AP sales…

[Robbie Cottam]

And I predict a huge surge in DVC listings. Imagine if even 10% of people decided to sell. DVC direct sales would be screwed.

I think you over estimate the number of DVC members that do more than one 10 day trip a year…

 

[Disney mac]

I think you over estimate the number of DVC members that do more than one 10 day trip a year…

I think a lot have always tried to do 2 trips in a 365 day period to enter parks. I agree a lot won’t do anything, but everyone I know is starting to get fed up and thinking about selling.
We will either sell off our contract or use it to stay there and just get universal AP…I know it has become difficult to justify the 450 points we have. So may sell of 2 of the contracts (if I can) and just keep the main one. Sorry Disney…

 

[ars13]

I think you over estimate the number of DVC members that do more than one 10 day trip a year…

I get where that number comes from but it’s not accurate for everyone - you could also go by how many trips you make.

I like to go for quick 3-5 day trips where I only go into the park 2 or so days. I figure going to Disney on my points 3 times (2 park days) a year just about covers the sorcerers pass. Add in the fact that I get free parking and park hopping ability and it’s definitely worth it.

 

[jo-jo]

I think a lot have always tried to do 2 trips in a 365 day period to enter parks. I agree a lot won’t do anything, but everyone I know is starting to get fed up and thinking about selling.
We will either sell off our contract or use it to stay there and just get universal AP…

That was our game plan. Last year we did 9 days in April, had planned a two week trip in Dec but needed to cancel , and just did a 8 day trip two days before AP was up. We aren't renewing because of health concerns (aside from anything covid) but also we wouldn't take a trip for 7 months. Doesn't make sense to start the clock ticking and still not sure we were would even take the trip in Dec..

 

[New Mouse]

https://**************.net/2021/12/disney-remove-lawsuit-annual-passholders-ab1/

i bet is has more to do with this…
someone didn’t read the fine print, got there feelings hurt, and is now suing…. until this is resolved I bet you won’t see AP come back

If you are certain it's just because they didn't read the fine print then why are ap sales suspended? Disney fears they might lose and until they know for sure they don't want to risk it.... aka....the fine print was false advertising.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Yes I do multiple trips a year and when all my DVC points are gone I stay on Hilton points at the LBV palace, and then at the swan .... So yes, I get it.... I sent an extra 1800 dollars on day passes for my son last year when I could not renew his ap just mine... Long story

However with the average 75 to 150 point contract you going for one 5 day trip or maybe two 4 days trips....
Two four day passes is less money than a sorcerer unless it is a renewal.....

At any rate.

Disney is kinda a weird position right now.
The have lots of unused over seas DVC points that were extended by a double banking thing.... Those point will not expire until the end of 2022.... DVC resort are full in the slow times.... Normally a good problem to have. But not in this case.

They have record numbers of people that have been hiding in their basement for the last two years that need to get out. They could not stand their families before Covid, Have spent 2 years in a small box with them, and now need to do something... so why not go to the angriest place on earth.

I lot of US DVC member were able to bank there points into 2021 or mid way into 22 so there is that demand too.

Annual passes are a loss leader. Lets face it I spent an extra 1800 to get day passes....
So when there is high demand I can understand why they want to capture all that they can.... and not sell AP. They need to do something about the stock being down over almost 80 dollars.

The parks are Covid Packed but still not at pre covid capacity (as least as recent as march 7th) Let be honest, Just because I have had 3 shorts doesn't mean everyone else has.... I don't want to be packed in like sardines with an anti-vaxer and there 4 coughing and sneezing kids without some wiggle room.... Sorry, actually not sorry. I believe in modern medicine if you don't Let me introduce you to my friend Darwin.

At any rate, Capacity is limited, and you have a lot of EU travels finally able to return. Can you see the mess if they couldn't get reservation because all the annual pass people showed up.... it would be another 90 plus page thread...

Until all or most of the surplus DVC points are consumed, normal demand isn't artificially high, and the park are back to full pool. It is not in Disney best interest to sell AP. It also isn't in anyone else's. I know some people go to DVC and never enter the parks... I get it. But if you are planning a trip, planning spending days in the park but can't because the AP have taken all the spots you're going to be pretty upset.

So since speculation is the magic of the DIS board.... When do I think AP will resume...... hopefully before Nov 12.... ask me when my next trip is..... Realistically, 1/1/2023....

Oh and as pointed out in a prior post..... Someone in CA sued Disney when she could not get a park reservation for her Magic Keys... Instead of suing for her $1000 dollars back, she is suing for $5 million... On behalf of all Magic Key holders.. most of whom I'm sure are still using there park passes happily.

If you are certain it's just because they didn't read the fine print then why are ap sales suspended? Disney fears they might lose and until they know for sure they don't want to risk it.... aka....the fine print was false advertising.

To be clear AP sales aren't suspended New Sale are, I renewed mine last week. But to answer you question. CA is in the 9th Circuit no one ever knows what they are going to do. Why would a company open themselves up to potentially more liability.

If you remember Disney was selling annual passes post covid and stopped with out warning. They stopped 11 days after this lady filed her suit. Coincidence? Maybe? You decide.

Normally I call it SWAG but there is no science to this one.... my WAG is that before annual passes return
(Scientific Wild A Guess)
1. demand needs to drop mid-week and off season,
2. the banked covid DVD points need to be used up,
3. park capacity need to return to almost pre covid normal
4. that law suit need to get dismissed or settled favorably

IMHO, I await you thoughts

 

[DebbieB]

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/27/3-disney-world-predictions-you-wont-see-coming/

Many DVC members would be screwed, including myself. I typically get 3 trips out of an AP.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/27/3-disney-world-predictions-you-wont-see-coming/

Many DVC members would be screwed, including myself. I typically get 3 trips out of an AP.

YES, ME TOO
to the tune of 1800 dollars last year luckily the timing worked out that I was able to renew mine or it would have been double

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

I

Motley Fool made some predictions. Their analysis didn't include a bunch of factors.

I have made a "WAG". The 2nd Quarter numbers, expected on May 11th could be good - it covers the period from January 1 to March 31, 2022 and we know the parks were jam packed for most of that time. I don't personally know about streaming and the vast other factors. But, the parks performance is most predictive of restoring annual pass sales.

We "might" see an announcement about a week or so before the Q3 2022 results come out (about August 11th). I will be watching the dates around August 3rd. Sales "might" begin September 7th; after the Labor Day crowds go home.

If it doesn't happen about that timeframe, then further delays might be impacted by:

(1) The "revenge" travel surge -- due to banked DVC points, relaxing international travel standards, post-pandemic domestic travel demand etc. (In other words the parks and hotels are still operating very full.)​

(2) Slow recovery for hiring local employees (housing and rent prices are exploding in the Orlando market). They also need to deal with better engineering, maintenance and the issue of frequent ride breakdowns.​

(3) Some main crowd eater venues are still not back online (Including the trams.)​

(4) Tron previews and opening gets moved to 2023 .​

(5) The key issues surrounding the improvement district are not close to resolution.​

(6) A recession has not yet impacted park demands.​

(7) The California passholder litigation is not close to being resolved. Both parties have demanded a jury trial.​

​

So, this is a very light "might" forecast. There are a lot of potholes. The Motley Fool predicted significant price increases. I think we can all foresee that coming. I think it could be quite a price hike! Motley Fool predicted Disney might get rid of the "buffet" of types of passes and only offer two types of passes; the lowest Pixie Dust type that is limited to weekdays and excludes holidays, and something like the Incredi-Pass. I don't have that much feel for the types of pass, but I think it might be on Disney's mind to block out spring break, Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays from all passholders. Motley Fool talked about the current price of $399 for the Pixie (and predicted a large price increase for all passes) but said the top pass might be 4(+) times that amount. I think it will go more than that. I am thinking that top pass could be hanging around $2,000. That is just about 2 1/4 days a month at the rate they sell Florida MYW tickets on specials for the Florida die hard fan who is not satisfied with the weekday and no holidays pass -- and they get weekends and minor holidays. In other words, it would take about 15 days a year at regular prices (without a special) to make it break even. That's where the huge inflation is going to bite; in the number of days it takes to make that pass break even. However, they might do something like sell their DVC guests a certain daily rate for length of stay passes.

Motley Fool also indicated they might get rid of the park reservation system. Apparently Disney has made statements that they developed that in part to accommodate guest complaints. If that is true, they might also get rid of it based on guest complaints. If they did only have two types of passes, they might regulate the flow of visitors by selling tickets that have specific park specials. There are many options for them. Park reservations was only one. If other parks in the industry are relaxing reservation standards, Disney could as well. They do still have DVC units on the books and many to sell. Annual Passes are a big, selling draw for the DVC units.

would have gladly bought my son the incredi-pass and still save 1400 dollars

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

https://**************.net/2021/12/disney-remove-lawsuit-annual-passholders-ab1/

i bet is has more to do with this…
someone didn’t read the fine print, got there feelings hurt, and is now suing…. until this is resolved I bet you won’t see AP come back

That lawsuit absolutely isn’t about “not reading the fine print.” People bought the highest level Disneyland AP passes, advertised as having “no blockout dates,” and then found that every reservation was unavailable for months at a time because the parks were “sold out” at the same time that Disney kept selling day tickets to people who walked up to the gate. The passes were functionally useless. As others have pointed out in this thread, that lawsuit has teeth, and what Disney did was incredibly deceptive.

 

[Sandisw]

That lawsuit absolutely isn’t about “not reading the fine print.” People bought the highest level Disneyland AP passes, advertised as having “no blockout dates,” and then found that every reservation was unavailable for months at a time because the parks were “sold out” at the same time that Disney kept selling day tickets to people who walked up to the gate. The passes were functionally useless. As others have pointed out in this thread, that lawsuit has teeth, and what Disney did was incredibly deceptive.

And the key to what you point out..IMO..is that they were still selling tickets to day guests.

Had they not done that and it had just been that the reservations were full, it would have matched the terms and conditions. It’s the blocking of an AP on a date not officially blocked out when there was obviously still park spots left.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

L

That lawsuit absolutely isn’t about “not reading the fine print.” People bought the highest level Disneyland AP passes, advertised as having “no blockout dates,” and then found that every reservation was unavailable for months at a time because the parks were “sold out” at the same time that Disney kept selling day tickets to people who walked up to the gate. The passes were functionally useless. As others have pointed out in this thread, that lawsuit has teeth, and what Disney did was incredibly deceptive.

If that is the case, then the trial will not last very long!

 

[nuhusky123]

L

If that is the case, then the trial will not last very long!

by Not long you mean years vs decades?

let’s not forget the appeal process. This won’t be over quickly unless settled

 

[Robbie Cottam]

by Not long you mean years vs decades?

let’s not forget the appeal process. This won’t be over quickly unless settled

No I was thinking that if that claim can be proven Disney would settle quickly with a non disclosure agreement…

But conversely, Disney has the records of all the Magic Key holder that were in the park on the days in question too…

 

[sndral]

This morning I received a survey link via email from Disney Destinations research about APs (I currently have one) but apparently they weren’t interested in my responses since after telling them I didn’t work in any of the industries listed & my zip code (west coast) they said - basically - never mind you aren’t the demographic we want to survey.

 

[Disney mac]

This morning I received a survey link via email from Disney Destinations research about APs (I currently have one) but apparently they weren’t interested in my responses since after telling them I didn’t work in any of the industries listed & my zip code (west coast) they said - basically - never mind you aren’t the demographic we want to survey.

But then they couldn’t give their “the people want to be charged more for less services” garbage they like to say.

 

[heynowirv]

This morning I received a survey link via email from Disney Destinations research about APs (I currently have one) but apparently they weren’t interested in my responses since after telling them I didn’t work in any of the industries listed & my zip code (west coast) they said - basically - never mind you aren’t the demographic we want to survey.

I got one of those to and when I responded that I work in health care was told the same thing.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

,

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

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