Anyone know why it's so busy right now?

[lentesta]

DUDE!!!! My first AK day went from a predicted 2 to an 8!!!! I too had tracked historical days and they are usually so much closer, this month was SO WRONG and I don't get it!

We should have done better on that. I apologize. That 2-to-8 at AK on 1/18/2018 was the worst miss we've had since at least late 2015. And the park has been busier than we expected, by about 2 points on our calendar.

We've updated the AK models to account for two things: Flight of Passage is proving to be far more popular for longer than most new headliner attractions; and we think Disney may have adjusted the capacities of other rides in the park, knowing that more people were staying around Pandora.

At this time last year, Pandora wasn't open. And Flight of Passage is still the highest-rated ride of any Disney or Universal theme park in the US. The models sometimes aren't good at predicting based on things they haven't seen before. Hopefully what we've adjusted should help with that.

 

[SarahC97]

We should have done better on that. I apologize. That 2-to-8 at AK on 1/18/2018 was the worst miss we've had since at least late 2015. And the park has been busier than we expected, by about 2 points on our calendar.

We've updated the AK models to account for two things: Flight of Passage is proving to be far more popular for longer than most new headliner attractions; and we think Disney may have adjusted the capacities of other rides in the park, knowing that more people were staying around Pandora.

At this time last year, Pandora wasn't open. And Flight of Passage is still the highest-rated ride of any Disney or Universal theme park in the US. The models sometimes aren't good at predicting based on things they haven't seen before. Hopefully what we've adjusted should help with that.

Thanks, Len. We know you guys work hard to be as accurate as possible. When will the crowd calendars begin to reflect the adjustments? I'm going next week and I've not received any updated park predictions from TP.

 

[Disneylovingmomof2]

We should have done better on that. I apologize. That 2-to-8 at AK on 1/18/2018 was the worst miss we've had since at least late 2015. And the park has been busier than we expected, by about 2 points on our calendar.

We've updated the AK models to account for two things: Flight of Passage is proving to be far more popular for longer than most new headliner attractions; and we think Disney may have adjusted the capacities of other rides in the park, knowing that more people were staying around Pandora.

At this time last year, Pandora wasn't open. And Flight of Passage is still the highest-rated ride of any Disney or Universal theme park in the US. The models sometimes aren't good at predicting based on things they haven't seen before. Hopefully what we've adjusted should help with that.

Any chance you could post updated levels for Feb??

 

[hllb]

We should have done better on that. I apologize. That 2-to-8 at AK on 1/18/2018 was the worst miss we've had since at least late 2015. And the park has been busier than we expected, by about 2 points on our calendar.

We've updated the AK models to account for two things: Flight of Passage is proving to be far more popular for longer than most new headliner attractions; and we think Disney may have adjusted the capacities of other rides in the park, knowing that more people were staying around Pandora.

At this time last year, Pandora wasn't open. And Flight of Passage is still the highest-rated ride of any Disney or Universal theme park in the US. The models sometimes aren't good at predicting based on things they haven't seen before. Hopefully what we've adjusted should help with that.

I'm a data geek myself. You have a great product, but no one expected January to be so consistently crowded! Good thing you have those great, customized touring plans!

 

[Elle23]

Ah, sorry. It was busier during your trip. CLs of 6 to 10, with multiple 10s.

Thanks. I knew our non-party MK night was a CL 10. I wasn’t sure about everything else.

Honestly, having been at a very crowded time, the amount of people really didn’t bother me, except during the Christmas party, when I paid $300 extra just to have the same crowd experience. We rode everything we wanted and didn’t miss out on anything because of the crowds.

What bothered me was Disney’s inability to really handle the crowds (the restrooms were filthy, tables at CS restaurants never got cleaned, parks weren't the cleanest, lousy service at TS restaurants, poor food quality, etc.) If Disney could figure that stuff out, I don’t think I’d ever really care about the amount of people. It’s all the other stuff that went with it that just made the trip less than “magical”.

We went in January of last year and it was a completely different, much more positive experience.

 

[Action City]

I would like to know, *** is up with the park being so empty at night???? I took this at 12:01 Saturday lol. Because by the time I got my camera out and turned the flash off, it moved a minute, darnit! But we were flabberghasted at the emptiness each late night. Disneyland is just not like that! These walkways that you could barely maneuver during the day were deserted. It was almost creepy! Is this how summer nights are? Sign me UP!

No, that wasn't how summer nights were this past summer, since the parks had a 10pm closing time throughout the summer.

 

[Action City]

Tour groups are only at the values.

They sometimes stay at some of the mods, too.

 

[Rach73]

Wow January crowds have been nuts. We will be there in 16 days, our week is Mardi Gras break and there is a Cheerleading thing going on. I wonder what crowd levels are going to actually be like? We were there for Thanksgiving this year and as we expected it was packed. We managed fine with a good plan and had an awesome time. Just curious how this trip is going to compare given recent CLs?

 

[Action City]

Wow January crowds have been nuts. We will be there in 16 days, our week is Mardi Gras break and there is a Cheerleading thing going on. I wonder what crowd levels are going to actually be like? We were there for Thanksgiving this year and as we expected it was packed. We managed fine with a good plan and had an awesome time. Just curious how this trip is going to compare given recent CLs?

Mardi Gras break is always crowded.

 

[LSUmiss]

Wow January crowds have been nuts. We will be there in 16 days, our week is Mardi Gras break and there is a Cheerleading thing going on. I wonder what crowd levels are going to actually be like? We were there for Thanksgiving this year and as we expected it was packed. We managed fine with a good plan and had an awesome time. Just curious how this trip is going to compare given recent CLs?

I have gone during Mardi Gras many different years going back to 2008 including last yr. It is always very crowed but not quite Thanksgiving week. I am going this yr too for Mardi Gras week. I expect heavy crowds. I personally know a good bit of ppl going.

 

[LSUmiss]

Worst week I ever went to WDW was the last week of Jan in 2014. It was cold & rainy, PACKED, full of tour groups & park hours were short. Was supposed to be a low crowd time & it was not!

 

[hllb]

Worst week I ever went to WDW was the last week of Jan in 2014. It was cold & rainy, PACKED, full of tour groups & park hours were short. Was supposed to be a low crowd time & it was not!

Your perception is interesting, because the CL reported for that week (Jan 25-31, 2014) were very low. Saturday was overall a 5, but the other days were 1,2,3, and 4.

 

[MDH]

Yes, that was the only one that was. TP had predicted a 1 for today at EP. I’m guessing it’ll end up a 4.

Was a 6. Touring plans have been completely off this week. Magic Kingdom 7 and 8s for office 4s. Rohit 6 instead of 1. I understand it's not an exact science, but talk about missing the mark completely.

 

[MDH]

Your perception is interesting, because the CL reported for that week (Jan 25-31, 2014) were very low. Saturday was overall a 5, but the other days were 1,2,3, and 4.

I was there that exact week. Was cold as hell that's for sure, but crowds Were LOW.

 

[SarahC97]

Was a 6. Touring plans have been completely off this week. Magic Kingdom 7 and 8s for office 4s. Rohit 6 instead of 1. I understand it's not an exact science, but talk about missing the mark completely.

And surely it's not a mystery to Disney that people are going to be showing up more than what is usual. If part of the problem is that they've not staffed the parks right, then why not?

 

[MDH]

One thing that is particularly frustrating is that even though rude times are high (star tours 70 minutes bring the lowest ride at Hollywood studios 2 hours ago) they are operating many rides at half capacity. They were only filling 1 bay per side on star tours. Space mountain yesterday 1 side

 

[LSUmiss]

Your perception is interesting, because the CL reported for that week (Jan 25-31, 2014) were very low. Saturday was overall a 5, but the other days were 1,2,3, and 4.

That’s interesting b/c I go to wdw multiple times a yr including summers, fall, spring break & nye (once) so it’s not like I’m not used to it being crowded. It wasn’t the most packed I have ever seen & all of the things I mentioned made it miserable not just the crowds. I do recall it was projected to be a 1-4 & that’s part of why we were so disappointed. To me it speaks to wdw just always being or feeling crowded now or b/c of cutting back on staff & hours in lower crowd periods. A 1-4 is better than 5-10, but not when you expect a 1-4. I’m never disappointed now b/c I use Fp well & pretty much expect an average of about a 7.

 

[Amanda999]

Wow January crowds have been nuts. We will be there in 16 days, our week is Mardi Gras break and there is a Cheerleading thing going on. I wonder what crowd levels are going to actually be like? We were there for Thanksgiving this year and as we expected it was packed. We managed fine with a good plan and had an awesome time. Just curious how this trip is going to compare given recent CLs?

I think you should expect larger crowds Mardis Gras week than this week or last week. TP already has 9/10 for HS on Fri/Sat, and some 10s Sun/Mon. Tue - Mardis Gras - 7s and 8s. Mass.'s public schools have the entire week off the next week (Presidents Day week). Many families I know leave early - will be there later part of Mardis Gras week. One family is going for a dance competition there; stay at POR.

 

[PDXmouse]

One thing that is particularly frustrating is that even though rude times are high (star tours 70 minutes bring the lowest ride at Hollywood studios 2 hours ago) they are operating many rides at half capacity. They were only filling 1 bay per side on star tours. Space mountain yesterday 1 side

This is VERY frustrating. It means Disney is not doing its job well. Either they’re very bad at crowd prediction or they’re purposefully being cheap about staffing.

 

[Linkura]

They sometimes stay at some of the mods, too.

Didn't know that. Thanks. That sucks.