BLT points: WOW ! Expensive, not $wise

[Budshark]

I did this earlier today. Using 7% annually for amortization and lost opportunity:

I know this is slightly off topic and is open to lots of opinion, and I know its always calculated this way, but...

What about the lost opportunity of vacations and time with families? I don't see that in the calculations FOR DVC. I guess if I wanted I could get rid of Internet, cable, luxuries, and eat only Mac-N-Cheese in order to SAVE SAVE SAVE...

But we'd be pretty miserable Sounds like a lost opportunity to me!

 

[Budshark]

Wow, I think alot of members are thinking they'll just do a couple nights there and then move to a resort that doesn't require so many points. I know that is what we've already discussed!

I'm really wondering when all is said and done and the excitement fades if it will be just as easy to get a lake view BLT as it is SSR or OKW. I just think once people realize they can stay at VWL, BWV and even BCV! for so less of points it just won't book up as fast.

I had really wanted to add on, but too many cons as opposed to pros for us right now. I can't justify it.

Yes but... I think once people "taste" walking to and from the MK and having Monorail access it won't be fading so fast.

We are going to do split stays probably, but NOT for the reason you state. We are going to do it for convenience. We like walking to the parks and being close. So we will stay 2 nights @ BLT and go to MK - and then stay 2 nights @ BWV and go to Epcot/Hollywood.

 

[edk35]

Yes but... I think once people "taste" walking to and from the MK and having Monorail access it won't be fading so fast.

We are going to do split stays probably, but NOT for the reason you state. We are going to do it for convenience. We like walking to the parks and being close. So we will stay 2 nights @ BLT and go to MK - and then stay 2 nights @ BWV and go to Epcot/Hollywood.

I am starting to think that BLT might not be too hard to get in either (7 mo) at certain times of year of course. I bet that there will be lots of split stays to at least stay there/try it out. I know we want to stay there at some point when we plan a MK park day. Wed. are great MK days...so I could see doing a Tues. Wed night there. It just depends on what time of year people travel to Disney. It will be exciting to see how this BLT booking goes starting next March for next Sept. I am sure there will be lots of Dis board action.

 

[Luv4Disney]

I was expecting much worse so DH and I didn't think it was too bad considering it IS BLT. We were pleasantly surprised! lol

I think DH and I are going to buy the minimum of 100 and then bank them every other year so we'll have enough to book at the 11 month mark every other year.

 

[Brian Noble]

I know this is slightly off topic and is open to lots of opinion, and I know its always calculated this way, but...

What about the lost opportunity of vacations and time with families?

I'm assuming you'll be vacationing no matter what. The question is only how one pays for it. In one scenario, you purchase DVC---with a large up-front cost, and smaller annual costs. In the other, you take the purchase price and invest it in something, and use the proceeds plus what you would have been paying in dues to rent rooms. The question is only: which is the better deal?

I often get hammered by the DVC faithful for applying lost opportunity to the purchase price, but even in my conservative analysis, owning is a better deal than renting if you plan on using those points for DVC stays most years.

 

[jbrowna]

I think DH and I are going to buy the minimum of 100 and then bank them every other year so we'll have enough to book at the 11 month mark every other year.

DW and I are leaning in that direction as well. Currently we have booked an OKW GV in early December for 4 days for the whole family (10 of us) to come down for an early holiday celebration. For 2009 we'd like to do the same thing at AKV. We're thinking it would be nice to add BLT into that rotation.

The other consideration is that if we decide to use those BLT points at another resort, they end up being an even better deal, because of the low BLT MFs. In fact, I wonder if you will get folks buying at BLT, but never staying there. Isn't that one of the things that some people accused SSR owners of doing: buying at SSR because of the lower MFs, without the intention of ever staying there? Isn't that one of the reasons -- again, according to some -- why booking 7 months out at one of the smaller resorts like BCV or VWL is so difficult, because of all these SSR owners using their cheaper points there? I can already hear the complaints about these darn BLT owners filling up BWV with their cheap points! Now, where did I put my tinfoil hat....

 

[Mtnman44]

No matter which way you look at the decision, everyone should agree that the Walt Disney Company has NOT created, maintained, and grown the DVC program for the purpose of helping all of us spend less money at WDW. Quite the opposite. Always keep that in mind.

I'm assuming you'll be vacationing no matter what. The question is only how one pays for it. In one scenario, you purchase DVC---with a large up-front cost, and smaller annual costs. In the other, you take the purchase price and invest it in something, and use the proceeds plus what you would have been paying in dues to rent rooms. The question is only: which is the better deal?

I often get hammered by the DVC faithful for applying lost opportunity to the purchase price, but even in my conservative analysis, owning is a better deal than renting if you plan on using those points for DVC stays most years.

 

[Brian Noble]

You are absolutely right.

It is true that the individual room stays are less expensive as an owner than a renter. In exchange for giving you that discount, Disney in turn has you committed to coming to Disney for many of your vacations over much of the forseeable future---and that means park admissions, restaurant tabs, etc. etc. etc.

True, you might be spending a comparable amount on food/entertainment on any particular vacation you'd take, but The Mouse would rather you spend it with him.

 

[panthergirl]

I think DH and I are going to buy the minimum of 100 and then bank them every other year so we'll have enough to book at the 11 month mark every other year.

That is exactly what I did. I bought 100 points today with the idea of going every other year for MNSSHP or MVMCP and using my BCV points on alternate years. I'm very excited!

 

[poohj80]

I just did some "planing" on the DVC Member interactive points calculator. And WOW !! was I unpleasantly surprised !! BLT rooms cost a lot more points then either BWV and VWL. For my plans, about 20% more points for the same vacation and room/view equivalent (we usually go 10 or more days during Magic Season). I was amazed.

For our typical stays, points per night are 60% more for MK view and 35% more for Lake View. We would need a lot more points to stay here very often.

 

[tubtruck]

Well instead of the points being 20-30% more, the rooms are 20-30% more and the MK views are even more.

Its very close to what we expected. Lake View will be the norm at a 30% premium to other resorts and MK view will be reserved for those with more discretionary spending then we have and for special events.

:

I expect the MK rooms will at first be used an awful lot by folks from other DVC resorts trying it out as the cost per point for these rooms is very high and I am pretty sure BLT owners just like those at BWV and will be points savvy and be booking up the standard rooms first

 

[snowbunny]

I actually think the point cost is much LOWER than I thought it would be......

Remember the panic threads: "ZOMG! My guide said BLT is going to be $180 per point!!!" I never believed that for a second, but I did think it might be $120-125.

 

[hakepb]

Yes but... I think once people "taste" walking to and from the MK and having Monorail access it won't be fading so fast.

We are going to do split stays probably, but NOT for the reason you state. We are going to do it for convenience. We like walking to the parks and being close. So we will stay 2 nights @ BLT and go to MK - and then stay 2 nights @ BWV and go to Epcot/Hollywood.

I do think BLT is more like paying a premium to spend less time in a bus. BLT would let you sleep in an extra 30 minutes before MK rope drop, or an extra hour you'd spend getting to Chef Mickeys in the AM. I think many will be willing to continue pay that premium for more quality vacation time on the days they are at WDW. Yes they would be buying more points then they have vacation days to use.

For us value-oriented people, we will gladly choose more days at WDW than maximizing every minute, because I do not have more points then I could use.

points used staying at BLT will be much like families of 4 staying in a 2BR. For some reason using (too many) points that way makes their vacations better.

 

[Lauralei]

Since the Contemporary Resort is very expensive due to the closeness to MK, I am not surprised at the points needed for BLT at all. Having alot of points, I am kind of glad. I can easily stay in a 1BR MKV during Magic Season for about 10 nights. Being a disgruntled SSR owner (because they don't have booking categories) I like knowing that if you want a MK View or a BL View you'll get it!!! Also we almost always go once a year for 10 to 12 nights so we always stay at least one weekend so the difference in weekday points doesn't really matter to me.

 

[TLSnell1981]

I spoke to my guide two days ago. I was all ready to add on at BLT. I checked the resales at BWV. They had my use year and 150 points available...good deal and only $81 a point. Reason won out over the hype. Maybe, next year if they are still available.

 

[poohj80]

I spoke to my guide two days ago. I was all ready to add on at BLT. I checked the resales at BWV. They had my use year and 150 points available...good deal and only $81 a point. Reason won out over the hype. Maybe, next year if they are still available.

Only $81 per point? I thought add-on points were higher than that.

 

[jbrowna]

As a resale, the $81 for BWV would still have to pass ROFR. But, actually, that's about right. Keep in mind that the BWV contract expires in 2042, 34 years out. A BLT contract goes to 2060, 50 years out, nearly 50% more years. If you extrapolated the BWV contract out over 50 years, the point cost would be just about $107. Somehow that number sounds familiar....

 

[lisareniff]

Last night I was comparing the cost of BLT with the higher point value but lower MF to my BWV points and actual $$$ cost was less at BLT.

Let me explain-- I do realize most people are not in this category but I paid a premium for my BWV points(It was my choice since that is where I wanted to stay). Since the contract had only 38 years left and I paid $92 per point, my cost is $2.42 per point + when you add on MF of $5.00 its about $7.42 per point.

BLT buy in cost is only $2.14 per point (due to the 50 year contract) + lower mf of $3.97 its only cost me $6.11 per point.

So even though It will cost more points to stay at BLT its actually cheaper for my family to stay there. Plus the weekend points are lower.

I was doing a very similar comparison today. We are considering doing an add-on at BLT or VWL. I wanted to look at the real cost verus the points for a vacation at each resort. I choose to look at 1 week in dream season and the price was similar for a 2 bedroom MK view at BLT and a 2 bedroom at VWL.

VWL 2bdrm 350pts * $4.87 MF/point = $1,704
BLT-MKV 2bdrm 468pts * $3.67 MF/point = $1,717

Now if you add in the inital investment spread evenly over the remaining years (I know it's not really that simple, but humor me)...

VWL ($80pp + ~2.5 pp (closing cost))/ 33years = $2.5 pp/yr * 350 pts = $875
BLT $107pp/50years = $2.14 pp/yr * 468 pts = $1,001

Total Cost VWL 2bdrm $1,704 + $875 = $2,579
Total Cost BLT-MKV 2bdrm $1,717 + $1,001 = $2719

Not a huge difference ~$150 especially since threre are lots of variables that can change. Like the BLT's MF could go up after the resort is sold out.

I think the moral of the story is to factor in your MF for the points you are using to really know what you are paying.

 

[DVC Mike]

Total Cost VWL 2bdrm $1,704 + $875 = $2,579
Total Cost BLT-MKV 2bdrm $1,717 + $1,001 = $2719

For that $140 extra, you get a Magic Kingdom View (instead of woods view), walking to the MK (instead of a boat ride), and monorail access to other resorts.

Sounds worth it to me!

 

[lisareniff]

I was actually very surprised that they were not very different in price.

Now if you were going to use VB points to stay at BLT that would be a whole different story!