My DH and I rented points for a late January visit and booked 2 nights at the GF at the beginning of the trip. When the AP holder rate came out I called and got a great deal on a MK-view CR instead of GF garden-view (saved $140 too!!!)
I then did the math seeing if all 7 nights at that rate would have been cheaper than my
DVC rental and the DVC rental still came out ahead by over $800. Now of course, the CR room is a MK view so it is not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison, but I think the larger room and full kitchen are somewhat comparable against the theme-park view smaller non-kitchen CR.
In the end, you will always get a larger room with more amenities by going DVC. I think for your first time with a child you might appreciate the added room.
As for your choice of AKL, you might want to hold off on that unless your child is old enough to appreciate watching the animals. If you go for the new DVC, Bay Lake Towers (BLT) you will be right next door to the park your little one will probably love best and the monorail will make getting a sleepy one home in a snap. I have read many threads about parents raving about how convenient the monorail is for getting home fast with strollers, tired kids, etc. BLT will be the only DVC on the monorail and it opens (fingers crossed) September 1, 2009.