best guess where resale prices will be in 2 years?

[Dean]

I'm surprised owners were able to get $10-$10.50 back in 1995. I'm not doubting you, just surprised that the rental market was that high given the much lower (I assume) cash price of equivalent deluxe on-site resorts back then. Given the much lower MFs back then, that was quite the deal for owners.

Remember that early on there was only OKW plus BWV at WDW. OKW included passes. I can tell you that I've rented at least 1 villa EOY since 1995 (average about 2 a year) and never gotten below $10.50 including after 9/11. The only exception was a last minute rental where the original renters backed out losing their deposit, even then my total rental value was slightly over my usual at the time. YMMV.

 

[sweetdana]

I'm thinking a few factors should help bring the price down:

1) The biggest - less time before the expiration. Theres only so much time to be able to use it.
2) With Grand Floridian coming people will be selling theirs to buy there.


I'm thinking

BLT might be $75 resale
BC $55
bw $45
ak $45
ss $40

what are your thoughts, more or less??????????

IMO
1) I think SSR and AK will be closer to BW and BC within about 5 yrs. If you look at trends and yrs left on the contracts. Eventually more yrs will outlast location. (And I think 40$ is too low. I suspect 50s makes a more likely low. Minus the rare steal).

2) if Disney ROFRs again it will keep the market falsely inflated.. The opposite is true if they mess with the rental restrictions/ resale restrictions.

3)BLT will be closer to others once it is not the newest any more. (It will be slightly more than BC due to yrs but lose its New-ness when it isn't newest resort any more.)

 

[montrealdisneylovers]

IMO
1) I think SSR and AK will be closer to BW and BC within about 5 yrs. If you look at trends and yrs left on the contracts. Eventually more yrs will outlast location. (And I think 40$ is too low. I suspect 50s makes a more likely low. Minus the rare steal).

2) if Disney ROFRs again it will keep the market falsely inflated.. The opposite is true if they mess with the rental restrictions/ resale restrictions.

3)BLT will be closer to others once it is not the newest any more. (It will be slightly more than BC due to yrs but lose its New-ness when it isn't newest resort any more.)

I disagree somewhat about BLT. When GF comes about, it many no longer be the newest but it will still be the only one within easy walking distance to Magic Kingdom. Also, as Disney keeps increasing their price per point for direct purchases (like GF and in the future perhaps the Poly) this should help hold up the resale value of BLT.

 

[Mississippian]

IMO
1) I think SSR and AK will be closer to BW and BC within about 5 yrs. If you look at trends and yrs left on the contracts. Eventually more yrs will outlast location. (And I think 40$ is too low. I suspect 50s makes a more likely low. Minus the rare steal).

3)BLT will be closer to others once it is not the newest any more. (It will be slightly more than BC due to yrs but lose its New-ness when it isn't newest resort any more.)

I view DVC as a Discount Vacation Club, in that the annual dues are substantial. As such, I agree that BW and BC will start to decline a bit, but I suspect these resorts will still remain popular. In 2017 BW and BC will be down to 25 years while SSR and AK will be at 37 years. Well, would you rather look forward to 25 years in a luxury resort that is located practically inside the theme park, with a sundry shop just a few steps from your room, or would you rather have 37 years in a resort in the middle of nowhere serviced only by a dreadful bus, where you have to walk a mile each morning just to get your New York Times? I'll gladly pay substantially more for 25 years in heaven versus 37 years in hades.

As for BLT, as much as I like the EPCOT resort locations, I think the BLT location is superior (I haven't stayed there, though). The extra years shouldn't matter that much, but they will for some. I think BLT will continue to sell at a premium; if not, I may be a buyer!

 

[Sandisw]

I really think that the economy plays a role in where the resale prices are. They seem to have leveled off a bit in the last year, even with the ROFR that has happened in 2012.

When we bought BWV last year, we got it for $55/pt. There were others at the time getting in in the 50's as well. Now, it seems that it is back up to the low 60's.

BLT, however, seems to be going down a bit and instead of the high 90's like last year--although I got $104/pt for a 30 point contract in 2011--it seems to be averaging lower 90's, with a few deals in the 80's.

SSR, since I started looking in 2009, actually seems to have stayed relatively where it is today so although it dropped quickly at first, it seems to have found a spot that keeps it a great but competitive deal.

My prediction is that in 2 years, things will be pretty much where they are today.

Of course, I'd love to be wrong where BLT is concerned---if that becomes routinely available near $80, then I have a feeling addonitis wil make its return!!!

 

[suebeelin]

I really think that the economy plays a role in where the resale prices are. They seem to have leveled off a bit in the last year, even with the ROFR that has happened in 2012.

When we bought BWV last year, we got it for $55/pt. There were others at the time getting in in the 50's as well. Now, it seems that it is back up to the low 60's.

BLT, however, seems to be going down a bit and instead of the high 90's like last year--although I got $104/pt for a 30 point contract in 2011--it seems to be averaging lower 90's, with a few deals in the 80's.

SSR, since I started looking in 2009, actually seems to have stayed relatively where it is today so although it dropped quickly at first, it seems to have found a spot that keeps it a great but competitive deal.

My prediction is that in 2 years, things will be pretty much where they are today.

Of course, I'd love to be wrong where BLT is concerned---if that becomes routinely available near $80, then I have a feeling addonitis wil make its return!!!

Love this thread. Look at the prices now!!! 2.5 yrs later!!

 

[bellablue2]

my best guess is that resales prices will be very similar/a bit higher in two years. as for a $60 bwv contract, i haven't seen anything close to that since i began monitoring the bwv resale market in october. $75-85 is closer to reality.

OH MY...i just saw that most of these points are from years back?

 

[LetsGoToo]

my best guess is that resales prices will be very similar/a bit higher in two years. as for a $60 bwv contract, i haven't seen anything close to that since i began monitoring the bwv resale market in october. $75-85 is closer to reality.

OH MY...i just saw that most of these points are from years back?

Prices sure haven't gone down! I think the economy has had more to do with it than anything.

 

[beer dave]

Interesting old thread-- lets start it over--

So many factors--
With the increase in point costs in the new resorts (per night) the older contracts may become more valuable if the new purchasers begin to use their points at the 7 month windows to book the less expensive stays--- IE new poly owner goes to poly a few times, decides to try BWV, realizes how far their points will go there, and begins to utilize other resorts. -- the 11 month window for booking BWV will become much more necessary, and thus the resale will increase.

As far as total length of contract, I think the prices will hold (and not reflect short time left on contract ) until around 15 to 20 years left on contract--

This amount of time will cover the span of a family to bring their new born children on future trips.

Beyond 15 years, I think the prices will drop.

 

[LetsGoToo]

Interesting old thread-- lets start it over--

So many factors--
With the increase in point costs in the new resorts (per night) the older contracts may become more valuable if the new purchasers begin to use their points at the 7 month windows to book the less expensive stays--- IE new poly owner goes to poly a few times, decides to try BWV, realizes how far their points will go there, and begins to utilize other resorts. -- the 11 month window for booking BWV will become much more necessary, and thus the resale will increase.

As far as total length of contract, I think the prices will hold (and not reflect short time left on contract ) until around 15 to 20 years left on contract--

This amount of time will cover the span of a family to bring their new born children on future trips.

Beyond 15 years, I think the prices will drop.

My guess is that Disney will offer extensions by the 15 year mark. It would be much easier on them to have people go ahead and extend. I don't think that they want DVCers thinking that their time runs out fairly soon.

 

[Dean]

My guess is that Disney will offer extensions by the 15 year mark. It would be much easier on them to have people go ahead and extend. I don't think that they want DVCers thinking that their time runs out fairly soon.

We've discussed this issue many times and I believe DVD has a real dilemma when it comes to extensions. It's really to their advantage to have everyone extend even if they don't get any direct money out of it but with OKW they were greedy and it backfired, IMO. To a degree, they made their bed. The OKW method didn't work but anything they do from here really needs to be quite different from that offer since it was largely unsuccessful and they've made a commitment to those that were involved in that extension. In addition, the specifics of that offer included a possible special assessment if one didn't do anything, a method that is not consistent with what's allowed in the POS. Specific to the extension itself, IMO it was unsuccessful because of price, method and presentation. To me that means either they need to offer extensions completely differently and/or much later in the course. I'd agree they need to be ahead of the curve enough to keep people from making final exit plans. IMO the best opportunity for them to do this successfully would be as a purchase incentive for additional points that was additive to other specials. The alternative is a much later and ? cheaper extension options. As for what they will do, I'm conflicted. Since they haven't used this as a sales incentive so far, they likely will not. I'm at about 50/50 between no sales incentive or one that's about 7 yrs out that's comparatively cheaper. When I say comparatively cheaper, I'd consider OKW at $15 or even $20 a point that late as cheaper due to the lead time.

 

[beer dave]

42 is going to (or potentially could be ) an interesting year. Like a bomb dropping, Dvd could suddenly own all of VB, HHI, BWV, BCV, VWL, and portions of OKW. I think they realized this afterwords and the subsequent resorts have several years between their expiration dates to create a staggered re-sale.

I hope for my kids that they will offer a reasonable extension, but why would they, other than the desire to not have to sell all of those properties at once. Maybe in the years close to the expiration date, we will begin to see ROFR exercised more frequently, in attempt to spread out the sale process--although they would have to hold the contracts until expiration in order to sell them with a new expiration date, wouldn't they?

If they offer an extension at 7 years out, how long would the extension be? Wouldn't they rather re claim and sell for another 50 years? And can they sell an old resort at the current prices (or the prices that will be prevalent in 42) for 50 years? Imagine renovating 6 resorts at one time to prepare them for resale.

curious as to how this is going to play out... and did they even consider it when selling OKW originally?

 

[Dean]

I think the few years before are going to be more interesting, 2042 will be anticlimactic. Likely 2038-2040 will have the most activity and consternation.

 

[DougEMG]

I'm hoping that they do offer an extension option for the 2042 resorts. It won't help me at all as I'll probably be unable to get to WDW by then, but I would buy the extension so my daughter could continue to use it.

 

[DougEMG]

I'm thinking a few factors should help bring the price down:

1) The biggest - less time before the expiration. Theres only so much time to be able to use it.
2) With Grand Floridian coming people will be selling theirs to buy there.


I'm thinking

BLT might be $75 resale
BC $55
bw $45
ak $45
ss $40

what are your thoughts, more or less??????????

It was kind of funny that this thread came back after two years. Seems that SSR is selling for around $80, BCV around $90 and BLT for just over $100 now.

Oh how I wished I had of bought more contracts back in 2010-2011.

 

[a742246]

After reading this tread that started 2 and 1/2 years ago. I am now convinced that I and most (if not all of the res ponders) didn't know diddley back then.

 

[KingRichard]

I'll take all the $40 SSR points you got?

Anyone?

 

[tomandrobin]

Awesome that this thread came back.....

Wow, how times have changed. Been a sellers market for a few years now. I bought a bunch between 2010 and 2012 before the increase in resale prices.

Next recession, I am going hard on the VGF distressed resales!

 

[DougEMG]

Next recession, I am going hard on the VGF distressed resales!

I'd love some cheap VGF points. Is it wrong of me to hope for a recession?