You have been saying this for years so curiosity finally got the better of me. I looked up on the college boards website the "average" student that gets accepted at the NC State Universities and quite honestly, their numbers are awful. Most of the state U's there accept kids with under 20's on their ACT's, the ok schools accept kids with under 24 and your "best" school has a high end of 27. I don't think that is even close to good, sorry. Most private schools won't even look at you if you don't have AT LEAST a 24 on your ACT and many that number is over 30. From what you are saying and the number of kids that don't make it into your schools REALLY have me wondering...
. Now, it very well may be that the private schools in NC are even worse (I only looked at a couple of those and their numbers weren't any better) but your state schools don't compare to the private schools in most of the rest of the country. SAT scores you see the same results.
Okay, so your kids aren't coming South.
UNC-Chapel Hill is a highly ranked public university and one of the best schools in the country. There is no way you would be accepted at Chapel Hill with a 27 ACT.
State is probably the next best public school.
UNC-G and NCA&T are both large public universities - both excellent in their own ways and both offering many unique and excellent programs.
Asheville, Charlotte, Wilmington, Appalachian, Eastern Carolina and Western Carolina are mid-level public universities and colleges in the public system. All reasonably good, all offering many excellent specialty programs - none considered "top" schools.
The rest of the schools in the public NC system are either specialty arts, historically black or niche. Again, all good options for the right student - none difficult to get into.
There are three excellent private schools in NC - Duke, Wake Forest and Davidson. All top-rated, all extremely competitive and very difficult to get into.
There are several mid-level private schools in NC - again, all with good programs but none terribly renowned. Although I would probably not put Elon into that category - it's becoming more well known and is increasingly improving its program and its student body profile.
That's a fair assessment of NC schools. Most of our "strong average" students go to the ones you ranked as mid-tier schools: Asheville, Charlotte, Wilmington, Appalachian, Eastern Carolina and Western Carolina. I'd add that Charlotte, Wilmington and App are at the top of this category, while the other three are still mid-tier but lower than the other three.
You mentioned our top private schools, which are all outstanding and prestigious, but were polite enough not to mention names of our many mediocre private schools. Most really don't compete with the mid-tier schools mentioned above, though I'm not all that knowledgeable about Elon.
I'd say NC State is our second-best public school IF you're going into the right major (though honestly, that's true of all schools). They're excellent, but their offerings are deep rather than broad. My daughter was in love-love-love with State for many years (has a favorite uncle who went there, and he pushed all things Wolfpack from a young age!). I really thought she'd end up there, but it turns out they've recently dropped their nursing major -- but if you're heading for something engineering or math-related, you'd be in hog heaven at State. My youngest is starting to talk about Architecture, so I wonder if she'll go to State.
I think she just keeps trying to remind people that the cost of attendance at a private may actually end up being less than the cost of attendance at a state school. And this is true. I don't think anyone disputes that or has a problem with that.
And what I keep saying is that this will be true for a few students, but the majority of students will not be offered bucketloads of money, enough to bring the cost of an expensive school to less than the cost of a less expensive school. Sure, it happens occasionally and if you're interested in the more expensive school, it's worth a shot -- but it's not something you can count upon.
This is really interesting--DS13 also plays the bagpipes. He just got his Highland Pipes for Christmas. It's one of the few things he takes very seriously right now--smart kid, grades are currently in the toilet, what can I say? . . . P.S. My son's only in 8th grade, plenty of time for him to turn the grade thing around...or not.
We just had 9th grade Open House last week, so I've been talking to lots of rising freshmen (and their parents) recently. Here's something I say to kids whose parents are concerned about similar things: Your grades in 9th grade are
more important than your grades in 12th grade. (That gets their attention -- so many new high schoolers have the idea that it's okay to goof off the first year and fall back on the "but I'm new" thing.) I tell them that they'll apply to college August-September-October of their senior year . . . and that they'll tell the college, "These are my 9th grade grades, these are my 10th grade grades, these are my 11th grade grades -- and these are the classes I intend to take as a senior. I don't have senior grades yet." Sure, those senior grades matter. The college will look at them to see that you've completed your courses well -- but they're going to admit you or not admit you based upon your first three years of high school.
Okay, maybe it's a bit of a stretch (and I know I'm entirely ignoring GPA because it doesn't suit my argument of the moment), but the point is valid: Colleges will look at those early grades. I've seen more than one rising 9th grader look surprised at this realization, and my daughter's best friend, a girl whose parents have talked to her about college said, "I thought you didn't choose a college 'til
after you finished high school." 9th graders need this kind of guidance!
) keep the student from even putting in an application. At the same time, though, the student should have a range or mix of different choices on their list - in-state state schools, safety schools, reach schools, private schools, schools known for generous merit-aid, schools known for generous need-based aid - because you never know what could happen, both with the school's aid package, with the family finances (the family bread-winner could lose their job, etc.) and with the student. A high school senior can change a lot between application-time (which for us was December 1st for scholarship-apps), kwim? Campus tours can change one's opinion of a school, senior grades can take a nose-dive, they can change their minds about what they want to major in (one of many to come I know), etc.
. FYI-More kids here take the SAT than ACT and our schools have wtd GPA. 
