A reminder from the past...

[raidermatt]

Ok, I was poking around trying to find a complete listing for North American park attendance for 2002, and I came across this article from February of 2001, regarding DCA.

Tech News

Ok, I'll wait until you're done laughing...

I post this now, partly just because I thought it was amusing to read, and partly because I've read of some claiming that DCA isn't really that far off the mark.

But the main thing that struck me was not how far off Disney was in its projections, but moreso how far off the analysts were. These people are supposed to be experts in Disney and its business and its clear they are just as clueless about the Disney fan/guest base as Disney's own executive management is.

This is important to remember when we read about analysts who basically repeat Disney's company line about "being well-positioned when the economic rebound occurs".

I found these lines particularly telling:

"Disney has this down to a science and it's magical," said Jessica Reif-Cohen, an analyst with Merrill Lynch. "I think they are going to do very well with this park."...

...But economic uncertainty actually could help, analysts say, because people might cancel expensive vacations abroad in favor of trips closer to home...

...Analysts said one factor in Disney's favor is that the new park, while unique in its focus on California's history and natural wonders, recycles attractions found in its other parks...

..."It's more of an extension of certain rides and concepts than huge, new, risky, untested themes," said Christopher Dixon, an analyst at UBS Warburg...

..."What is most telling about California Adventure is that it is not a $5 billion park designed for 12 million people a year," Dixon said. "In the face of concerns about the economy, this strategy is expected to be much more successful."...

...Analysts predict Disney's latest park will add about $150 million to the company's bottom line in the first year, a figure Disney says is about right. And starting in the 2002 fiscal year, the theme parks are expected to generate about $1 billion a year in profit...

...Disney is expecting the new park will be such a hit that it will have to shut its gates the way Disneyland did several days last December.

"I'm anticipating peak capacity crowds," said David Miller, an analyst with Sutro & Co. "For at least the first four months, Disney will be roping the park off at peak times after 33,000 people enter."

Pressler said out-of-town visitors with three- or four-day passes will be guaranteed at least one day in the new park. "It's a nice problem to have," Pressler said. "We will do that to ensure that the guest experience is a Disney-quality experience."

 

[Luv2Roam]

...and a theme park with an unusually narrow theme.

Yep, that describes it pretty good.
Funny article!

 

[airlarry!]

Who knew Mr. Pre$$ler was such a comedian?

Pressler said out-of-town visitors with three- or four-day passes will be guaranteed at least one day in the new park. "It's a nice problem to have," Pressler said. "We will do that to ensure that the guest experience is a Disney-quality experience."

But, this was my fave:

"I'm anticipating peak capacity crowds," said David Miller, an analyst with Sutro & Co. "For at least the first four months, Disney will be roping the park off at peak times after 33,000 people enter."

Has anyone told Mr. Miller that it took them about four days to reach 33,000 total attendance! He had them reaching that number the first day!

 

[roymccoy]

raidermatt....that was a good find! Wow, it just goes to show you that analysts can convince themselves (and us sometimes) of just about anything. Everyday on the finance channels you'll hear them try to justify what the stock market is doing. One day it's "the market is down on war fears and gas prices" and the next day it's "the market is up because of consumer confidence." They really don't know WHAT'S going on....anymore so then the rest of us. They just get paid for their opinions.

I think Disney started to believe their own pump about DCA. YOu have to remember that many of these different analysts from Goldman/Sachs, etc got free trips and sneak peeks at DCA. It's hard to not have a glowing opinion of something when someone treats you nice, flies you out, fawns over you and feed's you good.

DCA is a second rate park that will need major $$ to fix. It's in need of a major overhaul and maybe an almost total tear-down. There's really only a couple of things worth saving...the holiday sand castles and the $7 hotdogs. (Just kidding)

Roy

P.S. On many days, the old parking lot would have made more money than DCA!

 

[Another Voice]

What’s the real tragedy about this entire affair is that the how understood these things inside Disney knew this was a disaster (although few guessed the scale of the failure). Those who said anything were at best ignored, many are now working elsewhere. The entire California Adventure affair is a classic case of corporate group thinking and arrogance. The management firmly, absolutely, positively believed that people would swallow anything with the Disney® brand.

With less than one month to the park’s second anniversary there is still no serious attempt to address any of the problems even while the situation gets worse. It’s rumored that simply based on the number of single-day tickets purchased for the park, DCA competes with the Queen Mary in Long Beach as a tourist attraction. And the fact that out of town visitors buy multi-day park hoppers doesn’t mean anything. It’s also rumored that there has been no increase in the average length of stay – even the vacationers aren’t dropping any more money for two parks than they did for just Disneyland alone. Even the annual passes for Disneyland now throw in DCA for free.

In other words Disney dropped $700 million on a new theme park and they aren’t receiving a dime of new revenue from admissions. It’s not surprising that the same analyst “profession” that missed Enron, Tyco, AOL and the like should miss that.

 

[roymccoy]

You know something else tragic about DCA? There is actually LESS to do and see now than when it pathetically opened!

Closed attractions/restaurants:

Superstar Limo
Hollywood and Dine
Maliburritos
Lucky Fortune Cookery
Soap Opera Bistro
Fortune Cookie Machine Walk-up
Mondavi Wine Market/Deli
Backlot Fruit Stand
Nacho/Chili Van in the Backlot
Eureka Parade

Almost never open:

Mullholland Madness
Golden Zephyr


Now to be fair, they have added the four "rides" in the Bugsland and Who wants to be Millionaire (and it's days are numbered, too) but there is still MUCH LESS to do at DCA than when it opened and it's open MANY LESS hours now. It just goes to show ya that even DCA can get worse! (GASP!)

Roy

 

[Luv2Roam]

So seriously, if they closed a few days during the week, would many care?
We have been there (May 2001.)
The main attractions was GRR, Soarin' Screamin' and we really like the sorcerer's workshop. Past that......
I really like the Mailiboomer too. But that is "just" an amusement ride. It's fun. But geez, Des Moines has one of those even.
We are getting a new amusement park within the next few years. I'm guessing we will have one too.
Since one of the heads behind the Council Bluffs (IA) amusement park is an ex-Disney (DLR) management CM, I will be very interested to see the comparison between the two.

 

[airlarry!]

Since one of the heads behind the Council Bluffs (IA) amusement park is an ex-Disney (DLR) management CM, I will be very interested to see the comparison between the two.

Cool! One more fun thing today on our week long trips to Omaha almost every June. We love that Omaha/Council Bluffs area...it feels like Alex Box Stadium North. Baseball, boudin, steaks, and Disney? Awesome.

I'm anxious to see what an ex-Disney guy could bring to that beautiful area.

 

[larworth]

I think Matt's point about the analyst's community ability/desire (or lack thereof) to look past management rhetoric is a good one.

I had forgotten just how bullish they were. If I'm correct, not scoring well in the "knows and understands their market" category is a biggie on the old management report card.

I’ll pass on beating up on DCA, as we did enjoy some parts on our visit. But these quotes did raise a few questions for me:

With Pressler gone, do you think the guaranteed access to DCA for multi-day visitors is no longer in effect? And has anyone heard when one of the Soap Opera Bistro chain units will be opening back East?

 

[PKS44]

But look at what Dan Steinberg wrote in his two part piece for mouseplanet.com in the summer of 2000:
This is a guy whom I would listen to if I were Disney or thinking of investing in Disney...

http://www.mouseplanet.com/dan/ten.htm

http://www.mouseplanet.com/dan/ten1.htm

BTW- I note Dan's last column was 9/11/01- but I emailed to make sure he wasn't lost that day and he was not...he is just too busy with other stuff to write much about Disney...too bad...he's sharp.

 

[Bob O]

Great find, raidermatt!!!!
I guess all believed that if disney built it they would come, were they ever wrong!!!
And speaking of Maliboomer, it is a very weak drop ride, and the stupid plastic face covers it just awful!!!! I have been on alot of drop rides and NONE had that dumb contrapetion!!!!