be about than the previous regime, but are they willing AND able to put it into practice in all areas? The 50th, especially here in CA, is still largely just a title that can be put on a marketing campaign. One could argue that the current guys came on too late in the game to change that. But its also possible that they simply chose not to, or that they lack the power/ability to make such changes.

Note that I'm not necessarily coming down on that group. Just noting that the jury is still out.