Adding on to VGF

[Salf777]

So we own a small contract in VGF and want to add on. In looking at the add on tool on the DVC website Bay Lake is $245 a point Poly $250 a point and I see speculation on here that the new VGF is going to be $200-$225 a point ?
With resale VGF in the $200 range should we wait to see how the new VGF prices out and buy direct or grab a resale while they are available?
If people here are right and they price at $200 a point it would be so much easier buying direct at that point

 

[Sandisw]

I think it all depends on how soon you want the points. I don’t think we will be pricing until Winter 2022 now.

If you have no desire to use your points at RIV or future resorts, I would probably not pass up any resale contract that meets your needs, even though I do believe you will be able to get new VGF points around $225 to $230…but it’s a guess.

 

[RoseGold]

There’s A LOT of VGF resale sitting. Make some low offers.

I don’t see why you would want to wait to pay more.

 

[Nabas]

We’ve been closely monitoring all VGF resale contracts between 60 to 140 points since May.

Asking prices have stopped increasing, leveling off mostly between $195 to $205. Those at $195 go almost immediately. Those at $205 tend to linger longer, in some cases weeks.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

We’ve been closely monitoring all VGF resale contracts between 60 to 140 points since May.

Asking prices have stopped increasing, leveling off mostly between $195 to $205. Those at $195 go almost immediately. Those at $205 tend to linger longer, in some cases weeks.

I am not seeing “tons” of VGF listing. If you choose “active” listings I am seeing about 17 across three brokers. IMO that is far from tons. Also, CCV pricing resale is anywhere from $159-$182. That is not a regrettable price range by any means. Folks, please take all of these comments with a grain of salt. Do your own homework.

 

[kanerf]

So we own a small contract in VGF and want to add on. In looking at the add on tool on the DVC website Bay Lake is $245 a point Poly $250 a point and I see speculation on here that the new VGF is going to be $200-$225 a point ?
With resale VGF in the $200 range should we wait to see how the new VGF prices out and buy direct or grab a resale while they are available?
If people here are right and they price at $200 a point it would be so much easier buying direct at that point

Riviera is currently $201 a point. A bargain right now with some resales passing $200 a point.

 

[Nabas]

I am not seeing “tons” of VGF listing. If you choose “active” listings I am seeing about 17 across three brokers. IMO that is far from tons. Also, CCV pricing resale is anywhere from $159-$182. That is not a regrettable price range by any means. Folks, please take all of these comments with a grain of salt. Do your own homework.

Sorry, did you intend to quote someone else? I never said there were "tons" of listings. Quite the opposite. I said those in the 80 to 140 point range that are priced at about $195 go quickly.

Those at $205 or above tend to linger a bit longer.

I currently am tracking 80-140 point VGF contracts across 12 websites. At the moment, I see 6 that are active. 1 listing originated in June, 4 listing originated in August, and 1 listing originated in September.

Only one of these contracts has all of its 2021 points. It's priced at $205 per point. The other contracts are mostly "stripped" and are not selling quickly even though they are in the $192 to $197 range. Other recent contracts that included 2021 points have sold within a day or two.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Sorry, did you intend to quote someone else? I never said there were "tons" of listings. Quite the opposite. I said those in the 80 to 140 point range that are priced at about $195 go quickly.

Those at $205 or above tend to linger a bit longer.

I currently am tracking 80-140 point VGF contracts across 12 websites. At the moment, I see 6 that are active. 1 listing originated in June, 4 listing originated in August, and 1 listing originated in September.

Only one of these contracts has all of its 2021 points. It's priced at $205 per point. The other contracts are mostly "stripped" and are not selling quickly even though they are in the $192 to $197 range. Other recent contracts that included 2021 points have sold within a day or two.

Sorry the CCV comment was meant for someone else. My bad!

 

[davidl81]

So we own a small contract in VGF and want to add on. In looking at the add on tool on the DVC website Bay Lake is $245 a point Poly $250 a point and I see speculation on here that the new VGF is going to be $200-$225 a point ?
With resale VGF in the $200 range should we wait to see how the new VGF prices out and buy direct or grab a resale while they are available?
If people here are right and they price at $200 a point it would be so much easier buying direct at that point

I personally would not add on resale VGF right now at the $200 a point level. I think direct in a few months will be close to that price point give or take. Buying direct will let you match UY and get the exact number of points you will need. And if VGF direct ends up being higher in a few months resale will always still be there.

 

[Nabas]

I personally would not add on resale VGF right now at the $200 a point level. I think direct in a few months will be close to that price point give or take. Buying direct will let you match UY and get the exact number of points you will need. And if VGF direct ends up being higher in a few months resale will always still be there.

It’s difficult to imagine VGF2 opening above $255pp since it was selling only about 2000 points per month at that price.

Presumably, the resale market already is priced assuming VGF sells at $255pp. As a result, resale might dip if VGF opens much lower than $255pp

I still predict $220 to $235pp but with what has recently happened with annual pass prices, Genie+, and IAS, I might be too optimistic.

Conversely, DVD has a history of pricing all active resorts at or near the same price. With the RIV currently priced at $201pp and presumably one more price increase before VGF2 is offered, could we see $210pp?

I dunno. Disney under Chapek really seems to be pushing price increases. With all this talk of inflation, is DVD under Chapek going to see how far they can push it?

The thing is, if VGF2 sells quickly during the first month, they can always raise prices immediately. But if it sells poorly due to economic worries, it looks a lot worse to start offering deep discounts.

 

[RoseGold]

I am not seeing “tons” of VGF listing. If you choose “active” listings I am seeing about 17 across three brokers. IMO that is far from tons. Also, CCV pricing resale is anywhere from $159-$182. That is not a regrettable price range by any means. Folks, please take all of these comments with a grain of salt. Do your own homework.

I watch VGF and bought VGF last summer when it was low. There's more VGF than I've seen in months, and the contracts are sitting around for weeks. There was almost none a few months ago.

You only need one motivated seller.

But if it sells poorly due to economic worries, it looks a lot worse to start offering deep discounts.

I think selling poorly is the point. There's no new construction in the foreseeable future. If it sells poorly, they just put it on the shelf with all those Aulani points. Actively selling VGF for a long time is a great position to be in. It makes everything else look cheaper, it's got none of the RIV baggage, and it's easier to come tour.

 

[davidl81]

I watch VGF and bought VGF last summer when it was low. There's more VGF than I've seen in months, and the contracts are sitting around for weeks. There was almost none a few months ago.

You only need one motivated seller.



I think selling poorly is the point. There's no new construction in the foreseeable future. If it sells poorly, they just put it on the shelf with all those Aulani points. Actively selling VGF for a long time is a great position to be in. It makes everything else look cheaper, it's got none of the RIV baggage, and it's easier to come tour.

That is not how things work in the world of capital expenses and rate of return. Time value of money is so important. You can’t let things just sell slowly if you price it too high. You have to price it to where it maximizes revenue and sells at a fast enough pace so that the time value of money does not negatively effect the rate of return.

 

[kandlsutton]

We’ve been closely monitoring all VGF resale contracts between 60 to 140 points since May.

Asking prices have stopped increasing, leveling off mostly between $195 to $205. Those at $195 go almost immediately. Those at $205 tend to linger longer, in some cases weeks.

I agree that most now are in the $195 and up range. I keep looking to see if I missed out on a better deal. Kinda thinking I will still be happy with my 55pt VGF contract for $175 pp ( offer accepted in June and passed ROFR in July) when the VGF2 sales open up. We weren’t looking for the larger point contract that will likely be required to get decent incentives (100pt plus).

 

[davidl81]

I agree that most now are in the $195 and up range. I keep looking to see if I missed out on a better deal. Kinda thinking I will still be happy with my 55pt VGF contract for $175 pp ( offer accepted in June and passed ROFR in July) when the VGF2 sales open up. We weren’t looking for the larger point contract that will likely be required to get decent incentives (100pt plus).

That is a fantastic contract. I think VGF will be lower than many people on this board think, but it will not be any where near $175. Best case would be 175+ contracts at slightly over $200.