Actual Crowd vs UG Predicted - Wednesday 20 April

[lentesta]

At 12:15 pm Eastern, the standby waits at the MK's headliner attractions were as follows:

Space: 40 minutes
Splash: 55 minutes
BTMRR: 45 minutes

This would be something like a high 4 or low 5 on the UG's scale, depending on if we took the highest time (55), the median (45), or the mean (46 and change).

A couple of things to note: FASTPASSes on these attractions seem to be going at a faster rate than Monday, so standby waits may increase faster than Monday when those FPs users start returning.

The "official" UG prediction for today's crowd level was a 5. That's probably low, since we've probably not yet peaked. One revised UG model (the one on the blog) has an 8, and another has a 7. I'm guessing the 7 or 8 will be more accurate. I'll start keeping track of each model's success this evening.

Next update should be around 2 pm Eastern.

Len

 

[cocowum]

Thanks for the update, Len

 

[crazyj4488]

Man, I really wish we had Tuesday's data. That is, typically, the least crowded day at MK...an important one to look at. Has anyone come across some posts with this data...I'll be searching some other boards.

 

[marriedmarylander]

Man, I really wish we had Tuesday's data. That is, typically, the least crowded day at MK...an important one to look at. Has anyone come across some posts with this data...I'll be searching some other boards.

I find it interesting Tuesday is least crowded even when Spectro may only be playing a few days that week. I would think Tuesday would have jumped up as well but apparently not.

 

[lentesta]

Bob's out of the office, but when he gets back I'll ask him to ask Disney if they can make a one-time exception to give us this information. There's a chance they'll do it, as long as it's narrowly-defined.

Len

 

[lentesta]

At 1:30 pm Eastern:

Space Mountain: 65 minutes (highest of the day so far)
BTMRR: 50 minutes (highest of the day so far)
Splash: 45 minutes (highest was 60 minutes)

We'll keep monitoring until 3 pm or so. Crowds usually peak before the afternoon parade, so we should be able to capture the highest wait times of the day.

Len

 

[deanna2426]

Thanks for the update...I don't know what we would do without you, Len!!!

 

[ValerieK]

Len,

Are you going to do this toward the end of the week. I would like to know how Grad Nights are going to effect crowds on Thursday, Monday and well, basically the weekend. We be there the weekend of April 30 and I am worried that MK will be packed on Monday and Thursday.

Thanks

 

[AlwaysAPrincess]

Bumping.....I am leaving tomorrow 4/21 & returning 4/25. Want to keep up on the crowd updates! Thank you for doing this Len!

 

[lentesta]

At 2:15 pm Eastern:

Space Mtn: 45 mins (peak was 65)
BTMRR: 75 mins (peak = 75)
Splash: 55 mins (peak = 60)

I believe this qualifies as a 7 on the UG scale, with two attractions' peak waits at 65 minutes. I'll update the blog this evening, and begin tracking the performance of each of the three methods we're using to predict wait times.

Len

 

[BostonRob]

Why is it so busy this week?

Most of the Northeast is on Spring Break. At least that's what I hear - I know my part of Massachusetts is.

 

[ottawamom]

Len, I have been watching the crowd blog saga all week. I have one question though. You measure the wait times early afternoon. The UG recommends touring in morning and getting as much done as soon as possible. What are the wait times like say 10-11:30ish when the wait times are 65min at 2:00 on a non EMH day? Don't know if you collect this kind of data or if you can extrapolate it? This sure would be useful information to us early risers.

 

[ms.ojo]

Len, I have been watching the crowd blog saga all week. I have one question though. You measure the wait times early afternoon. The UG recommends touring in morning and getting as much done as soon as possible. What are the wait times like say 10-11:30ish when the wait times are 65min at 2:00 on a non EMH day? Don't know if you collect this kind of data or if you can extrapolate it? This sure would be useful information to us early risers.

Great question!!! It's nice to follow the crowds for this week. Very helpful!

 

[paigevz]

Well, now I'm really glad I won't be going for another year, by then you'll have it all worked out!

 

[Nik's Mom]

Thanks! It's so nice having these updates.

 

[Jalva22]

I'm also interested in knowing what wait times earlier in the day were like. If it would be possible to post (either here or on the UG website) some times throughout the entire day, it would be very helpful in knowing what a typical "7" day might look like. I'd be curious to see how the crowds increase throughout a morning and decrease throughout an evening.

 

[Zippa D Doodah]

bumpity bump

 

[mermaidwannabe]

Leaving in 3 days so I'm very interested in these wait times!! Thanks Len!!!!!

 

[amshowers]

Leaving tomorrow,and I most of the crowds will go home! Thanks for the info,and I am prepared that this is going to busier then usuaul this time of year.