Accurate Crowd Calendars

[pbrim]

Any ideas about the most accurate crowd calendars? I am trying to plan a Sept trip. I have looked at TouringPlans.com, UndercoverTourist.com and IsItPacked.com but I am seeing wildly different numbers

 

[MillauFr]

None of them are accurate. Just avoid Mondays.

 

[FanforDisney]

Going in Sept. Why avoid Mondays?

None of them are accurate. Just avoid Mondays.

 

[mdmost]

Tuesdays can also be busy. Probably the best way to figure out crowds are two things: single day ticket pricing and Magic Key blackouts. Enchant Keys are blocked on Saturdays. Imagine Keys are blocked on Saturdays and Sundays. Believe Keys aren't blocked at all in September.

https://disneyland.disney.go.com/passes/blockout-dates/

https://www.undercovertourist.com/los-angeles/1-day-base-disneyland-ticket/

Lower tickets prices can be misleading. Do they increase the amount of people that show up because it's a cheaper cost per family or does that mean Disney thinks those days will be really slow? Higher ticket prices could lead to less people showing up.

I use Touring Plans but they can be wildly off. I mostly use it as an educated guess but I don't take it as gospel. Everything is kind of a guess now but what I've seen lately, weekends are better because the high ticket prices combined with 2 keys being blocked make the parks less busy. Sundays seem to be really good.

The best advice is to commit to doing rope drop at 8am and you can get a lot accomplished before the late morning crowds arrive around 10am to 11am.

 

[MillauFr]

Going in Sept. Why avoid Mondays?

Monday is the most crowded day of the week at the park. Variable pricing and annual pass block outs are the reasons.

 

[OlliePop27]

Tuesdays can also be busy. Probably the best way to figure out crowds are two things: single day ticket pricing and Magic Key blackouts. Enchant Keys are blocked on Saturdays. Imagine Keys are blocked on Saturdays and Sundays. Believe Keys aren't blocked at all in September.

https://disneyland.disney.go.com/passes/blockout-dates/

https://www.undercovertourist.com/los-angeles/1-day-base-disneyland-ticket/

Lower tickets prices can be misleading. Do they increase the amount of people that show up because it's a cheaper cost per family or does that mean Disney thinks those days will be really slow? Higher ticket prices could lead to less people showing up.

I use Touring Plans but they can be wildly off. I mostly use it as an educated guess but I don't take it as gospel. Everything is kind of a guess now but what I've seen lately, weekends are better because the high ticket prices combined with 2 keys being blocked make the parks less busy. Sundays seem to be really good.

The best advice is to commit to doing rope drop at 8am and you can get a lot accomplished before the late morning crowds arrive around 10am to 11am.

Excellent summary! The data shows that the lower price ticket days are more crowded than the higher price ticket days, but you are correct that Disney thinks the highest price ticket days will be more crowded.

The one unique variable in the fall is the several time per week early closure of DCA. While not as impactful as when DL closes early, it still impacts crowd flow every day during the fall season. The non-early closure days are more crowded as people push visits to those dates.

 

[LKing]

Lower tickets prices can be misleading. Do they increase the amount of people that show up because it's a cheaper cost per family or does that mean Disney thinks those days will be really slow? Higher ticket prices could lead to less people showing up.

Lower prices bring in more people, not because it is a slow day.

 

[Nonsuch]

Tuesdays can also be busy. Probably the best way to figure out crowds are two things: single day ticket pricing and Magic Key blackouts. Enchant Keys are blocked on Saturdays. Imagine Keys are blocked on Saturdays and Sundays. Believe Keys aren't blocked at all in September.

Low Tiers create Big Crowds
The large number of single day guests likely spend more hours in the park, compared to multi-day or Magic Key guests

 

[bwang123]

"jumbo shrimp", "original copy", "accurate crowd calendar"

 

[TammyC]

So, in general, do you DL experts think crowds are lower on blockout days since key holders can't go, or lower on non blockout days since Disney allows key holders because they expect low crowds?

 

[_19disnA]

This topic is frequently discussed relating to Disneyworld as well. "Forecasts" of future random events is always going to be subjective at best. The further out into the future they go, the less likely they are to be accurate. There is no magic in the formula any 3rd party uses. I would assume most use historical data and known holidays/major events to create their 'forecast'. Each 3rd party probably has their own forecasting method which can yield significantly different results. Even forecasting the weather can be wildly inaccurate if more than 2-3 days into the future.

 

[LKing]

So, in general, do you DL experts think crowds are lower on blockout days since key holders can't go, or lower on non blockout days since Disney allows key holders because they expect low crowds?

Crowds are lower when ticket prices are higher and lower tier MK are blocked.