When Disney updated the FW
points charts in 2023, Week 39 fully fell in September which is rare. Then they didn't update the FW point requirement for that week since they didn't change any of the monthly
point charts. Looking at the next 15 years of dates for Week 39 and there are only 3 years where the FW doesn't already come out equal or cheaper than booking on points using the current point charts! Any week 39 that includes 2 October dates breaks even on the current points, more than 2 October days comes up net positive even after accounting for the 10% premium. Needle in the haystack when it comes to FW!
I like your advice on the 114+86+50. Gives me more options should I decide to downsize while still keeping
DVC-Y. I also don't expect much price difference on the resale market between an 86, 68, and 50 point contract. The 114 point contract will also be attractive as it will be a FW and still a small point commitment.
I am sold on Week 39 at this point. Thanks for your input! Now the question is do I have the patience to wait until the date I previously told my guide I would be buying or call him sooner?!