Anyone else waiting to see if resale prices drop after March 20?

[GrazingGoat1966]

If the whole purpose of these changes is to "kill" the re-sale market, then there is one guarantee that you can take to the bank. If Disney start replenishing their points in existing DVC resorts, then why would they spend the cash and open any new resorts? I mean, if they start buying most if not all the points being resold through ROFR, then there will be literally millions of "existing" points being returned to DVC. New punters will be directed to buying those "rehashed" points as their first point of call, thereby excusing DVC from investing in new resorts.

 

[hollis]

"The contracts will lose value over time since they have an expiration date" that is so logical. I agree with most that there likely will not be a sharp drop right after March 20. Most also think it will decline over the next year or two. Hmm, that is very possible. But timeshare to a certain extent is real estate. There are ups and downs. When the economy is better, I think it will go back up some. Remember that 3 to 5 years ago, resale prices were way higher than the original purchase price from DVD back when OKW or BCV were first released. In the last couple of years, even before the recent "change in perks" announcement, resale prices have been steadily declining.

 

[erinna]

I don't think I understand the economics well enough to know if DVC prices will drop sharply, but, to answer the OP's question: Yes I will be watching to see if there's a "fire sale" period. If so, I would probably dip into my "kitchen remodel" savings account to buy additional points.

 

[disgrits]

You know, I've thought the same thing.
I honestly think this is DVC's way to squash the resale market.
I mean, it's been taking more and more business from them - not only in resales to new members - but in add-ons to current members.
We are 2-2 if out current contract in ROFR right now goes through.

We played fair - we contacted DVC first to get pricing on Hilton Head, so they had their chance to compete in the market - but we found what we wanted at less than 1/2 of what DVC was selling for - so there is no competition in that market.

I agree that this was mainly a move on DVC's part to scoop up more contracts in the ROFR process. The cheaper a contract is per point, the easier it is for them to buy - and then can make more off of it by selling it at nearly double the price they purchased it for.

So not only are they making an effort to increase their direct buy members - they are making great efforts to decrease the ability to buy from anyone other than them.

I can't say that it's unfair, I can't say that it's wrong, I can't say that is bad business. In fact, I can say that is fair - and it is a right business move that will in effect increase the overall value of being a DVC owner - no one gets in for less than $XXXXX.XX and no one get out for $XXXX.XX by letting someone else in for $XXXX.XX

DVC is closing the loop - it makes good business sense. PLUS the only people who are up in arms over it are the ones who are selling - so to Disney, they are a customer on their way out the door anyway.

Totally agree. They know that taking away a perk will make prices drop. Why would they bother exercising ROFR to buy back points and selling at a slim markup.

It costs nothing for DVD to change the policy, and it will save them alot in the end to buy back cheaper ROFR contracts. The change will also give the buyers out there more uncertainty (if more contracts are being ROFR'ed) and less of a choice---driving people back to purchasing from DVD.

Yes, we agree with this, too. I was just saying to my DH that to imagine "Big Brother" (aka DVC, DVD, or whichever Disney co it is) scooping up all those resales, and then selling them at double the price, saying, "Come my children, drink the kool-aid, buy the points, enjoy the ride!"

My DH says, "Yes and you will be first in line with your refillable mug, begging for more!" That man knows me so well! LOLOL!

 

[tjkraz]

I don't expect any immediate drops...certainly nothing dramatic.

A couple days ago when I looked, TTS had AKV contracts ranging from roughly $72 per point up to $85. If a seller feels justified in asking $80-85 now--when others are clearly lower--I don't expect that seller to automatically accept an offer in the $60s come March 21.

TTS has only 6 unsold SSR listings right now. Honestly those points are looking more and more UNDERpriced every day, IMO. I just don't see why a seller would buy into the idea that their points are instantly worth less, particularly when there is so little on the market.

 

[TisBit]

I don't see prices dropping a ton. This will be for a couple of reasons, but the main one is that people sell for a variety of reasons and mostly it is to get a cash value out of their contract. There is a break even point where it is better to keep it then to dump it for nothing. I think if someone was panicing about what would happen after the rule change, they would have dropped their prices already and dumped the contract now...so your fire sales have already happened. Second, if they fiananced and need to pay off their loan, they may not be able to sell any lower and have to ask a higher price. There is a point where walking away is better than taking a loss, if someone is in fianncial trouble they can't pay several thousand dollars just to unload a payment....again, keeping the contract would be more cost effective in the short term.

 

[donaldbuzz&minnie]

I'm wondering if Disney's next move will be to announce something like,
"Anyone with fewer than 160 points purchased from Disney may no longer receive the DVC annual pass ticket discount", etc. Once the new computer system goes in they will be able to easily segregate members who bought from them v. members who bought resale.

My guess is they will do anything they can to funnel people into buying from Disney, and will soon do that without regard to when you purchased your contracts. That's when resale prices will really start dropping.

 

[papertraveller]

Don't forget that purchasing on the ROFR market means using very valuable cash flow dollars that Disney could spend to much greater effect elsewhere.