All FP machines to be removed from Animal Kingdom by next week and....

[Rags]

Is this permanent or test during the busy season?

 

[mesaboy2]

Is this permanent or test during the busy season?

No one knows.

 

[magicbob]

Your whole discussion doesn't take into account the possibility (and I would say the likelihood) that Disney will overbook FP+ slots in anticipation of a certain percentage of guests not using their reservations. With all of the data they will be able to collect, they should have a pretty good idea of what percentage of reservations will not show.

I would compare it to a selective university that offers acceptances to roughly twice as many students as it has room for. They know from their experience that their "yield" (as the admissions offices call it) will be a certain percentage. If they fall short of the number of students they want they can admit some more off the waiting list.

But, if someone doesn't show for a FP, they shouldn't feel like they have deprived someone else of getting one. They are just one of the anonymous group of people Disney knew wouldn't show. Just like someone that gets accepted from an exclusive college, but then decides to go elsewhere, shouldn't feel like they have taken a spot from someone else.

As you noted, there were no shows with paper FPs too. That included people who left the park before their time came up. people who weren't in the right part of the park or decided not to ride, and those who engaged in "Fast Pass collecting" (a practice that will now end).

That likelihood of overbooking should mean that the actual number of reservations accepted will be greater than the theoretical FP capacity for the attraction.

I still maintain, even if the no-show was an "overbooked" reservation, that slot being assigned to someone else prevented another guest from getting it. I get what you're saying... Overbooking would mean more slots offered, so I have more chance to get one. But it's still a finite number and if they're out, they're out. The result is the same... I'm stuck in standby. What's worse is... if, by chance, a lot more of those overbooked FP+ holders show up than the algorithms predicted, guess what happens to standby? I'm having to wait even longer. Even if I was able to get one of the FP+ slots because they made more available than the capacity can handle. If that perfect storm occurs, even my wait in the FP+ line is going to be longer than normal due to the number of reservations made being greater than the capacity.

The only positive I see that could come from overbooking would be if it makes it easier for me to GET that FP+ slot and a bunch of people who also booked then don't show up (as predicted by computer models).

 

[hhill]

The FP+ deal is driving me crazy. I'm going in May do you think I should keep looking at this every day or come back a month before to see what I need to do ? My first time going to Disney. I'm a planner I thought I had it under control now it's like I don't even know where to start with the attraction planning. I don't understand all the changes and I don't know when to start getting FP+ how many I can get etc! I'm staying on site.

I should probably just give up for now and come back in a couple of months

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

The FP+ deal is driving me crazy. I'm going in May do you think I should keep looking at this every day or come back a month before to see what I need to do ? My first time going to Disney. I'm a planner I thought I had it under control now it's like I don't even know where to start with the attraction planning. I don't understand all the changes and I don't know when to start getting FP+ how many I can get etc! I'm staying on site.

I should probably just give up for now and come back in a couple of months

I think you should start paying attention in February.

 

[papertraveller]

Sooo not looking forward to this.
So as was advised by PP to set up the 'magical' experience account now before we land at Animal Kingdom -- do we need one for every member of the family, or will it work to just have our annual passes linked to the one account?

 

[doconeill]

And for those who think standby lines will have to get shorter, let's see what Disney says:



Hmmm, it doesn't say they will be longer, but it doesn't say they will be shorter. Although the following paragraph certainly indicates what they are thinking.

I saved the following post I made some time ago, which gets into why I believe the standby lines at the headliners will in fact be shorter. However, one of the assumptions have changed now that tiering in in effect at DHS and Epcot, so obviously that is going to have some effect that I think will make the standby lines longer again, but difficult to say by how much...

(incidentally, I mentioned how we only got one of the thumb drives Friday despite having a split stay and customizing two sets of MagicBands - well, the other one arrived today. )

----------------
It can be argued that those riding TSM more than once are likely doing so via Fastpass, at least once. Not all, but probably the majority. Some are very likely to be doing it using multiple Fastpasses.

Now, if you can only get one FP+, what happens? Warning...assumptions ahead, but based on observation and logic!!! (No, Doc, don't bring logic into this!!!)

Assumption 1: Regardless if you can get more FP+ in the park, you can still only get one per attraction.

Assumption 2: Those riding TSM with FP/FP+ will not be required to have to choose a FP+ for TSM or something else due to number of FP+ limitations or potential tiering of attractions.

Let's give names to different classes of TSM riders. And see if I can pull together a coherent argument despite interruptions.

The "duplicates". They get multiple FPs through the day for TSM, and ride 2+ times via FP, and potentially via standby as well, although if they do I expect it isn't more than once.

The "fast-and-slows". They ride twice - once standby, once FP.

The "one-and-dones". They only ride once, either standby or FP, but are at least FP-savvy.

The "don't-get-its", those who don't understand FP, and probably still won't understand FP+.

Now, the "fast-and-slows" aren't likely to change at all, since the changes don't affect them as far as this argument goes (they may need to make a choice and give up their TSM FP+ for something else, but lets assume they don't need to make that choice). So we can ignore them.

The "don't-get-its" also aren't likely to change. They are still a constant in the standby lines with their glares.

The duplicates are definitely affected, as they now can't get more than one FP. So what do they do? They can still ride multiple times, but they have to do it via standby. Some will, but I have a feeling most likely only do so because of FP, and won't. So while a few might go standby and increase the line there, others won't. So less FP usage, with a lesser increase in standby usage. This alone would be a standby win as standby users will take the missing FP slots. Advantage: Standby.

Now the "one-and-dones" are also affected. Those that end up in the standby line simply because there are no FPs available after noon, now have the potential to get a FP+ given up by the former duplicates. They likely will fill all those slots again - but then they are taking themselves out of the standby line on a 1-for-1 basis. So although the FP+ line goes back to before, the standby line decreases by the same degree, so it is shorter. Advantage: Standby.

Now of course there could be outliers - former one-and-dones that become opportunistic fast-and-slows now that a FP+ is dangled in front of them, but in the same token some duplicates and fast-and-slows may opt all the way down to one-and-dones. And for each former duplicate that used to ride 3+ times and now drops to 1, there are that many more slots opened for others.

That's why I'm actually seeing this as a potential win for the standby line.

 

[ajenks22]

You're right I understand you logic- We've used RD for each of three MB trips. We usually RD one park and have our FP+ at another park. I'm saying that the majority of park guests won't understand/ have interest in the benefits of RD (they want to sleep in on their vacations, all the same arguments you hear in any thread about RD). Also, think about how many people don't understand the current FP system (they think you have to pay for it etc). I just think you're putting a lot of faith in people (the majority of whom have way less information than those of us on the boards here) to suddenly become efficient vacation goers. Strictly speaking the new system won't hold the reserved spot- if you don't show up they will take an extra person from the standby line, it's not like they're going to run the ride empty for you

I spoke with a friend today who is going Dec 29. They have their MBs, and she was vaguely familiar with FP+. She thought she just did it when she got to the park (just like pulling FPs before). She wasn't aware that she could go ahead and book her FPs.

 

[doconeill]

Sooo not looking forward to this.
So as was advised by PP to set up the 'magical' experience account now before we land at Animal Kingdom -- do we need one for every member of the family, or will it work to just have our annual passes linked to the one account?

You can add people to your own profile under "Family and Friends" and managed them directly, rather than try to link to other accounts. Then add all the annual passes in your profile, and "assign" them to the different people.

 

[princesslover]

----------------
It can be argued that those riding TSM more than once are likely doing so via Fastpass, at least once. Not all, but probably the majority. Some are very likely to be doing it using multiple Fastpasses.

Now, if you can only get one FP+, what happens? Warning...assumptions ahead, but based on observation and logic!!! (No, Doc, don't bring logic into this!!!)

Assumption 1: Regardless if you can get more FP+ in the park, you can still only get one per attraction.

Assumption 2: Those riding TSM with FP/FP+ will not be required to have to choose a FP+ for TSM or something else due to number of FP+ limitations or potential tiering of attractions.

Let's give names to different classes of TSM riders. And see if I can pull together a coherent argument despite interruptions.

The "duplicates". They get multiple FPs through the day for TSM, and ride 2+ times via FP, and potentially via standby as well, although if they do I expect it isn't more than once.

The "fast-and-slows". They ride twice - once standby, once FP.

The "one-and-dones". They only ride once, either standby or FP, but are at least FP-savvy.

The "don't-get-its", those who don't understand FP, and probably still won't understand FP+.

Now, the "fast-and-slows" aren't likely to change at all, since the changes don't affect them as far as this argument goes (they may need to make a choice and give up their TSM FP+ for something else, but lets assume they don't need to make that choice). So we can ignore them.

The "don't-get-its" also aren't likely to change. They are still a constant in the standby lines with their glares.

The duplicates are definitely affected, as they now can't get more than one FP. So what do they do? They can still ride multiple times, but they have to do it via standby. Some will, but I have a feeling most likely only do so because of FP, and won't. So while a few might go standby and increase the line there, others won't. So less FP usage, with a lesser increase in standby usage. This alone would be a standby win as standby users will take the missing FP slots. Advantage: Standby.

Now the "one-and-dones" are also affected. Those that end up in the standby line simply because there are no FPs available after noon, now have the potential to get a FP+ given up by the former duplicates. They likely will fill all those slots again - but then they are taking themselves out of the standby line on a 1-for-1 basis. So although the FP+ line goes back to before, the standby line decreases by the same degree, so it is shorter. Advantage: Standby.

Now of course there could be outliers - former one-and-dones that become opportunistic fast-and-slows now that a FP+ is dangled in front of them, but in the same token some duplicates and fast-and-slows may opt all the way down to one-and-dones. And for each former duplicate that used to ride 3+ times and now drops to 1, there are that many more slots opened for others.

That's why I'm actually seeing this as a potential win for the standby line.

This actually makes perfect sense! As someone not thrilled with the new system, this gives me hope that perhaps the standby lines will be shorter? It will be interesting to see. Thanks for sharing.

 

[Silock]

I saved the following post I made some time ago, which gets into why I believe the standby lines at the headliners will in fact be shorter. However, one of the assumptions have changed now that tiering in in effect at DHS and Epcot, so obviously that is going to have some effect that I think will make the standby lines longer again, but difficult to say by how much...

(incidentally, I mentioned how we only got one of the thumb drives Friday despite having a split stay and customizing two sets of MagicBands - well, the other one arrived today. )

----------------
It can be argued that those riding TSM more than once are likely doing so via Fastpass, at least once. Not all, but probably the majority. Some are very likely to be doing it using multiple Fastpasses.

Now, if you can only get one FP+, what happens? Warning...assumptions ahead, but based on observation and logic!!! (No, Doc, don't bring logic into this!!!)

Assumption 1: Regardless if you can get more FP+ in the park, you can still only get one per attraction.

Assumption 2: Those riding TSM with FP/FP+ will not be required to have to choose a FP+ for TSM or something else due to number of FP+ limitations or potential tiering of attractions.

Let's give names to different classes of TSM riders. And see if I can pull together a coherent argument despite interruptions.

The "duplicates". They get multiple FPs through the day for TSM, and ride 2+ times via FP, and potentially via standby as well, although if they do I expect it isn't more than once.

The "fast-and-slows". They ride twice - once standby, once FP.

The "one-and-dones". They only ride once, either standby or FP, but are at least FP-savvy.

The "don't-get-its", those who don't understand FP, and probably still won't understand FP+.

Now, the "fast-and-slows" aren't likely to change at all, since the changes don't affect them as far as this argument goes (they may need to make a choice and give up their TSM FP+ for something else, but lets assume they don't need to make that choice). So we can ignore them.

The "don't-get-its" also aren't likely to change. They are still a constant in the standby lines with their glares.

The duplicates are definitely affected, as they now can't get more than one FP. So what do they do? They can still ride multiple times, but they have to do it via standby. Some will, but I have a feeling most likely only do so because of FP, and won't. So while a few might go standby and increase the line there, others won't. So less FP usage, with a lesser increase in standby usage. This alone would be a standby win as standby users will take the missing FP slots. Advantage: Standby.

Now the "one-and-dones" are also affected. Those that end up in the standby line simply because there are no FPs available after noon, now have the potential to get a FP+ given up by the former duplicates. They likely will fill all those slots again - but then they are taking themselves out of the standby line on a 1-for-1 basis. So although the FP+ line goes back to before, the standby line decreases by the same degree, so it is shorter. Advantage: Standby.

Now of course there could be outliers - former one-and-dones that become opportunistic fast-and-slows now that a FP+ is dangled in front of them, but in the same token some duplicates and fast-and-slows may opt all the way down to one-and-dones. And for each former duplicate that used to ride 3+ times and now drops to 1, there are that many more slots opened for others.

That's why I'm actually seeing this as a potential win for the standby line.

I don't know that many people will be dropping out of the lines overall simply because DHS is not a park that most people spend all day at. Even if you ride FP and SB once each, you are still likely gone early. It's not like MK or Epcot where people are riding a bunch of times because they're still in the park.

Additionally, the FP slots will be filled by someone, just not the same people. So, even if you had one person using 3 slots, you'll still end up with all three slots being used in the new system. This whole line of reasoning is based on less FP usage, when that's not how it will actually work. The same number of FPs will be used, just by a larger number of people.

Also, a slight decrease if FP usage doesn't mean much of a drop in the line. Even a shortening of the line by 5 minutes isn't much when the SB lines creep up on 90 minutes.

The bigger problem is still overall capacity in the parks. That's the only way you can change SB lines to any meaningful degree.

 

[Tozer]

I don't know that many people will be dropping out of the lines overall simply because DHS is not a park that most people spend all day at. Even if you ride FP and SB once each, you are still likely gone early. It's not like MK or Epcot where people are riding a bunch of times because they're still in the park.

Also, a slight decrease if FP usage doesn't mean much of a drop in the line. Even a shortening of the line by 5 minutes isn't much when the SB lines creep up on 90 minutes.

The bigger problem is still overall capacity in the parks. That's the only way you can change SB lines to any meaningful degree.

It is not the only way to change SB lines. All rides do not always operate at full capacity, for example.

 

[doconeill]

I don't know that many people will be dropping out of the lines overall simply because DHS is not a park that most people spend all day at. Even if you ride FP and SB once each, you are still likely gone early. It's not like MK or Epcot where people are riding a bunch of times because they're still in the park.

I don't believe that enters much into what I wrote, however. It isn't all that relevant as to how long people spend in the parks, etc. It may be that at DHS or AK the effect is less than at MK or Epcot, but it is all proportional. The fact that you do not believe DHS is a full day park doesn't change the rules on the limits. TSM was just the example when I wrote it. It applies also to all the other Fastpass attractions.

Additionally, the FP slots will be filled by someone, just not the same people. So, even if you had one person using 3 slots, you'll still end up with all three slots being used in the new system. This whole line of reasoning is based on less FP usage, when that's not how it will actually work. The same number of FPs will be used, just by a larger number of people.

Actually, no, I'm not saying there will be less FP usage at all. I actually said very explicitly that the slots WILL be used by other people. Those people would have originally been in the standby line (thus decreasing the standby line) or wouldn't have ridden at all. Here again is the relevant passage:

Now the "one-and-dones" are also affected. Those that end up in the standby line simply because there are no FPs available after noon, now have the potential to get a FP+ given up by the former duplicates. They likely will fill all those slots again - but then they are taking themselves out of the standby line on a 1-for-1 basis. So although the FP+ line goes back to before, the standby line decreases by the same degree, so it is shorter. Advantage: Standby.

Also, a slight decrease if FP usage doesn't mean much of a drop in the line. Even a shortening of the line by 5 minutes isn't much when the SB lines creep up on 90 minutes.

Although this is based on the incorrect reading of what I wrote, a 5 minute decrease on a 90 minute standby is still a 5.6% decrease. Nothing to sneeze at.

The bigger problem is still overall capacity in the parks. That's the only way you can change SB lines to any meaningful degree.

More specifically, ride capacity. But there are some issues with that as well...first, if you are going to increase ride capacity, it has to be in a useful way. A new E-ticket with staying power, for instance, as opposed to adding more simulators to Star Tours. You need something people want to do to take pressure off the existing attractions. But then, you increase the desirability to be in the park, which could increase attendance and length of time in the parks (which you led off with as being a problem for DHS) - and potentially back to square one.

 

[Silock]

It is not the only way to change SB lines. All rides do not always operate at full capacity, for example.

That's not at all what I'm talking about. A ride going down or not operating at capacity is a big negative.

I'm talking about the improvement of wait times.

 

[Good Morning Dewdrop]

we're in the "fast and slow" or "multiples" category - generally doing the TSM run with DH grabbing FP (he walks faster) and then all of us riding at least once SB and then again via FP (at least once sometimes more than that). On a really rainy icky day we got to ride TSM 8 times before 11 am (arms were tired by then).

FP+ has changed a lot of our plans. I'm now mostly aiming for DHS in the afternoon having made FP+ plans for that and going to another park in the morning. So instead of 4 or 5 mornings at DHS to hit TSM many times in the trip we are now going there I think one morning and the rest in the afternoon (for us FP+ is best used at DHS and MK - only using it once at AK and none at Epcot).

So our previously used 'spots' in SB and FP will now be taken by someone else in the morning and we'll take up only one "spot" for TSM in the afternoon. Changing our touring overall quite a bit.

 

[Silock]

I don't believe that enters much into what I wrote, however. It isn't all that relevant as to how long people spend in the parks, etc. It may be that at DHS or AK the effect is less than at MK or Epcot, but it is all proportional. The fact that you do not believe DHS is a full day park doesn't change the rules on the limits. TSM was just the example when I wrote it. It applies also to all the other Fastpass attractions.

I think it enters into it because people are only riding headliners multiple times when they are still in the park (obviously). If you've ridden everything you want to except one ride, are you really going to stick around for a 90 minute SB line? Not likely. So, if you're RD'ing a park, you'll do your FP+ and your SB ride (on a Tier 1 attraction) and then leave. Other people may do it the other way around and enter late, do the FP+ and ride SB late at night. The problem is exacerbated at DHS and DAK because they don't have multiple headliners in the same way that Epcot and MK do. At Epcot, people might RD, do a FP+ (again, for a Tier 1, either Soarin' or TT) then head to world showcase for the day and then come back to FW at night to do TT or Soarin' when the lines die down. Simply by being in the park, you've greatly increased their chances of attempting another ride.

Actually, no, I'm not saying there will be less FP usage at all. I actually said very explicitly that the slots WILL be used by other people. Those people would have originally been in the standby line (thus decreasing the standby line) or wouldn't have ridden at all. Here again is the relevant passage:

This assumes that the number of people who want to ride the TSMM ride is fixed, and that only a certain amount of the people entering the park every day are going to ride it. I don't think that's the case. The long wait times serve as a deterrent (Or, looking at it the other way, people are still willing to wait up to a point), but when those wait times decrease *significantly*, people that would not have otherwise ridden get in line. This offsets whatever gain you get by people not riding multiple times with FP. It may even be people that are willing to ride SB twice. Either way, the demand so far outstrips the supply that unless you build another ride, you can't do much to alleviate the pressure in a meaningful way.

Although this is based on the incorrect reading of what I wrote, a 5 minute decrease on a 90 minute standby is still a 5.6% decrease. Nothing to sneeze at.

I'm going to go ahead and sneeze all over that It may be fine once you've already decided to stand in the line, but an 85 minute wait isn't going to do much to entice people to stand in the line that wouldn't have done a 90 minute wait, anyway. Decrease it by 30% and now you're getting somewhere!

 

[Laketravis]

T minus 37 hours, 16 minutes............

 

[doconeill]

I think it enters into it because people are only riding headliners multiple times when they are still in the park (obviously). If you've ridden everything you want to except one ride, are you really going to stick around for a 90 minute SB line? Not likely. So, if you're RD'ing a park, you'll do your FP+ and your SB ride (on a Tier 1 attraction) and then leave. Other people may do it the other way around and enter late, do the FP+ and ride SB late at night. The problem is exacerbated at DHS and DAK because they don't have multiple headliners in the same way that Epcot and MK do. At Epcot, people might RD, do a FP+ (again, for a Tier 1, either Soarin' or TT) then head to world showcase for the day and then come back to FW at night to do TT or Soarin' when the lines die down. Simply by being in the park, you've greatly increased their chances of attempting another ride.

I'm still not understanding your point. If DHS is a half-day park to you, it's a half-day park. I don't think we're expect that that is going to change at all. I'm talking about the effects on a standby line at a particular attraction in one park - not whether someone might ride something twice at Epcot where they might only ride once at DHS. The categories are for a given attraction - a "multiple" at Soarin' might be a "one-and-done" at TSM, for example. But it doesn't change the categories, or the likely changes in categories when limited to one FP+ per attraction.

This assumes that the number of people who want to ride the TSMM ride is fixed, and that only a certain amount of the people entering the park every day are going to ride it. I don't think that's the case. The long wait times serve as a deterrent (Or, looking at it the other way, people are still willing to wait up to a point), but when those wait times decrease *significantly*, people that would not have otherwise ridden get in line. This offsets whatever gain you get by people not riding multiple times with FP. It may even be people that are willing to ride SB twice. Either way, the demand so far outstrips the supply that unless you build another ride, you can't do much to alleviate the pressure in a meaningful way.

It isn't so much that that the number of people willing to ride it is fixed as much as the capacity is fixed. In general, for the headliners, guests willing to ride is in excess of capacity. So yes, if we reduce the posted wait times, more will get in line, and then the wait time will go up again. But to get people into that line, we had to have reduced the wait time to begin with in order for them to make the different decision to get in the standby line vs. them saying it is too long and don't bother.

But in general, it would mean the standby line could be _no worse_ than before, with the potential for benefit.

I'm going to go ahead and sneeze all over that It may be fine once you've already decided to stand in the line, but an 85 minute wait isn't going to do much to entice people to stand in the line that wouldn't have done a 90 minute wait, anyway. Decrease it by 30% and now you're getting somewhere!

Everyone will have a tipping point - accept the wait time and get in line, or walk on by. Unfortunately we can't predict what it is for any given person. But in general, for any given reduction, Someone's decision will change. Diminishing with higher waits to be sure.

 

[bcrook]

And it's completely within the realm of possibility that people will be locked out of FP+ even before their 60 days comes around. If somebody knows, is it 60+10 days that one can make FP+ appointments? I cannot find it anywhere on the WDW website. If it is 60+10, then during busy times of the year, say Christmas, everyone coming in on Dec. 20th could make appointments out until Dec. 30th. It happens now with popular ADRs and I see no reason that it couldn't happen for TSMM, RnR, Soarin, and Test Track.

And Kilimanjaro Safaris. Enchanted Tales With Belle? Mine Train! Peter Pan?

That's totally fair, and honestly, it's needed to counterbalance the opinions of people like myself. Although, I don't think many people care about the MB. That's fine. It's the FP+ we have issues with.

I suspect the eventual reality will be somewhere in between the two camps of "It's going to be amazing!" and "It's going to ruin everything!"

I'm still leaning very much toward the latter camp simply because I'm not an optimist when it comes to giant corporations.

It could vary from amazing in slow times to ruin everything in peak times.

For the population that doesn't ride the rides - it will always be good. Those people will use their FP+ slots for parades, front of the line CS meals, and fireworks.

It is far too restrictive for me. Combine that with the credit card guarantee for ADRs at places like gf cafe, and I don't even know what do anymore.

 

[lugnut33]

And it's completely within the realm of possibility that people will be locked out of FP+ even before their 60 days comes around. If somebody knows, is it 60+10 days that one can make FP+ appointments? I cannot find it anywhere on the WDW website. If it is 60+10, then during busy times of the year, say Christmas, everyone coming in on Dec. 20th could make appointments out until Dec. 30th. It happens now with popular ADRs and I see no reason that it couldn't happen for TSMM, RnR, Soarin, and Test Track.

I want to counter my own point as I was wrong. More than likely the only way this will happen is if they allow off-site guests to book at 60 days also. Otherwise just those guests staying on-site is not enough to cause a shortage of fastpasses that far out. There are only 35K rooms on site.