Are "After Hours" and "Early Morning Magic" Cutting Into Regular Hours?-Analytics (Long)

[Mikie]

I'll be very interested so see how they handle price increases as the new lands open.

Despite some people on the boards suggesting that current increases are to help pay for upcoming attractions, I am sure Disney will be able to suppress their altruistic nature and continue to raise prices in the face of stagnant wages.

Yes, I am not at all optimistic that this year's dramatic price increases will "pay for" the big new lands opening. I'm pessimistically sure they will hike again when Star Wars, Toy Story, Pandora open - come see (and pay 15% more for) all our new stuff!

 

[WillAustin]

Yes, I am not at all optimistic that this year's dramatic price increases will "pay for" the big new lands opening. I'm pessimistically sure they will hike again when Star Wars, Toy Story, Pandora open - come see (and pay 15% more for) all our new stuff!

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the new lands bring the ticket prices in those parks up to wherever the MK price is at the time. At this point, I'd probably be more surprised if they didn't do that.

 

[Lucius Best]

The biggest issue to me is not necessarily operating hours (weird since I spent a lot of time discussing them ). It's the choice to cut employee hours that directly impact guests. An example is running a ride a half capacity before 10 AM to save the $9/HR cast member cost. It's one of those things that looks like an increased margin on paper, but the possible negative impact of that can not be immediately seen...Hopefully this doesn't carry on long enough to have a meaningful impact. Time will tell.

This is all eerily similar to changes my local Six Flags went through. In its heyday, the park used to open at 10am (which seems late compared to Disney, but was actually early). We would get there for 10am rope drop, go straight to Superman, and ride it 4-8 times in the first hour the park was open. They'd have one train running but would quickly add the second train when a line started forming. It was great, I got annual passes every year and made multiple trips.

Around 2008, Six Flags started with the cost cutting. Park hours were reduced, or "non-additioned", now the park opened at noon. And at rope drop, Superman was typically still going through testing. And when they finally started letting people on at 12:15pm, there were only two kids checking restraints instead of four, so it took twice as long to board. The second train sat there collecting cobwebs. Sometimes we'd ride Superman once, get off at 12:30pm, and the line was already 45 minutes. Go to the free fall ride instead and only one drop tower operating. Go get lunch and it's $9 for a McDonald's quality burger and fries. Go back to Superman in the afternoon and it's broken down.

We started going to Six Flags less, and eventually stopped completely. My fondest memories of Six Flags are those days we got there early and got to ride the coasters multiple times in a row before the park got crowded. And later in the day, lines were long but constantly moved forward because rides were properly staffed and running at full capacity. I'm sure someone on the business side decided that was a waste of money. Disappointing to see highly-profitable Disney adopt the same cost-cutting changes utilized by Six Flags when it was on the verge of bankruptcy.

 

[bbjunkie]

This is interesting. I'm all about trends so I'll be watching to see if this continues. I do agree that less hours will cause more crowded conditions assuming attendance stays the same. That's simple logic.

Not exactly. With the significantly increased hours at AK, it could very well offset the crowding and decreased hours at MK. A six hour increase there is HUGE. These stats don't take any of that into consideration. The attendance overall may very well be the same, but a significant chunk of that crowd may be at Animal Kingdom.

 

[bbjunkie]

I assume that most of the lost hours come at the end of the day. It will be interesting to see what becomes of DAH. At least for most of April and much of May, people were able to buy back three hours per week. So far, nothing is on the books for June, so lost hours are lost hours. And DAH is certainly not to blame, so the money grab conspiracy theorists can douse their torches and put away their pitchforks. But perhaps the decrease in hours without any ability to buy them back is even more pernicious.

I honestly think they are waiting to expand June hours at MK until they see how crowds are disbursed with the significant increase in hours at AK. At this point they can only speculate the crowd differences. I think it's entirely possible that we won't see increases in second-half June evening hours until a couple of weeks after the evening hours and activities are open at AK.

 

[Boski]

Not exactly. With the significantly increased hours at AK, it could very well offset the crowding and decreased hours at MK. A six hour increase there is HUGE. These stats don't take any of that into consideration. The attendance overall may very well be the same, but a significant chuck of that crowd may be at Animal Kingdom.

It won't hurt but how much it helps is anyone's guess. And we probably won't know the full effect until they get RoLs up and running at 100% and Pandora. I think before then, to a good number of people, AK is still a half day park....its just now they'll be able to pick either morning or evening as opposed to now where everyone leaves in the early afternoon after touring in the AM.

 

[dlavender]

Taking a revised look at June YOY:

June 1-30th 2012 - 426 Included hours + 35 EMH= 461 (Wow, EMH)
June 1-30th 2013 - 431 Included hours + 13 EMH = 444
June 1-30th 2014 - 461 Included hours + 11 EMH = 472
June 1-30th 2015 - 469 Included hours + 12 EMH = 481
June 1-30th 2016 - 425 Included hours + 14 EMH = 439

I don't have the data for monthly attendance numbers, and going by daily average x's 30 days won't be terribly accurate. However, knowing that attendance increased YOY (with possibly the exception of this June vs last June), it is kind of astonishing that June 2016 could potentially (bolded on purpose), have the least amount of operating hours in 5 years. If I get more time, I'll throw in more years.

 

[JimmyV]

it is kind of astonishing that June 2016 could potentially (bolded on purpose), have the least amount of operating hours in 5 years.

This really calls into question the whole notion that revenue increases as "person hours in the park" increases. We know that Disney is trying to increase Parks and Resorts revenue. That much is certain. Are the bean counters now telling us that Disney makes more money the less time people stay in the parks? Wouldn't this undermine the entire premise of MM+ and the reasoning behind the patent applications? Or is Disney finding out that it makes more money when it pushes people out of the parks and into other venues? Maybe that was the brilliance of MM+. Do a couple of rides, leave, and spend your money elsewhere. At some point, a group of people have had this discussion in a conference room in Burbank. I'd love to know what they concluded.

 

[dlavender]

Last one, I promise. All the data I have, or feel like looking for

June 1-30th 2011 - 439 Included hours + 36 EMH = 475 (Wow, EMH)
June 1-30th 2012 - 426 Included hours + 35 EMH= 461 (Wow, EMH)
June 1-30th 2013 - 431 Included hours + 13 EMH = 444
June 1-30th 2014 - 461 Included hours + 11 EMH = 472
June 1-30th 2015 - 469 Included hours + 12 EMH = 481
June 1-30th 2016 - 425 Included hours + 14 EMH = 439

EMH used to be fantastic! I can't even imagine being on these boards from 2012-2013. I would have flipped!! LOL!

Looking at it quickly, I would say in 2013 they tried to cut EMH to possibly save money (not possibly, definitely). Then in 2014, possibly after complaints or other feedback, they decided to put those EMH hours back in the form of included hours. They did the same in 2015, even adding more included hours. Then this year, they may be testing a return to 2013 (but even a little more aggressive). Perhaps their MM+ data is showing them that this is possible? As I've learned, customers look different in person than they do on a spreadsheet.....Perhaps we should expect a large increase for June 2017, time to start a PTR!

 

[TreyQ3]

Taking a revised look at June YOY:

June 1-30th 2012 - 426 Included hours + 35 EMH= 461 (Wow, EMH)
June 1-30th 2013 - 431 Included hours + 13 EMH = 444
June 1-30th 2014 - 461 Included hours + 11 EMH = 472
June 1-30th 2015 - 469 Included hours + 12 EMH = 481
June 1-30th 2016 - 425 Included hours + 14 EMH = 439

Thanks for this info! So the EMH aren't changing, it's the base park hours that are reducing.

I have listened to several podcasts (I know - one step up from what the bus driver told us last month!) say that attendance may be soft this summer due to the Brazilian economy downturn and the effect of families postponing their WDW vacations until the new lands open. Could this be the cause of the reduced hours? A simple balancing of supply & demand?

Putting on my MBA nerd hat - I still don't understand how Shanghai is the cause of expense cuts. Unless a company has a cash flow problem (which Disney is not), then capital overruns have little to no effect on expense actions. The company I work for currently has a hiring freeze but is accelerating capital spending. IMO, Shanghai is a red herring. Now the cord cutting impact at ESPN is another story.

 

[Mikie]

This really calls into question the whole notion that revenue increases as "person hours in the park" increases. We know that Disney is trying to increase Parks and Resorts revenue. That much is certain. Are the bean counters now telling us that Disney makes more money the less time people stay in the parks? Wouldn't this undermine the entire premise of MM+ and the reasoning behind the patent applications? Or is Disney finding out that it makes more money when it pushes people out of the parks and into other venues? Maybe that was the brilliance of MM+. Do a couple of rides, leave, and spend your money elsewhere. At some point, a group of people have had this discussion in a conference room in Burbank. I'd love to know what they concluded.

Agreed. One potential different scenario, though, is that not all hours are created equal. Perhaps more people hours in the park equals more revenue only for certain hours of the day. Possibly the first or last hours bring less revenue per person but are equally costly so they're trying to play with shaving (or charging separately for) those hours.

Not sure this is a strong possibility, though, because no matter what time you open and close, something is always the "first" and "last" hour. If those hours have unique revenue characteristics, I'm not sure whether moving them from midnight to 10 pm changes their unique properties or actually causes the retention of a "last hour" with its unique properties and eliminates a "middle hour" with its spending averages. . .

Would definitely love to know more background numbers and be a fly on that conference room wall.

 

[tlmadden73]

This really calls into question the whole notion that revenue increases as "person hours in the park" increases. We know that Disney is trying to increase Parks and Resorts revenue. That much is certain. Are the bean counters now telling us that Disney makes more money the less time people stay in the parks? Wouldn't this undermine the entire premise of MM+ and the reasoning behind the patent applications? Or is Disney finding out that it makes more money when it pushes people out of the parks and into other venues? Maybe that was the brilliance of MM+. Do a couple of rides, leave, and spend your money elsewhere. At some point, a group of people have had this discussion in a conference room in Burbank. I'd love to know what they concluded.

My guess, is that they've probably figured out that the late night hours are more costly.
I have no data, but I would think that the late night crowd (10:00 PM and later) doesn't spend a lot of money. It's late, and less crowded, so more than likely those people are there to just to see fireworks and go on rides with little to no wait .. NOT shop or eat (why eat that late . .and why waste time shopping when there are no lines at attractions?)

So WDW has to staff to stay open to midnight or later, but does it really increase revenue if there isn't as many people there and those people aren't buying/eating like the pre-10:00 PM crowds do?

I think they also figured out that EMH costs them money too. Having to staff and have the "lights on" at the park during those hours doesn't bring much extra revenue. What percentage of guests book on-site EXCLUSIVELY because of the EMH perk? (probably not many).

I am not saying that is the RIGHT call .. as guest happiness is sometimes greater than the almighty dollar in the LONG run.

I've said it here before ..
My guess is they will slowly decrease EMH (slowly bleed it away so there isn't bad press) .. and slowly increase these morning and night events and probably replace the EMH resort perk with something else (a 4th Fast Pass for resort guests? A discount to the events for resort guests?
(or just eliminate it altogether (pay more, get less that we've been seeing)).

 

[JimmyV]

Last one, I promise.

I'll give you one more. Here is June, 2009 when the economy was in the dumper:
June 1-30th 2009 - 423 Included hours + 33 EMH = 456 (Wow, EMH)

So Included hours (posted) for 2016 are pretty much the same as 2009. The stunning difference is the treatment of EMH-p.m. Back in 2009, they happened twice a week without fail, were three hours long each, without fail, and ended at 2:00 a.m. three times and 3:00 a.m. twice. For folks who insist that EMHs aren't really the same as DAH, I would direct you back to 2009. When the EMHs ran until 2:00 a.m. or 3:00 a.m., they really were pretty much on par with what DAH offers now.

 

[JimmyV]

My guess, is that they've probably figured out that the late night hours are more costly.
I have no data, but I would think that the late night crowd (10:00 PM and later) doesn't spend a lot of money.

Probably a good guess. But there is a solution to increasing revenue after 10:00 p.m.:

 

[dlavender]

I'll give you one more. Here is June, 2009 when the economy was in the dumper:
June 1-30th 2009 - 423 Included hours + 33 EMH = 456 (Wow, EMH)

So Included hours (posted) for 2016 are pretty much the same as 2009. The stunning difference is the treatment of EMH-p.m. Back in 2009, they happened twice a week without fail, were three hours long each, without fail, and ended at 2:00 a.m. three times and 3:00 a.m. twice. For folks who insist that EMHs aren't really the same as DAH, I would direct you back to 2009. When the EMHs ran until 2:00 a.m. or 3:00 a.m., they really were pretty much on par with what DAH offers now.

And you could stay at a moderate for $90/night and enjoy all those EMH's......

Now its $190/night, with a 1/3 of the hours. Wish I could go back and really enjoy what we had! Quick turn around in 7 years.

I'm hoping, selfishly, that the results of the reduced crowds/reduced hours, increased ticket prices result in reduced spending. A decline in revenue will help reverse these practices.

I don't think Frozen and AK at night without ROL is going to really boost attendance. Early results seem to also indicate that. If revenue declines in this quarter, I think Disney will rethink their strategy. At least until Star Wars open. Then the Mouse will have gained back control over the market, and could probably open MK 9-5 everyday without hurting anything. (besides my feelings)

 

[Angel Ariel]

Last one, I promise. All the data I have, or feel like looking for

June 1-30th 2011 - 439 Included hours + 36 EMH = 475 (Wow, EMH)
June 1-30th 2012 - 426 Included hours + 35 EMH= 461 (Wow, EMH)
June 1-30th 2013 - 431 Included hours + 13 EMH = 444
June 1-30th 2014 - 461 Included hours + 11 EMH = 472
June 1-30th 2015 - 469 Included hours + 12 EMH = 481
June 1-30th 2016 - 425 Included hours + 14 EMH = 439

EMH used to be fantastic! I can't even imagine being on these boards from 2012-2013. I would have flipped!! LOL!

Looking at it quickly, I would say in 2013 they tried to cut EMH to possibly save money (not possibly, definitely). Then in 2014, possibly after complaints or other feedback, they decided to put those EMH hours back in the form of included hours. They did the same in 2015, even adding more included hours. Then this year, they may be testing a return to 2013 (but even a little more aggressive). Perhaps their MM+ data is showing them that this is possible? As I've learned, customers look different in person than they do on a spreadsheet.....Perhaps we should expect a large increase for June 2017, time to start a PTR!

yeah, the EMH decrease is really substantial. A while ago I did a compare/contrast of our honeymoon trip in July 2006 to what it would be that same week now in 2016, and the # of EMH on the schedule now in 2016 was less than half of what it was in 2006. And yet our hotel (the grand floridian) had almost doubled in cost/night. It was very disheartening to see the comparison.

 

[21stamps]

And you could stay at a moderate for $90/night and enjoy all those EMH's......

Now its $190/night, with a 1/3 of the hours. Wish I could go back and really enjoy what we had! Quick turn around in 7 years.

I'm hoping, selfishly, that the results of the reduced crowds/reduced hours, increased ticket prices result in reduced spending. A decline in revenue will help reverse these practices.

I don't think Frozen and AK at night without ROL is going to really boost attendance. Early results seem to also indicate that. If revenue declines in this quarter, I think Disney will rethink their strategy. At least until Star Wars open. Then the Mouse will have gained back control over the market, and could probably open MK 9-5 everyday without hurting anything. (besides my feelings)

I haven't researched this, but I wonder if that could have to do with the difference in economy in those years mentioned and the improved economy today.

 

[tlmadden73]

I don't think Frozen and AK at night without ROL is going to really boost attendance. Early results seem to also indicate that. If revenue declines in this quarter, I think Disney will rethink their strategy. At least until Star Wars open. Then the Mouse will have gained back control over the market, and could probably open MK 9-5 everyday without hurting anything. (besides my feelings)

I think a LOT of people (especially the "go every year" crowd on these boards) delayed their trips to the late summer/fall because of the uncertainty of the release of these new attractions. But I agree, I don't think those new minor attractions will help this year, as some may be just delaying a trip even longer.
Honestly I feel a lot of people heard the announcement for Toy Story and Star Wars land (one would argue the hype is bigger for those than Pandora) and just said "We'll go back when those open up" ..... in 2020. (I mean it took how long to build some parking structures and an outdoor shopping mall for Disney Springs?)

Those same people may be skipping WDW altogether to go check out that other park with two new (quickly built) attractions in Diagon Alley and King Kong and new ones coming (Fast and Furious, Jimmy Fallon) probably well before Star Wars Land and Toy Story land.

I mean you would expect DHS is just going to get worse next year .. eventually Star Tours and TSMM will have to close for an extended amount of time to incorporate them into the new lands. And then what?

 

[JimmyV]

I don't think Frozen and AK at night without ROL is going to really boost attendance.

No how, no way are those two things going to boost attendance this summer. Especially when opening dates are so malleable. The best that can be said is that Frozen and AK at Night will have a propensity to redistribute crowds. But increase attendance? No shot.

 

[lovethattink]

No how, no way are those two things going to boost attendance this summer. Especially when opening dates are so malleable. The best that can be said is that Frozen and AK at Night will have a propensity to redistribute crowds. But increase attendance? No shot.

I think it will boost local and AP attendance. We have much more flexibility of dates. And I noticed the last few resort offers to come out were identical in AP and FL resident rates. In the past FL Resident rate has usually been 5% less of a discount.

I know I'm excited for Frozen and AK at Night!!!! I'm not near as excited about the new Soarin' film though.