There is a dramatic difference is dues and IMO far more risk for rising dues at AKV than SSR for 2 reasons. Building design and the animal costs. Who cares about 3 yrs more at the end of the contracts from now, the value is negligible currently.
I would agree that most people who buy in don't have a good feel for their ultimate preferences and IMO, all the more reason to underbuy in both resort and number of points for a new member. Obviously there are many variables. This is one of the reasons I think people shouldn't rush into such a purchase. Spend some time, rent a couple of times, etc. The better decisions will almost always outpace the lost savings on a couple of trips.
I think for some what you say is true but for most, they don't know enough about what they'll feel once they get into it to really make a perfect decision up front. Basically the don't know where they want to stay long term even if they think they do. Better to make a bad $10K decision than a bad $20K. I'd also suggest that while there are a few, there really are very few options one can't get much of the time with planning. Now it might be AKV standard instead of value or BWV preferred instead of BWV BW or standard view, etc. Or it might be a 1 BR instead of a studio in certain situations. To hit the ends of the spectrum, it's almost always FAR greater to buy SSR and use it elsewhere when one can than to spend 2.5 times as much at VGF and do the same thing. IMO AKV is an exception where you can always get in and likely will always be able to do so but I'd agree if you want certain high demand items one may want to own there but I'd also suggest that for many when you decide to pay for the higher demand options to guarantee potential access you move from DVC being a reasonable purchase to not being so reasonable. And you actually don't get a guarantee of availability unless you buy a fixed week though you'll have a better chance owning there than not.
In this vein, the idea that most who buy SSR or OKW will be stuck staying there most times is simply false. They will have options almost all of the time if not really close to 100% of the time if they are proactive at 7 months out, esp if you include the WL in the mix. We've seen several people post in the past few months from people that own SSR and have never stayed there.
I agree on the renting/ reosrt visit part of things. It's a great way to get a feel for a resort. However, If the basis of the SSR argument is its the cheapest option to stay at DVC, that is simply not true. If someone's sole basis is to stay at DVC on the cheap, then Buying a DVC resort should not be in play. Buying a RCI resort to stay at DVC (specifically, OKW, AKV, BWV or SSI) can be the cheapest way to stay if a person can be somewhat flexible with their dates. I will give you my real world examples.
1- bought timeshare a on eBay $500 out of pocket
2- bought timeshare b on eBay for $250 out of pocket.
3- sent timeshares to rci after paying $1012 in Maint fee for these two timeshares. Both are not in Orlando and are have the highest ratings in RCI.
4- paid additional $318 to combine and do a dvc search.
5- I own at AKV so I had a 1 bedroom already reserved at AKV in May.
6- match came up in rci for my exact Friday to Friday stay in rci. It was SSr, so it threw it back.
7- 4 days later a kidani standard 1 bedroom came back. I accepted.
8- after this exchange I still have 30 percent of my points left. Last year when I did the same and stayed at BWV it was enough for me to take 2 other vacations at a Wyndam water park resort at gatlingburg, TN during spring break and book a 1 bedroom for my mother in law at Daytona in off season.
9- in essence I can swing 3 weeks of vacation out of my 2 week RCI exchange. Plus I can sell my Original 200 dvc point for at least $2,600. This money covers my yearly fees at AkV $1,260, and the fees on my other two timeshares. I just paid $209 per exchange fee to go on 3 weekly vacations.
10- the best part is one of my non dvc resorts has raised Maint fees one time in 5 years (quarterhouse new Orleans). The other raised it .5% last year.
11- both resorts I own trade into RCI and II. No fear in DVC moving to another exchange co.
12- I priced my DVC stay at AKV at $950 this year for a 1 bedroom during dream at $4.75 a point. so even if you don't want to sell your dvc points, by going thru RCI, it's the cheapest option to go to DVC .....BAR NONE.
So, if DVC is a 90 percent financial decision, I believe this scenario is the cheapest. If you don't mind where you stay then I ask most people here why would you continue to own at DVC unless you are selling points? Clearly there is a cheaper alternative.
For me, it's a combo of what is the cheapest and emotional. A timeshare IS partly an emotional purchase. It's no different from buying a luxury car because that's what you like instead of what costs the least. As a BLT, AKV and HHI owner, I like knowing that I have my Christmas vacation locked in 11 months in advance at places I like the most. If I need to wait later to book and save points, I'll look into an RCI exchange as my "savings" plan, not spend thousands of dollars on a place I don't want to stay like SSR (if this is how you feel). Again, if it's about saving money, I would encourage a non DVC exchange.
For the record, I am not a SSR hater, I will stay there one day too, as my wife loves the theming there. I don't mind it either.
Bill
