Are we being snowed by posted wait times?

[mickeymad]

Hi all! I have a question for those of you in the park. I have checked the my Disney experience website versus other wait time websites. I have found the times to be significantly different for example MDE states Pirates of the Caribbean has a 10 minute wait time and the other App says it's 45 minutes. Seven dwarfs mine train says 50 minutes and the other app says 120+ minutes.

Which one do you think is more accurate? Do you think we are being lulled into a sense of low crowds?

PS I will be there in three days and am happy to simply be at Disney and waiting in line but I do want to be realistic on the waits.

 

[tlmadden73]

I feel Disney will do the opposite. They will over estimate wait times to either keep people away from a ride (thus making the line worse), to shift people to other attractions, to shift people to shops/restaurants or to simply make you happier when the posted wait was less than expected.

I just don't think wait times CAN be accurate like we expect because of FP+.

Let's say Pirates SHOWS a 10 minute wait, but 200 people show up in the FP line (everyone with the same window showed up at the exact time) . .
That 10 minute wait just BALLOONED quickly, but there is no way for Disney to quickly adjust that time on their signs or app as there was no way for them to predict such a massive influx of people at once.

The opposite can happen too.
A ride shows a 30 minute wait time and no one shows up in the FP line for 30 minutes .. the standby line will shrink quickly.

The only way to accurately show wait times is for Disney to be able to COUNT exactly how many people are in line in real time.

 

[mickeymad]

Thanks for the reply! Wait times don't seem too bad for the week after July 4th. I know the other app has times at the dedication of people in line updating in real time so I was feeling a little undisney-like cynicism

 

[DebbieB]

The Lines App has both an expected and posted time. The expected is their estimate.

 

[oktxregulators]

When I was in the park for two weeks in June, the wait times posted by Disney were only about 1/3 of the time correct. Most of the time the wait was not as long but like tlmadden says, one minute the wait can be ten minutes and the next minute it can jump depending on how many FP people show up. I used the touring plans app on my phone which seemed to be more accurate then what Disney was posting. However, do keep in mind nothing is 100%.

 

[Aliceacc]

The wait time is a best-guesstimate, regardless of who posts it.

 

[JimmyV]

The Lines App has both an expected and posted time. The expected is their estimate.

They also employ a third feature called "actual waits". These are times that people have timed using a stopwatch feature on the app. Obviously, actual wait times are the most accurate, assuming that someone posted an actual time close to when you are at the ride yourself.

To put this into perspective, here is some of the data for Pirates today:
15 minutes ago, the posted time was 20 minutes.
31 minutes ago, a user timed their actual wait and it was 18 minutes.
AT 10:44 this morning, a user reported the posted wait time as being 20 minutes.
That same user then got in the line at 10:44, timed their actual wait, and it was 29 minutes.

 

[Accident]

my experience is disney's numbers are actually longer than the real wait. Some exceptions like when there is a sudden rush of new people but even then it changes pretty quick to another higher than it should take number..

 

[BrownHP800]

my experience is disney's numbers are actually longer than the real wait. Some exceptions like when there is a sudden rush of new people but even then it changes pretty quick to another higher than it should take number..

Last weekend I experienced just the opposite. We were never in line as long as the Disney posted wait times. Now granted, if it was posted longer than 30 minutes we skipped it so I can't say about the long waits. But 20 minute posted times were more like 10 minutes.

 

[Babe the Blue Ox]

In the evening, the posted wait can often exceed 4 times the actual wait. Disney uses "Line Stacking" and other techniques to discourage late night riders and to steer them towards the gift shops. I read about this in the 2001 unofficial guide so it's nothing new.

But if you know how the system works you can get in multiple rerides with very short waits. TSMM 4 times in less than an hour when the posted wait was 70 minutes is just an example.

 

[RafikiTiki21]

One of the ways Disney gets data for their posted wait times is those red card lanyards given to some guests. That's their timer through the queue the way apps have guests timing it on the phones. One kid who forgets to hand off the lanyard when they ride can skew the data set.

I believe it's been discussed on here that Disney may post overestimated wait times near the end of the night to discourage a big line from forming near closing.

But in general I don't think we're being snowed-- it's in their best interest for guests to have accurate information and a positive experience. It isn't an exact science though (crowds forming and ride loading) so the different sources will have different info. It's good to recognize that and read a few wait times when making a decision on site.

I agree with others and use Lines for any decision making on the spot or when deviating from a touring plan.

 

[1supermomsmd]

They also employ a third feature called "actual waits". These are times that people have timed using a stopwatch feature on the app. Obviously, actual wait times are the most accurate, assuming that someone posted an actual time close to when you are at the ride yourself.

To put this into perspective, here is some of the data for Pirates today:
15 minutes ago, the posted time was 20 minutes.
31 minutes ago, a user timed their actual wait and it was 18 minutes.
AT 10:44 this morning, a user reported the posted wait time as being 20 minutes.
That same user then got in the line at 10:44, timed their actual wait, and it was 29 minutes.

Is this the Touring Plans Walt Disney World App? Where is this 3rd actual waits displayed? Thank you in advance for your assistance.

 

[Jennasis]

Lines by touring plans is what we use. Never been led astray by them.

 

[JimmyV]

Is this the Touring Plans Walt Disney World App? Where is this 3rd actual waits displayed? Thank you in advance for your assistance.

When you click on a specific attraction, just scroll all the way down to the bottom.

 

[hakepb]

At the end of 2014, EasyWDW found a way to get Disney's "actual wait time" (I'm guessing the current red card data).
It seemed close to accurate and was lower more times than high (not unusual seeing 50% lower now and then)

I loved using the actual, as it made it easy to "zig" through low wait times while others "zagged", even on a peak Christmas week.

Unfortunately those semi-public actual wait times didn't last long.

 

[Dbktmc]

I think that Disney does their best to give accurate wait times using the red card lanyard system. Our family was given the lanyards multiple times on our recent trip.

 

[phillymummer]

On my last trip, the wait times were all over the place. Sometimes the wait was significantly less than the posted wait time (ex- Splash Mt posted wait time- 40 minutes, actual wait time- about 15 min!). Other times, it was much closer to the posted wait time. A few rides were longer than the posted wait (Jungle cruise being one of them). On our MK day we were asked 3 times to carry the "red card" that helps determine wait time. One of those times was on Jungle Cruise, which is why I remember the actual wait time being longer than the posted time. It started to become a running joke and we started making bets on whether or not we would get the card!

 

[ArielSRL]

Last weekend I experienced just the opposite. We were never in line as long as the Disney posted wait times. Now granted, if it was posted longer than 30 minutes we skipped it so I can't say about the long waits. But 20 minute posted times were more like 10 minutes.

I think he was saying exactly what you are saying. Real waits are less than Disney's posted. Yes, @Accident?

 

[ArielSRL]

On my last trip, the wait times were all over the place. Sometimes the wait was significantly less than the posted wait time (ex- Splash Mt posted wait time- 40 minutes, actual wait time- about 15 min!). Other times, it was much closer to the posted wait time. A few rides were longer than the posted wait (Jungle cruise being one of them). On our MK day we were asked 3 times to carry the "red card" that helps determine wait time. One of those times was on Jungle Cruise, which is why I remember the actual wait time being longer than the posted time. It started to become a running joke and we started making bets on whether or not we would get the card!

We got it 3x at MK as well. PP, 7DMT, and Meeting Mickey. However, I thought it was sort of odd because 2 of the 3x we were going through the FP line. But I guess they collect that data as well.

 

[Accident]

I think he was saying exactly what you are saying. Real waits are less than Disney's posted. Yes, @Accident?

yes I was saying the same thing and disney has the number higher.. I think it's partially because they may have peopel that need more assistance getting on or off the ride so they just pad the number a little.. They are a lot better at the number not being lower than it really is the last couple months so maybe they have integrated their rider count system into the wait times now and lanyards and probably magicband tracking is used to get a realistic number of how long it might take to ride right now.

I do also think popular rides are padding a little more as well as slow to reduce the number especially as it approaches closing time where they want to get the park closed about an hour after it's publicized.