Anyone else waiting to see if resale prices drop after March 20?

[deerislemaine]

We own 250 points (SSR) that we purchased resale. We're interested in more points, but we don't care about the reduced benefits. We're waiting to see if prices will drop after March 20th. Is anyone else waiting to see? Just another month to wait and see. Any educated guesses on what will happen?

 

[Dacky619]

We aren't really looking to add points, but I am curious to see what will happen to resale values. I'm sure we'll think about adding more at some point in the future, but we'll see if any other changes come to purchasing resale points.

 

[csharpwv]

We were considering adding on at Hilton Head before the announcement - so the announcement made us start shopping quickly!
We do want to use the added benefits of the 'full value' DVC points - we will be using points for ABD and Cruises at different points in the future, so we wanted to make sure we added on now.
We are getting a GREAT deal of a really nice sized contract at HHI - so I just hope that it passes ROFR - we are currently waiting to hear!

Please cross your fingers for us! HAHA

 

[treehugnmama]

we also added on once the announcement hit. I am curious to see what happens though

 

[nickspace]

My guess is that the value of the point will go down. The prices are already dropping and this will just speed the process a little more.

 

[SabresFan]

Personally, I'd be amazed if prices started dropping immediately following 3/20. If sellers were hanging on hoping for a better offer before 3/20, they're not suddenly going to give up and drop their price.

Over time, yes, this will depress prices, but I would expect it to take six months or more before you see the effect. Since a lot of inventory is going to move before 3/20, the available inventory after 3/20 will be artifically depleted, so you might actually see prices go UP for a brief period.

 

[pkitty]

If you need to sell....unfortunately....you need to sell and if they aren't gone prior to March 20 than you will get what you get on the open market. I am waiting to buy more points until after March 20 because I am not interested in the add-ons so why pay more for them? I will be watching contracts to see what I can get.

 

[deerislemaine]

If you need to sell....unfortunately....you need to sell and if they aren't gone prior to March 20 than you will get what you get on the open market. I am waiting to buy more points until after March 20 because I am not interested in the add-ons so why pay more for them? I will be watching contracts to see what I can get.

I tend to have the same logic. I agree with others that the market is artificially up in terms of inventory right now; however, I wonder if people will be willing to deal more after March 20th if they were not successful in selling. It looks like the contracts of 200 points or more are not moving more quickly than before.

 

[deerislemaine]

We were considering adding on at Hilton Head before the announcement - so the announcement made us start shopping quickly!
We do want to use the added benefits of the 'full value' DVC points - we will be using points for ABD and Cruises at different points in the future, so we wanted to make sure we added on now.
We are getting a GREAT deal of a really nice sized contract at HHI - so I just hope that it passes ROFR - we are currently waiting to hear!

Please cross your fingers for us! HAHA

Good luck with the ROFR!

 

[fers31]

We bought 2 contracts since they made the announcement. I'm just worried what ELSE they'll take away from the people who aren't grandfathered in.

 

[amberkow]

We own 250 points (SSR) that we purchased resale. We're interested in more points, but we don't care about the reduced benefits. We're waiting to see if prices will drop after March 20th. Is anyone else waiting to see? Just another month to wait and see. Any educated guesses on what will happen?

I thinking about picking up a resale contract at the end of the summer so I would be more than happy to see a drop off in price over the next couple months..

Personally I don't think they will drop to much in the short run, but over the next 6-12 months I think we will start to see a little bit of a decline.

 

[glokitty]

I predict that prices will drop $20 per point, and DVC will buy them up in ROFR.

 

[chepic]

I must have missed something....what is happening on 3/20?

Thanks

Cheryl

 

[mouseaider]

We just added a small add on contract. I really don't think the prices will drop.

But..... we can all sit back and see.

 

[sweetdana]

I'd have a hard time not adding on, if price of SSR went below 50$. I have a hard time not adding on at 62$ when it was there.. Not it looks like it is up to almost 70$ based on people jumping on the bank wagon.

Currently I split our 9 day trip between studio and 1 bedroom, price is the only reason. .. For not too much more I would add another 100 points and make it a 1 bedroom the whole time.

Based on the limited supply, due to a whole cucket of rush buyers, I do not see it dropping much for a # of months. I also think places like BLT and where other new resorts are will instantly be reduced dramatically, (the ones holding higher values) will be more effected. IE SSR was down to 62$ a point or about 50$ less than direct, I am not sure 50$ will make someone buy new, maybe a drop... . .. But BLT at 95$, I think more will consider buying direct if it is not too much more. IE you only need to spend 20 - 30$ more and you can use your points to cruise and be garenteed nothing will change later.

 

[palaemon]

My only, only, only concern is if I buy resale after March 20th, then they strip things more based on that date.

If any further changes aren't retroactive to that date, then giving up those perks doesn't bother me.

 

[csharpwv]

I predict that prices will drop $20 per point, and DVC will buy them up in ROFR.

You know, I've thought the same thing.
I honestly think this is DVC's way to squash the resale market.
I mean, it's been taking more and more business from them - not only in resales to new members - but in add-ons to current members.
We are 2-2 if out current contract in ROFR right now goes through.

We played fair - we contacted DVC first to get pricing on Hilton Head, so they had their chance to compete in the market - but we found what we wanted at less than 1/2 of what DVC was selling for - so there is no competition in that market.

I agree that this was mainly a move on DVC's part to scoop up more contracts in the ROFR process. The cheaper a contract is per point, the easier it is for them to buy - and then can make more off of it by selling it at nearly double the price they purchased it for.

So not only are they making an effort to increase their direct buy members - they are making great efforts to decrease the ability to buy from anyone other than them.

I can't say that it's unfair, I can't say that it's wrong, I can't say that is bad business. In fact, I can say that is fair - and it is a right business move that will in effect increase the overall value of being a DVC owner - no one gets in for less than $XXXXX.XX and no one get out for $XXXX.XX by letting someone else in for $XXXX.XX

DVC is closing the loop - it makes good business sense. PLUS the only people who are up in arms over it are the ones who are selling - so to Disney, they are a customer on their way out the door anyway.

 

[McCrae]

I dont think we will see any falls, I actually expect prices to increase.

 

[lilpooh108]

You know, I've thought the same thing.
I honestly think this is DVC's way to squash the resale market.
I mean, it's been taking more and more business from them - not only in resales to new members - but in add-ons to current members.
We are 2-2 if out current contract in ROFR right now goes through.

We played fair - we contacted DVC first to get pricing on Hilton Head, so they had their chance to compete in the market - but we found what we wanted at less than 1/2 of what DVC was selling for - so there is no competition in that market.

I agree that this was mainly a move on DVC's part to scoop up more contracts in the ROFR process. The cheaper a contract is per point, the easier it is for them to buy - and then can make more off of it by selling it at nearly double the price they purchased it for.

So not only are they making an effort to increase their direct buy members - they are making great efforts to decrease the ability to buy from anyone other than them.

I can't say that it's unfair, I can't say that it's wrong, I can't say that is bad business. In fact, I can say that is fair - and it is a right business move that will in effect increase the overall value of being a DVC owner - no one gets in for less than $XXXXX.XX and no one get out for $XXXX.XX by letting someone else in for $XXXX.XX

DVC is closing the loop - it makes good business sense. PLUS the only people who are up in arms over it are the ones who are selling - so to Disney, they are a customer on their way out the door anyway.

Totally agree. They know that taking away a perk will make prices drop. Why would they bother exercising ROFR to buy back points and selling at a slim markup.

It costs nothing for DVD to change the policy, and it will save them alot in the end to buy back cheaper ROFR contracts. The change will also give the buyers out there more uncertainty (if more contracts are being ROFR'ed) and less of a choice---driving people back to purchasing from DVD.

 

[taaren]

I don't think this is a move to scoop up contracts by ROFR. Somebody on the main Direct Purchase Benefits announced thread mentioned that given the financial situation for the last few years DVD was probably absorbing a lot of points through foreclosure, which sounds logical to me, and is a very valid explanation of why they haven't been exercising ROFR for anything other than BCV for the last year.
I'm curious to see if the prices will drop; would love it if they did. Been keeping an eye out for something with one of my 2 UY in the 50-100 range at my home resort (DH doesn't want to add on outside of our home since he doesn't want to be forced into flying across the country minimum 3 years, only every 5-7 ). Haven't seen it yet, if I do before March 20 I might jump, if I don't then that's fine too.
The contracts will lose value over time since they have an expiration date but I'm not sure about a steep drop-off next month since people who are looking into resale are probably not the people who are using points for the other options anyway. Either way I'm not too worried since we bought our points to use at our home and if we ever want to cruise on them we have our 2 primary contracts, one direct, and the other grandfathered.