Value studios are often either gone within moments after 8 a.m. eastern at 11-months out, or already gone shortly before 11-months out. On a typical day at 11-months out, you are not competing for the 18 value studios that exist. Instead, you are competing for a much smaller number of value studios, probably 5 or less, consisting of those value studios for which members are checking out on the given date 11-months away. The winners are simply those whose computers communicate fastest with Disney's right at 8 a.m.
During the high demand season from late Sep to marathon weekend in Jan,, most everyday follows that pattern, although sometimes the rooms may last a little beyond 8 a.m. Best, but still low, chance for that occurring is when attempting to reserve, at 11-months out, a late Sep or early Oct start date, a start date between the end of Food & Wine and the Thurs, a week before Thanksgiving, a start date of the Saturday after Thanksgiving, a start date between Dec 15 and 21, and a start after Jan 2 but before the Wednesday of Marathon weekend in Jan.
During the rest of the year, the values disappear at or before 8 a.m. at 11 months out about 65% of the time. Best chance (although still fairly low) for one to still be open beyond 8 a.m. is when seeking a start date during
DVC's lowest demand times of the year: Feb 1 to the Thurs before Presidents.Day, late Feb after the Princess half marathon weekend through about March 10, the last week of April, and July 6 to 31.
If a room is full when you make an attempt at 11-months out, you might sometimes pick up days later as "walkers" pass by, although the problem there is that "success" can often mean no more than getting part of the days you actually want.
You can also attempt to walk yourself. The one significant problem with that is finding a day you can begin a walk.You cannot begin any earlier than the first date of the use year in which your trip will take place. For example, if you have an Oct use year and want Oct dates, the earliest you can begin a walk is with an Oct 1 start date because points in any Sep reservation could not be carried oner into the applicable Oct time frame while walking.
For a Christmas trip, the best time to start looking for a possible start date for walking is in July after July 5. Though, as mentioned above, there are possible dates that might open up in Oct and after, those are still less likely to happen than a date in July. In any event, unless your applicable use year prevents it, you should probably start looking for a start date for walking no later than mid-Sep.
As to an April trip, you should likely start looking for a start date beginning in early Feb, and start looking no later than a late Feb start date.