Are things changing?

[HorizonsFan]

the large and difficult to sell new SS resort looming on the market

I understand your concerns, but how do you know SS will be "difficult to sell"?

 

[sgtpet]

SS is in a lousy location. Similar size rooms as the BCV. The economy stinks and I think that the major boost for BCV were members add ons. I don't see those members adding on more at SS.

 

[WDWorld2003]

You're scaring me We're making an offer on a resale!

From our perspective, we had not been to WDW in 9 years until this spring. All we could say was WOW! Most of the changes were for the better - more to do, more to see - great shows and parades! MGM was very small our 1st time - done in 2-3 hours. Animal Kingdom did not exist and neither did Downtown Disney. Magic Kingdom was as great as the first time.

On the downside, hours were shorter than our previous visit. We also were not as impressed with Epcot. Spaceship Earth and Innovations did not seem up to date with the latest and we felt as a whole this park could use some updating. (We still loved it but were so wowed the 1st time & did not feel that way this time).

Maybe you just need to take a break for a few years. Going to the same place can make you see all of the little things you did not see before. Main. fees seem stable based on charts. I'm not sure of the future with Sarasota Springs but hopefully, it will be another nice DVC option.

 

[vernon]

High yearly fees, fewer new things at WDW, overbuilding of WDW resorts, the large and difficult to sell new SS resort looming on the market, concerns about maintenance and housekeeping, new 7 day specials at WDW for the price of four days, concerns about the end date (2042) not allowing much of a legacy for my grandchildren, intense competition and wonderful products from Marriott and others, $95 exchange fees, rising point prices for WDW resorts and on and on

High fees?? They have gone up at a significantly lower rate than hotel room rates over the last 10 years. IMHO you're feeling it a little more than most because you've doubled your holding. I don't think that's fair to lay at Disney's feet.

fewer new things at WDW, a fair point IMHO. But on the other hand I would say since you first joined up Disney has build WWoS ( still massively under used/developed IMHO) , AK, BB West side ( DQ and Cirque du Soleil). Added to that Universal has added IOA ( OK not Disney but it's worth a visit). There is more than enough entertainment available in Orlando if you're prepared to look for it. I love to visit Busch Gardens and had a very enjoyable day visiting the Dali museum in Tampa at Xmas. Not Disney, but I would still like to swim with manatees, explore the Florida wetlands, visit Kennedy Space Centre, the art galleries at Winter Park and a host of other things that are all reachable a short drive from WDW. By limiting the amount of time I spend in Disney parks I find I still enjoy them each time I visit, as with another poster I think maybe you've got a little stale doing the "same stuff" time after time and need to try some non Disney activities to freshen your jaded palate. Had WDW been the only attraction in Orlando I doubt I would have bought in, but IMHO there is a multitude of different things to do. One's opportunity to amuse and entertain oneself is only limited by the imagination to find them.

Difficult to sell SSR???, Can't see how you can say that when sales are not even scheduled for another 9 months. I tend to agree they won't fly off the shelves as BCV did, because the resort doesn't have a ready made client base of Y+B club regulars. But the spa aspect is definately a plus and if done correctly I don't think it will perform unfavourably when compared to the sales of OKW or BWV. It will certainly add a variety to DVC offerings and I'm all in favour of that.

Maintenance and Housekeeping is a justifiable concern, but IMHO so far that has remained something to keep an eye on, but poor rooms or problems are not endemic on DVC properties. Isolated instances appear on any hotel or timeshare from time to time, it's how those issues are addressed that's key and in general I think DVC does that more than adiquately.

Overbuilding resorts, don't see how that per se effects your value and ownership other than it is exagerated the effect of the recession in the vacation business (particularly since 9/11) which is covered in your 7 days for the price of 4. While there are some great deals about at the moment, DVC is a long term investment and if you take your total cost and the average length of time you have owned DVC I would think you're pretty close to having paid off the capital expence of DVC and now you're cost is "dues". Your 500 points cost $2,000 a year give or take. for that you could conceivably book 60 nights in a studio at OKW putting your nightly cost at below $40 a night. Granted via hotwire it's possible to book a 3* hotel off site for that I don't think those deals will be available every year for the next 40.

Concerns about the end date?? That's always been 2042 and was well known when we bought in, how has that changed ? I doubt that DVC makes up a significant part of your assets and as such it's impact on the legacy you leave is, IMO limited.

Competition from Mariotte etc, another fair point, there are some good products on offer, some cheaper than DVC. But they are also faced with the same "complaints" about justifying the value of a timeshare at a time when hotel discounts are the most aggressive I've known them in 10 years of visiting Orlando. I believe I've covered the "long term investment" aspect already. This is a personal choice for people to make 1) Is staying on site important to you, if so DVC is all you have to choose from and 2) It's unlikely that Disney will sell off DVC as it owns the land and expects to reclaim DVC in 2042. For that reason I think DVC should retain it's overall quality all the way up to 2042. I'm less certain that will be the case with other developments when the developer (Mariotte, Hilton or whoever) don't have longterm ties or other commitments to a particular area.

Rising points for WDW resorts is an other justifiable concern, I know the arguments about the recession affecting the ability to rent. I do see that argument, but IMHO it's only one that can be made in the short term. I think the cost of WDW resorts in this fashion is already too high and if there is not some correction very shortly I'd like to know why.

To the original poster I would say you sound like you're a little DVC'd out or maybe it's WDW'ded out. Perhaps you need to purposely make the effort to escape WDW and get out to see some of the other things on offer in Orlando. Alternately if you've not visited HH yet, that's a great change of pace. I've always tried to make sure that I've spent at least a couple of days away from Disney on each and every visit just to avoid that "burnout".

 

[dianeschlicht]

Very well said, Vernon!

Maybe do a couple of exchanges to places like Hawaii or Europe and come back with a new perspective in a couple of years. We have owned for 7 years, and I still feel it is a GREAT value. Of course, we only have 380 points (and at OKW), so the dues aren't that big a deal. Do you have some smaller contracts you could sell off? Maybe DVC would seem like a bettter value again then.

 

[crisi]

To address the value change:

When OKW first opened, what a value! In retrospect it was great - free park tickets, low purchase price. But at the time there was risk associated. People who took the jump into a Disney timeshare took it when the timeshare concept didn't have a great reputation and Disney had an unproven product with an unsual model. So you got a good value, but took risk.

In the 1990s, DVC was a good value when compared against Disney hotel rooms. Big discounts on Disney hotel rooms were unknown. But compared on the return people were getting on the stock market - if you invested right - DVC wasn't much of a value.

If you bought in 2000, once the stock market started tanking, you were getting great value - if you bought intending to use and sell. I bought in 2002 and have seen about a 14% return on my investment in what I bought my points for (resale) and what I could sell them for now (resale). Not many investments in the past year would get that.

Currently DVC is a good value when compared against the stock market, less of a value when considered against the price of a Disney hotel room. But who is to say if the Disney hotels will continue to discount in 2010? We are back to the risk model - people "investing" in DVC at this moment are betting that Disney will not offer deals like the Fairytale package forever. (Or they are choosing to "invest" in getting condo style accomodations on property). And, while the Fairytale package is great, it doesn't do a lot of good for AP holders. Disney packages are targeted - and the FT package isn't really targeted to someone whose going to spend 500 DVC points per year.

All this assumes value is a priority - which it is for a lot of people. But there are those of us out here who also bought DVC to enforce a regular vacation. Or to be able to control costs over time, or be able to easily bring guests, or even (dare I say it) rent their points.

My rather lengthy point - at any given time you can say DVC is a good value, a great value, or bad value or even a bad risk, depending on what you are measuring against and how you are weighting your options.

To address the "things have changed"

We love AK. We think its an amazing thing and when talking about "not adding any new big attractions" we are always kind of astounded. What pace of change is expected here? Yes, older, less popular attractions have closed. Epcot is going through an identity crisis (particularly future world) as Disney once again discovers that the "future" isn't a static thing and needs to be continually updated. But Test Track is still relatively new. Mission Space is opening. Imagination has been refreshed. If you go several times a year, you can't expect something big to have changed every time (go every five years and the difference in the parks is astounding). Nor can it be expected that things will never change and that older attractions won't close. Yes, it would be nice if they found something to do with "Ariels Grotto"

Our last trip was five years after the previous trip. New to us were Test Track, RnRC, Buzz in the MK, all of Animal Kingdom, Fantasmic, plus a bunch of smaller scale attractions, shows and parades. Several things had been refreshed (not necessarily for the better IMO, cough cough, Tiki Birds and Energy and that *#&@ thing hanging over Spaceship Earth). That's a ton of stuff. My parents hadn't been in fifteen or twenty years and it was a whole different place! But going every year the changes are much more subtle.

 

[tvwalsh]

Car dealers are using massive incentives to move perfectly wonderful cars. Disney is giving away free nights in perfectly wonderful resort hotels.

The time has come for Disney to step up to the plate and give DVC buyers some truly meaningful incentives to buy or add on to their perfectly wonderful timeshare points!

Some of you thought I was attacking your choice of a timeshare. Why would I do that? I have 500 points. The problem is that Disney is trying to sell to us at full price while almost every other seller has realized that strong incentives are needed at this time to move the goods.

 

[KNWVIKING]

"The time has come for Disney to step up to the plate and give DVC buyers some truly meaningful incentives to buy or add on to their perfectly wonderful timeshare points!"


Why should they ? I don't mean that sarcastically, but why would they want to give incentives ?

Auto manufacture's have an over abundance of product,they have to offer rebates & zero interest.

WDW resorts have too many unbooked rooms,they have to offer deals.

VB is selling slow, DVC offered a $15.00 MB to get interest going.

But on-site resorts sell like hot cakes. Raise the price,they still sell. Move offices out of BWV, open new units,those points sell. BVC selling out fast, DVC guides need something to sell: invoke RoFR,those points will sell. If we use our room keys to charge things, DVC/WDW can track our every move. High percentage still going to the parks ? Why offer a discount.

DVC won't cut us a break until sales drop and we stop going to the parks. I'm not saying that in a negative way,it's just a business fact.

 

[RWishbone]

First of all, Vernon's points are well stated IMO and I will not repeat them. But I just don't understand TVWalsh's followup post in which it argues that DVC should be stepping up to the plate to offer discounts. I own at the BWV and I do not think that it is my best interest or any owner's interest if DVC starts offering discounts to new buyers. From what I see, the resorts continue to sell at an astonishing rate. Why does it help currrent owners if new buyers get in at a lower price? Sooner or later, Disney will likely start lowering the buy in price to account for the 2042 end date. That, to me, only signals the end is nearing.

I am usually terribly guilty of buyer's remorse. In the case of DVC I can truly say that i have never regretted the decsion. On the contrary, we have made numerous add-ons. That said, I think that I have reached my personal saturation point at least for the time being (650 points).

Rich

 

[Disney Doll]

I would have to agree that perhaps it's time for a little time away from WDW and the on-site DVC properties.

I will certainly agree that each trip that we've gone on to WDW (and there have been 2-3 per year every year since 1991) elicits a different response and experience. I would agree that I have stayed in some less-than-perfectly maintained hotel rooms(although, they are still better maintained than most hotel rooms...just not up to what we consider to be WDW standards), I have encountered the occasional cranky CM. Overall though, I can say that I have generally had above average vacations every time I have visited WDW. We have a total of 430 points, so we're pretty close to you tvwlash, and I have no problem paying for the dues, because I still, despite a few quirks here and there, think that it is the best vacation value around.

I don't think that when someone says "if you are unhappy, why don't you sell" that they are necessarily attempting to be nasty. The point is, if you are going to spend money on something every month that is going to aggravate every time you go on vacation, because you'll be thinking every time there is the inevitable snafu "look what I'm spending my money on" and becoming angry and distressed...well that's not much of a vacation, now is it? I go on vacation to relax, not to become more pi$$ed off. Maybe the point is that the DVC worked for you for "X" number of years, and now it no longer does, and that's fine. But why prolong the anger and agony???

IMHO, it is still the best vacation value around. If your focus isn't WDW, then the Marriott timeshares are probably a good idea. As for DH and I, we like being on the property, not 10 minutes outside the gate. There's something to be said for the "feel", the "ambience" whatever...

 

[Ian.Whiteley]

I guess we can all only speak for ourselves. The reason we bought into DVC was that we didn't want to shoehorn a family of 4 (who will only get bigger as they get older) into a hotel room. We stayed at WL prior to buying into DVC and whilst it was nice the rooms were pretty small.
Now we stay in a 1Bed minimum and love the extra space you get. That for me is one of the big pluses. We haven't done WDW for nearly 2 years now and are really looking forward to returning. Burnout just isn't an issue yet. When the kids don't want to holiday with Mum & Dad anymore we will take advantage of places like Hawaii that DVC offers.
Like Vernon said, the variety Orlando offers is amazing and WDW isn't everything (heresay?). I think we owe it to ourselves to let DVC know of any shortcomings we experience so that we safeguard our own interests. There isn't an organisation out there that doesn't need a boot up the backside every now and then! Lets keep them on their toes.

 

[vernon]

Just wanted to echo Viking's comment. Hotels all over the world have excess capacity at the moment and need to get people in, car companies have YEARS of inventory on their books. In the UK if we didn't import or build another car it would be well into 2004 before there were none left to sell. I believe the US has similar over capacity. The difference between those markets and DVC is that DVC is selling the units as it builds them and recoups the money ( extraordinarily quickly in the case of BCV) not only is it getting it's outlay back quickly it's notching up a very healthy profit immediately. DVC is a fantastic cashflow machine. Hotels sitting empty have costs attached to them and low capacity means they run at a loss. A car plant that has 1,000+ cars sitting in the lot has spent a large amount of money on raw materials and labour, they are also sitting on a diminishing asset, for them it is good business to discount prices.

Plain and simple DVC is still selling at an incredable rate in a difficult economic time, why on earth would they discount when they could easily sell for a higher price.

 

[trishy]

Excellent points made about the points... We're a family of 5 so considering this (similar to the growing family of 4 above) we need more space. DVC resorts offer that. Instead of comparing to a hotel room we would need rooms - cha-ching!!! I'm glad DVC doesn't discount and keeps a tight rein on the rofr which keeps our resale value high (especially if you bought 'way back when...'). I think KNWVIKING hit the nail on the head when he(?) referred to changes - some bad, some good - may have been influenced by the internet and the sharing of personal WDW/DVC experiences. Excellent points, but I'm sooo happy with my points, though I'm open to everybody's individual points about their points . I wouldn't dare say "sell your points if you're not happy", but I do agree that maybe a change of scenery is in order. I LOVE the fact we are not 'locked' into only our WDW home resort and have other options to explore. Come out to CA and explore Disneyland Resort or Grand Californian (or both). Being a 'point cruiser', I'm not thrilled with the increase of points needed and the exchange rate increase, but it's better than DVC just yanking that option away from us completely. I think I'm just a little bit on the positive side because we're leaving to WDW SOON!!! Yippee!

 

[ncligs]

Here is an intresting post below by Sue(WDW1972) who seems to have no regrets in her DVC points(1050 of them) . This was posted on another DVC thread. Here is her post below........


I don't own any other timeshares, but I'm a single person with 1050 dvc points currently. I've never regretted or second-guessed a single point, and plan to call my guide to order another 100 on Monday. Fortunately I live 3 hours from wdw, so I'm able to make frequent trips - since I'm usually in a studio those points go pretty far. When I retire I can stretch them even further by skipping weekends, too!

I'm not interested in any other timeshares - and although I can see the benefit of treating one like a business, that seems like more work than I want to be bothered with.


__________________
Sue
WDW1972

 

[Regina]

I'm a DVC "old-timer" and I never expected it to turn out this way.

I never expected the same points that I paid $51.00 to be selling in the $70.00 range 11 years later.

I never expected to have BWV, VWL, BCV and soon SSR to choose from.

I never expected to be able to go on a cruise, much less a Disney cruise, with my points.

I never thought I'd stay at the Plaza in NYC but I did by using my points.

I've celebrated 20, 25 and 30 years of the MK. I've seen a whole new park added, AK, which I've watched grow along with Epcot and MGM.

I never expected that our kids would be just as enthusiastic about WDW from the time that they were young through adulthood. The amount of dues that we pay are nothing compared to what the actual price of the resort would be. This gives us plenty of extra $$$ to spend on our passes and fantastic meals. We have incredible vacations in spacious accommodations.

I never thought that we'd be able to invite friends and other family members on Disney trips.

So I guess I can say that it hasn't met my expectations.

 

[SlyHubby]

Originally posted by ncligs
Here is an intresting post below by Sue(WDW1972) who seems to have no regrets in her DVC points(1050 of them).

nick, I want to personally thank you for the way you've obliged in proving exactly what I said you would do last night.

 

[Wags]

RWishbone in regards to your comment

" But I just don't understand TVWalsh's followup post in which it argues that DVC should be stepping up to the plate to offer discounts. I own at the BWV and I do not think that it is my best interest or any owner's interest if DVC starts offering discounts to new buyers."

I think tvwalsh is referring to some incentives for current owners. The argument is probably based on the fact that WDW is offering incentives to non-DVC owners, i.e. Fairytale. So hence, why not something for those who have committed to being there in good times and bad.

Really, if you think about it, don't you feel to some extent they are taking DVC owners for granted? The buying public expresses their discontent by not spending their dollars on vacation. Whereas the DVC owner really has to use the points, so how does WDW lose and what reason should they offer incentives? Sure you can argue DVC owners are buying future vacations at a discount, but don't think for a minute that Disney is going to be losing money on those future vacations.

 

[PamOKW]

The comment, "if you don't like it then sell" isn't necessarily derogatory. It is, in fact, a viable option. Just as an unhappy employee is not being held in slavery, an unhappy owner doesn't have to continue to own their DVC.

When BCV opened in uncertain times, DVC did offer current owners very deep discounts on the points. This really jump started the whole resort. It's possible they will do something similar with SSR if they anticipate slow sales.

I agree that it would be nice for DVC to do things that make us feel appreciated. But, it is a business and everything has an "angle". The summer barbecues are meant to make us feel special...if we happen to purchase more points that's a bonus.

Not everyone is going to be happy all the time. Hopefully, disappointment can be managed. Those who no longer really enjoy the parks can still partake of the golf, the spas, the fine restaurants, etc. Or, you can expand to the Orlando area. If you really don't look forward to your vacations with DVC and feel somehow cheated in exchanges, then it would be time to consider selling for your own sake. Not as a punishment but as a final benefit --- we are still able to sell at a very good price.

 

[OneMoreTry]

Someone today told me they couldn't get a "home away from home" on the fairy tale package. We have to have a condo. So FTP wouldn't help us.

If I had planned on using disney hotels/motels I wouldn't have bought into DVC.

It's a good deal unless disney goes bust.

 

[JimC]

Based on the years that I have data for:

The price of points have averaged 4.6% annual increases (1991 to 2003).

Maintenance fees at OKW have averaged 3.1% annual increases (1992 to 2003).

Moderate resorts have averaged 5.5% annual increases (1992 to 2003).

CPI has averaged 2.6% annual increases (12/90 to 12/92).

If you bought DVC in 1993, locking in the cost of a point then and only increase the maintenance fees, the "total cost - fixed point cost plus maintenance fees" averaged 2.3% annual increases (1993 to 2003).

Even if you bought in 2003 and have a total point cost of $5.65 (the $84 divided by 39 years plus the current OKW maintenance fee) it gets you a one bedroom for a week in OKW during magic season (218 points) for an average cost per night of $158 (adjusting for the resort tax we do not pay). Let's compare that to the July AP discounted room rates pre resort tax) -- examples $159 OKW studio, $154 Conteporary standard garden wing, $165 Wilderness Lodge courtyard view, $190 AKL savannah view.

I believe there is still plenty of value. Is it as good as it was ten years ago? I don't know, but I do know that if I bought in 10 years ago my adjusted OKW one bedroom rate would be $126 for those 218 points instead of the $158 I used above for current purchasers. Well for $114, I could get an AKL or Wilderness Lodge standard room with my AP discount. I leave it to the reader to determine if that represents increasing, stagnant or declining value.

For me, that is why I think there still is value and likely to continue to be value.