Are availability tools reliable?

[smileyanna]

I am currently in ROFR for my first contract, and I've been looking at a DVC availability tool to continue my learning curve of what gets booked up when... I've been looking at the last week in November (right after Thanksgiving) which I thought was a prime DVC week and very tough to get, and is now falling into the 7 month booking zone.

Availability seems to fluctuate wildly from one day to another at least on the tool I am using. (Mostly for the better - MORE availability?!) The website says they only update the tool twice a day. So much variation seems highly unlikely. For the DVC vets - do things jump around a lot around booking deadlines? Why might availability get better (rather than tighter?)? And/or is this availability tool not accurate? I'm not looking for super accuracy, just a general idea of what things look like.

TIA.

 

[Sandisw]

The one reason we don’t allow people to post real time availability here is because it changes constantly and what is there today, could be gone tomorrow.

I have seen things change within the hour. The only thing you can count on is actual availability when you go to book.

Since you are looking at a very busy time, things are going to change as people adjust trips, cancel, or move around as plans finalize.

So, while those are accurate for the minute they posted, it could be very well outdated as soon as they do.

Now, trends can be gained…The bigger resorts may be more accurate than the near park resorts.

 

[smileyanna]

The one reason we don’t allow people to post real time availability here is because it changes constantly and what is there today, could be gone tomorrow.

I have seen things change within the hour. The only thing you can count on is actual availability when you go to book.

Since you are looking at a very busy time, things are going to change as people adjust trips, cancel, or move around as plans finalize.

So, while those are accurate for the minute they posted, it could be very well outdated as soon as they do.

Now, trends can be gained…The bigger resorts may be more accurate than the near park resorts.

That makes sense. The trends are all I am looking for right now.

In this case, it's a fairly big change overnight, with availability almost across the board including the near park resorts! Things also seem to have opened up over July and August too across lots of resorts. Not sure if this often happens or if there is something wonky with the website I am using.

 

[Sandisw]

There are threads that things may be glitching since things are there that shouldn’t be.

 

[smileyanna]

Ok, that's interesting! So there may be an underlying issue at DVC. (Follow up question: does that happen often and will the DVC website allow members to make glitchy reservations? and what happens then???)

 

[Sandisw]

Things happen with the website..but normally not to the extent that people find they have rooms that have to be canceled.

A few years ago they had it with VGC..and people who booked during it, we canceled out.

 

[RoseGold]

They used to work, but DVC broke them in the new update. I wouldn't rely on any of them.

 

[Her Dotness]

I've been looking at the last week in November (right after Thanksgiving) which I thought was a prime DVC week and very tough to get, and is now falling into the 7 month booking zone.

While I agree with the pp that availability trackers are worthless, it might actually be showing a bookings shift from about then and the first few weeks in December to the first two this May.

Those December weeks used to be among the least points gobbling ones of the year. Now, it's the first two of May.

Until we bought a VGF resale, we were doomed to those May weeks due to points poverty.

Newbie DVCers often are unaware that points costs per week can be shifted to other parts of the year. That they are forced us to buy a 25pt contract a mere 2 years after we bought in. We could no longer afford a week in a studio at the time of year we prefer unless we went every other year. (Do people really do that? )

 

[kes601]

]

There are threads that things may be glitching since things are there that shouldn’t be.

I'd be curious what the https://unlockedmagic.com/ availability showed in terms of number of rooms available (like is it 1 room, 2 rooms, 1500 rooms) in the room types as I know that is a feature it is supposed to have. Unfortunately I am not interested in subscribing to it.

ETA: the rooms that stand out to me in terms of availability in Jul / Aug are the Savannah Studio at Kidani and the Lake View Studio at BLT. Kidani, I wonder if they had taken a handful of rooms out of inventory since they were doing the roof work (and who knows what else). Perhaps that wrapped up earlier than expected and they put them back in to inventory. The other interesting piece with Kidani, which is what makes me think maybe it was rooms that had been held back due to the ongoing exterior refurb is that they don't become available until July 1, whereas the others are Jun 27.

BLT, I don't know of any refurb work, but it's possible a couple of rooms were taken out for emergency repairs and put back into inventory. This would account for the every day availability that popped up the other day for May through August (with May / June now gone due to the presumed breakage).

 

[DonMacGregor]

I've been looking at the last week in November (right after Thanksgiving) which I thought was a prime DVC week and very tough to get, and is now falling into the 7 month booking zone.

Availability seems to fluctuate wildly from one day to another at least on the tool I am using. (Mostly for the better - MORE availability?!)

That time of year is also rife with walkers. That can open up a day/days that was/were unavailable 24 hours earlier...

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I would also add that you’re looking right at 7mo mark— so it’s possible you’re seeing people cancel their home resort when they get in at Aulani/Riviera/VGC, etc.

 

[smileyanna]

Thanks for all the responses!

FWIW, following up with @Sandisw 's comment that there might be something strange and atypical going on right now, there is a current thread on the DVC member services forum that is discussing the availability

https://www.disboards.com/threads/availability-weirdness.3917459/

 

[kes601]

You can also check out this thread:

https://www.disboards.com/threads/no-dvc-rooms-week-of-june-17-24.3917566/

 

[smileyanna]

You can also check out this thread:

https://www.disboards.com/threads/no-dvc-rooms-week-of-june-17-24.3917566/

That's a very helpful thread. Good stuff for a DVC newbie: "breakage inventory" and advice to call member services to check for unlisted inventory if you have points in holding.

 

[crisi]

That's a very helpful thread. Good stuff for a DVC newbie: "breakage inventory" and advice to call member services to check for unlisted inventory if you have points in holding.

Have realistic expectations about "breakage inventory" and the ability to pull back rooms. The vast majority of reports are that member services has been unable to pull back the rooms that you see on CRO - the majority of rooms appearing there are, in fact, not rooms available to members - they are owned by Disney or the member has traded out to cruise or for some other use (it helps some people to think that they are using that room - just on a cruise ship). Its the exception when those rooms are breakage inventory. If you think about it, there isn't that much breakage inventory - that's points that someone is going to waste and few DVC members just waste their points. With DVC you want to book your vacation early - the earlier the better.

 

[kristenrice]

]

I'd be curious what the https://unlockedmagic.com/ availability showed in terms of number of rooms available (like is it 1 room, 2 rooms, 1500 rooms) in the room types as I know that is a feature it is supposed to have. Unfortunately I am not interested in subscribing to it.

ETA: the rooms that stand out to me in terms of availability in Jul / Aug are the Savannah Studio at Kidani and the Lake View Studio at BLT. Kidani, I wonder if they had taken a handful of rooms out of inventory since they were doing the roof work (and who knows what else). Perhaps that wrapped up earlier than expected and they put them back in to inventory. The other interesting piece with Kidani, which is what makes me think maybe it was rooms that had been held back due to the ongoing exterior refurb is that they don't become available until July 1, whereas the others are Jun 27.

BLT, I don't know of any refurb work, but it's possible a couple of rooms were taken out for emergency repairs and put back into inventory. This would account for the every day availability that popped up the other day for May through August (with May / June now gone due to the presumed breakage).

I subscribe to the website you mentioned and their tracker is updated twice a day (I believe) and I found it very helpful. I was booking a 2BR at Kidani for this fall and trying to decide between a dedicated and lock-off. I saw that there were far fewer dedicated rooms available so that is what we decided to book. Fortunately, we were able to get one because during our week, one night only had 3 left when I booked.

 

[DVC Newb '23]

I subscribe to the website you mentioned and their tracker is updated twice a day (I believe) and I found it very helpful. I was booking a 2BR at Kidani for this fall and trying to decide between a dedicated and lock-off. I saw that there were far fewer dedicated rooms available so that is what we decided to book. Fortunately, we were able to get one because during our week, one night only had 3 left when I booked.

Does that site show you exactly how many rooms are available in each category for each night?

 

[DonMacGregor]

Does that site show you exactly how many rooms are available in each category for each night?

None of them do.

 

[DVC Newb '23]

None of them do.

I wonder how she knew there were only 3 left when she booked?

 

[kes601]

None of them do.

The one she is referencing apparently actually does. It only updates 2x a day so obviously isn't 100% accurate, but they've somehow figured out how to parse the data from the DVC results to figure out how many rooms are available. I'll never pay for it though, I think it is wrong to profit off of that.