Blue Card decision for Poly, Copper Creek, or VDH?

[DonkeyHoTay]

The BLT lounge was shut down for years, and could be shut down tomorrow. Blue Card benefits aren't in the deeds, which is why they have already taken them from White Card.

To me, resale is much less risk. I paid much less, and I own SSR points that are worth roughly what I paid for them years ago. A direct contract is historically is underwater for years, maybe always underwater at current pricing. Direct Poly in particular, is so expensive and has fewer years left. This is a tough mathematical lift for a booking that can be done with any points.

Risk is a big word and it means different things to everybody. I respect your view on the value of resale contracts over time. My comments were directed at the risk of losing Direct benefits, but which direct benefits that matter is a question each person will answer differently.

To me, the direct benefits that matter most are use at new resorts and the ability to bequest the contracts to my heirs in the simplest form possible (i.e. excluding a trust model). Those benefits are not likely to change according to my crystal ball.

 

[Makai]

OP. Buying just one Sorcerer pass per year will take many years to regain the differences. Discounts from restaurants (over your VISA) will be hard to justify.

I am also currently looking to buy direct points for the perks. But we are looking to buy 4 annual passes per year.

From reading your background, seems like it will make more sense in buying more resale points to accomadate your family. I didn't see when you normally go, but take a look at what's available during that time. Perhaps SAP points is all you need.

I typically go twice a year to WDW with kids and siblings for Disney races or pre-cruise trips (sometimes more), and we plan to do Hilton Head a couple times a year.

Edit to add: I anticipate Vero Beach will become a family favorite too with my love of sea turtles. Haven’t had a chance to visit yet!

 

[RoseGold]

Some of it is FOMO on the future perks, but mainly the unrestricted points.

To me, the FOMO should justify waiting for future resorts if you really want unrestricted points. DVC is going the wrong direction in point holdings. It is still holding millions of points from AUL and RIV and it keeps building and converting millions more. DVC was at 1.7M sales for 2025 as of November, which does not match their pace of construction. Poly Tower alone was 3.6M points. This trend is going the overall wrong direction unless sales pick up, which means DVC might do something to make direct more appealing -- perks, cut RIV price, something.

Direct is not going anywhere when Disney is still holding this many bags.

 

[airjay75]

If you are looking for a 2050+ timeframe with unrestricted points, I would buy direct at a future resort that meets your needs and has the full contract term. I would not be rushed into Poly or CCV with so little time left and bad room fit.

I think this is a fair point, but waiting is not without risk either. The only new resort on the horizon is LSL. It will presumably have an expiration date around 2076 or 2077, so 8-11 more years than PVB/CCV. Purchase price will most certainly be higher than buying PVB today (and CCV, at least during this current flash sale). Dues could be higher too (especially if they combine with LSL). Minimum points purchase to get direct benefits could also go up. Points chart may not be to one's liking. I would expect resale LSL pricing to resemble RIV resale pricing - that is, there is going to be a pretty big "drive off the lot" depreciation hit. PVB/CCV will likely retain their resale value longer given the ability to exchange into the O14 resorts. Not saying that any of that argues in favor of buying direct now, but there are risk factors to waiting too.

 

[Makai]

If you are looking for a 2050+ timeframe with unrestricted points, I would buy direct at a future resort that meets your needs and has the full contract term. I would not be rushed into Poly or CCV with so little time left and bad room fit.

Actually the room fit at Poly is the better option for giving us more bathrooms, and beds for our large family. It is just the high point chart there, which will mean doing split stays (which I love anyway). I will likely add on more unrestricted points in the future, but at least want to lock in at the 150 entry mark before they raise that too. I am looking at Poly for more the location value, resale value, and low annual dues.

 

[Brian Noble]

I am a hybrid owner, roughly 50/50 resale and developer. My resale points are resort-restricted.

There are very few situations in which one can justify a direct purchase on dollars-and-cents terms. I can tell you that there is no way I will ever recover the difference in cost by value of perks. So, why did I do it? I figured I was going to spend at least mid-five-figures on a DVC ownership that would cover my expected trips to WDW. If I am spending that much, there is no reason to buy the thing I almost want instead of the thing I actually want. And, becuase I had the cash on hand (thanks to some savings plus the proceeds of downsizing my house) it was a thing I could buy as a the divorce is final gift* to myself.

So, if what you want is to have direct benefits and future-proofed points, and you have the cash on hand to buy them, then just buy them. Money is for spending**. If among the currently available resorts you have a strong preference--for whatever reason--then that's the one to buy. You don't need us to justify your preferences for you to feel good about it. Just do it.

-------
*: It was that or a Mustang convertible, and that's too cliche even for me.

**: One big caveat: If you have to finance the purchase for any non-trivial amount of interest, that's a different thing entirely. For me, money is for spending only if it is my money, not the bank's.

DVC was at 1.7M sales for 2025 as of November, which does not match their pace of construction.

That sounds a lot more grim than I think the data justifies.

Since very late 2019, DVC has opened three resorts: RIV, GFV-2, and PIT. The next resort (Lakeshore) is going to open in early 2027. So, those three buildings all consume about six years worth of sales time: 2020-2026, inclusive.

The points in RIV + PIT are about 6.8M (RIV) and 3.6M (PIT), or a total of 10.4M. If you scale that 1.7M through December, you get roughly 1.85M/year. Over six years, that comes to 11.1M. GFV-2 was 1.8M, but it was also a very cheap flip, so the "construction pace" is somewhere between 10.4M (ignoring GFV) and 12.2M (if you count it as stick-built.) My guess is that the Disney accountants probably value it somewhere in the middle---and at 50% that puts it almost smack dab equal to the current pace.

In other words, I don't think they are that far off in their pace of construction vs. pace of sales. It looks close enough to me. And the evidence is that Disney's financial people believe that as well, else they would have kept Lakeshore on the back burner a little bit longer. I can't think of a reason why they had to re-start construction when they did, which suggests to me that it was a very intentional decision.

 

[RoseGold]

Pricing for Poly will stay roughly the same for a long time, a few hundred dollars is not a meaningful swing in this discussion. They are sitting on plenty of Poly. Since you aren't in a hurry, I would at least wait for the next announcement. If it is something like Yacht Club flip or BW2, you might have real FOMO.

And the new announcement sometimes goes with discounts on old stuff.

Edit to add: Contemporary Garden wing should be in this consideration as well. Something is going to be announced with that, and it could be DVC.

For a timeframe this long, you have to think an announcement that would really FOMO you.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Pricing for Poly will stay roughly the same for a long time, a few hundred dollars is not a meaningful swing in this discussion. They are sitting on plenty of Poly. Since you aren't in a hurry, I would at least wait for the next announcement. If it is something like Yacht Club flip or BW2, you might have real FOMO.

And the new announcement sometimes goes with discounts on old stuff.

Edit to add: Contemporary Garden wing should be in this consideration as well. Something is going to be announced with that, and it could be DVC.

For a timeframe this long, you have to think an announcement that would really FOMO you.

For those who are new, my recollection is that @RoseGold has been very pessimistic about buying DVC at all (direct or resale) the entire time I have been on this board.

That doesn’t mean the points aren’t valid, it’s just worth noting.

 

[RoseGold]

For those who are new, my recollection is that @RoseGold has been very pessimistic about buying DVC at all (direct or resale) the entire time I have been on this board.

I own multiple contracts at multiple resorts and actually suggested only options of buying to OP. This is a complicated product which I do not believe anyone should rush to buy without considering the options -- and DVC has many. It is also not going anywhere, and all of these choices will be available for quite some time.

There are situations where I don't think people should buy at all, like buying with a not-married partner or maybe international is very complicated now, or people who want to use the points on cruises, or I can keep going... Obviously DVC is not for everyone. Is that pessimistic?

 

[Brian Noble]

We probably need a few people to be the Loyal Opposition, as the rest of us are almost but not quite a Pluribus hive.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I own multiple contracts at multiple resorts and actually suggested only options of buying to OP. This is a complicated product which I do not believe anyone should rush to buy without considering the options -- and DVC has many. It is also not going anywhere, and all of these choices will be available for quite some time.

There are situations where I don't think people should buy at all, like buying with a not-married partner or maybe international is very complicated now, or people who want to use the points on cruises, or I can keep going... Obviously DVC is not for everyone. Is that pessimistic?

I’m not sure why you seem defensive. I was just stating a point of fact. It was not intended to be a negative comment in any way.

Some people are very anti-direct, so people are anti-resale, some people are “buying resale at restricted resorts doesn’t matter”, some people are “you should just rent at today’s prices and with walking”, some people are “SAP/most economical”, some people are “buy where you want to stay”, etc.

 

[Patmcpsu]

The BLT lounge was shut down for years, and could be shut down tomorrow. Blue Card benefits aren't in the deeds, which is why they have already taken them from White Card.

To me, resale is much less risk. I paid much less, and I own SSR points that are worth roughly what I paid for them years ago. A direct contract is historically is underwater for years, maybe always underwater at current pricing. Direct Poly in particular, is so expensive and has fewer years left. This is a tough mathematical lift for a booking that can be done with any points.

The only real "risk" is future resale values, which direct and resale purchases have the exact same exposure to. The initial value hit when buying new is not a risk; it's a known.

Member benefits is more "market manipulation" than a risk. And it's a safe bet that Disney will only manipulate in favor of buying direct.

 

[bakerworld]

We've only bought direct just because it's easier and we're into easy. Perks come and go - mostly go. When we can take advantage of a perk we make it a priority because of the perk inconsistency. Annual dues/maintenance costs even out, believe it or not. Of the 3 Homes we have we only consistently liked one over the last 17 years. We still use all the points every year - haven't lost a point yet. LOL. We stay where ever we've a mind to that I can find availability. I don't get lost in math. The Home we selected based on Dues has consistently been higher percentage increases than expected. The Home we selected based on points are rarely villas we can take advantage.

 

[Makai]

I feel much better now to go with Poly at 150 for the Blue Card unrestricted points, and likely some direct with Aulani if a deep discount happens, & resale with Boulder Ridge or direct after 2042 if they keep the same charm and quality in those rooms (if they offer a new contract). I appreciate all the analysis and wisdom here while I weighed these options. Now I just countdown until the next round of incentives are announced!

 

[Sandisw]

The BLT lounge was shut down for years, and could be shut down tomorrow. Blue Card benefits aren't in the deeds, which is why they have already taken them from White Card.

To me, resale is much less risk. I paid much less, and I own SSR points that are worth roughly what I paid for them years ago. A direct contract is historically is underwater for years, maybe always underwater at current pricing. Direct Poly in particular, is so expensive and has fewer years left. This is a tough mathematical lift for a booking that can be done with any points.

Both the BLT lounge and the stop of APs were related to the pandemic.

And, BLT was not shut down for years. It was shut down for maybe a year while they revamped it?

ETA: it did take 2 years to reopen after the pandemic.

Yes, Disney decided to no longer offer a discount off the Incredi pass, but that went awa for FL residents too…it was not DVC related.

I agree that no one should buy because of membership extras…those can be removed at any time.

But, DVD has a motive to keep them in play when the can and if anything, the past few years have done more to make them seem more valuable.

The use of points though is the big benefit for direct points IMO…

Resale saves you money but you give up things. Only an individual can decide if it’s worth it.

And, to be fair, some don’t consider the resale value to be a major part of the equation because it’s about use and no one can predict what that value will be in the future.

 

[Sandisw]

I think, by far, the biggest benefit of direct points is the ability to use them at RIV/VDH/CFW/LSL and beyond. The other benefits are all nice, and I think one can reasonably predict that the trend line of making direct more attractive compared to resale will continue, but those are probably not reasons in and of itself to buy direct points. Well, other than PVB - 150 points there to get direct benefits if you need/want Poly points given the spread between direct and resale makes total sense to me. If I were in the market for PVB points and did not already have blue card benefits, I'd say run, don't walk, to buy those points - well, maybe wait until right before your UY starts and take maximum advantage of magical beginnings.

This is why it’s important for those considering to understand the difference between membership extras…blue card…and where points can trade ..not related to membership extras or blue card in anyway.

Direct points are good everywhere and they always will be unless DVD develops a new resort that doesn’t trade with the other DVc resorts via BVTC.

It doesn’t matter what else you own or whether you are elgible for membership extras,.;DVC Y.

You can buy 25 points today direct and those 25 points trade anywhere,,.but won’t get you the extras.

Membership extras are incidental benefits and can be taken away at anytime.

They are not covered by dues and must be a voluntary program. Meaning, owners can’t be forced into paying for them.

The discounts, lounges, Sorcerer Pass. Special events, etc all fall under this.

Many of those are negotiated with other divisions and so DVD doesn’t have complete say in being able to offer…hence why DVC owners could not get the AP for that year…parks and resort controls those and they were selling to no one.

What I do think is that resale bought today ensures you are locked out of both membership extras and using points anywhere but O14.

Direct points get you unrestricted access to all DVC resorts and if you have at least 150, you also are eligible for the membership extras program.

 

[juliebee]

Holding direct points in a family trust is even more confusing, because Disney gets to decide who (if anyone? everyone? one person?) gets the Blue Card from the trust or some other form of ownership that uses intermediary structure (like an LLC).

The benefits are given to the people listed as the Trustee(s). There is no confusion on that.

 

[eticketplease]

In other words, I don't think they are that far off in their pace of construction vs. pace of sales. It looks close enough to me. And the evidence is that Disney's financial people believe that as well, else they would have kept Lakeshore on the back burner a little bit longer. I can't think of a reason why they had to re-start construction when they did, which suggests to me that it was a very intentional decision.

I wonder if part of it was the permits as they were able to extensions do to the pandemic.
I'm not sure how much of a problem or cost it would be in getting new permits would be but just throwing that out there.

 

[DonkeyHoTay]

Some people are very anti-direct, so people are anti-resale, some people are “buying resale at restricted resorts doesn’t matter”, some people are “you should just rent at today’s prices and with walking”, some people are “SAP/most economical”, some people are “buy where you want to stay”, etc.

I could rationalize each one of these viewpoints and advocate them all even when they contradict! I like these forums because everyone's perspective can vary so much by their use case. That's why these "what do you think I should do" threads are interesting to me - so many viewpoints to evaluate DVC decisions, and I usually read something I never knew or considered before!

 

[DonkeyHoTay]

I agree that no one should buy because of membership extras…those can be removed at any time.

But, DVD has a motive to keep them in play when the can and if anything, the past few years have done more to make them seem more valuable.

The use of points though is the big benefit for direct points IMO…

Resale saves you money but you give up things. Only an individual can decide if it’s worth it.

And, to be fair, some don’t consider the resale value to be a major part of the equation because it’s about use and no one can predict what that value will be in the future.

This....